14 comments

  • muzani 10 hours ago ago

    https://feargreedmeter.com/

    Somehow the stock market is even more fearful than crypto today.

    • giantg2 5 hours ago ago

      I wonder how that's calculated. The traditional measure is ^VIX, which not very high at all right now.

      • sloaken 2 hours ago ago

        I am so glad you asked that.

        The fear greed index appears to be the same value as the CNN one. The CNN one has a link to explain it. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

        Being the pessimist I am I wonder when and how they change their criteria.

      • treetalker 3 hours ago ago

        That's the scary part

  • simianwords 8 hours ago ago

    You seem really confident that it is a bubble. Do you have a short position? Or do you want to make a concrete bet on it?

    If the valuation of OpenAI in 6 months is not less than what it is now, would you gracefully agree you were wrong?

    • ekr 7 hours ago ago

      It's still a bubble, even if it doesn't or won't at all implode. It's a bubble because the underlying economic realities don't come anywhere close to the current valuation. I.e. it's all so inflated due to speculation.

      6 months is nothing and doesn't say anything. But AI is just the frothing on top of the debt bubble, and all the cheap money that is still circulating around the economy. What I'm personally doing is taking on an asset allocation that would weather a potential downfall.

      • simianwords 4 hours ago ago

        this is a weak argument. if a bubble doesn't pop it is not a bubble. you can't keep claiming it is a bubble for 10 years

    • giantg2 5 hours ago ago

      It seems the AI bubble may be starting to pop for some, like plantir and nvidia.

  • ChrisArchitect 9 hours ago ago
  • rvz 10 hours ago ago

    Well you will never see that ever on the front page of HN.

    Why is that?

    Maybe it is likely that the AI bubble has reached its final stage and is close to popping and those with unjustified valuations will get obliterated when it crashes.

    • zerosizedweasle 10 hours ago ago

      During a recent interview with podcaster and OpenAI investor Brad Gerstner, Altman lost his cool when he was asked outright how it all adds up.

      “How can a company with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments?” Gerstner asked him. “You’ve heard the criticism, Sam.”

      “If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer,” a taken-aback Altman replied curtly. “Enough.”

      Surprised by the confrontation, Gerstner let out a laugh in response.

      https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/sam-altman-lose...

      • AnimalMuppet 2 hours ago ago

        > “If you want to sell your shares, I’ll find you a buyer,” a taken-aback Altman replied curtly.

        Uh huh. So, why is OpenAI seeking federal backing, if Altman is that confident that he can find buyers? (Which I am vehemently against. I do not want the US taxpayer to be the bagholder of last resort.)

    • davydm 10 hours ago ago

      we can only hope - this bubble is particularly tiring with all the evangelists desperately trying to get me to use their shitware