It seems that ESA tracked the craft over Germany on its final pass, and failed to track it on its next expected pass (0732 UTC), and so it is assumed that it went down at some time before that. But there are no recordings or reports of sightings yet.
The trouble is that a lot of these streams are simply simulating estimates based on current ephemera, and the "current position" is a projection. So even after the spacecraft deorbits and crashes, they may still indicate it's up there somewhere. There is insufficient actual live telemetry or photography to indicate its actual position and status at this time. We'll only know when it's down after it's come down, basically.
It seems that ESA tracked the craft over Germany on its final pass, and failed to track it on its next expected pass (0732 UTC), and so it is assumed that it went down at some time before that. But there are no recordings or reports of sightings yet.
https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/05/07/reentry-predi...
There are currently a few YouTube livestreams with "live tracking" for whatever that's worth. I'm watching this one: https://www.youtube.com/live/MXbMHHvaiJo?si=cKZBkmKsXh-qEjzS
Current prediction is 6:12am UTC (± 3 hours); the red splat projection is on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea.
Here's a guy who has some live telemetry going, if you can deal with commentary in Polish: https://www.youtube.com/live/21QsJBxUOC4?si=cQBnVyYxuROsFDVJ
What exactly is that stream tracking? I don’t see any “about” info.
The trouble is that a lot of these streams are simply simulating estimates based on current ephemera, and the "current position" is a projection. So even after the spacecraft deorbits and crashes, they may still indicate it's up there somewhere. There is insufficient actual live telemetry or photography to indicate its actual position and status at this time. We'll only know when it's down after it's come down, basically.