”Elon Musk’s comment about the inevitability of civil war in Britain might have been flippant. But similar concerns have been raised by journalists and academics within established democracies that over the possibility of civil conflict escalating to civil war”
>On April 21 2021, in a letter also signed by a group of retired officers, a former officer in France’s Ground Force, Jean-Pierre Fabre-Bernadac, made a stark warning. Published in the magazine Valuers Actuelles it denounced the growing chaos of French life, and warned of ‘racial’ and ‘civil’ war if nothing is done to prevent it,.
Ah yes, 21st of April, date of the failed Algiers putsch against De Gaulle.
> Elon Musk’s comment about the inevitability of civil war in Britain might have been flippant.
It is IMHO a mistake to view Elon Musk’s comment as merely "flippant". We should take the risk from "Elon Musk’s comments stoking civil war", and his personal platform to amplify radicalism and propagandise hatred, very seriously.
Even if the civil war that he fantasises about is currently a nonsense.
Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others who can only see what's right in front of them.
In this case, Musk (and many others) only extrapolate the trends at play for 50+ years to their logical conclusion, and actually I'd say that denying this it's becoming more and more a case of ostrich syndrome.
What do you think Musk is trying to do here? His purpose is not coolly to assess the probability of a certain outcome (nobody asked him to do that!) but rather to make that outcome more probable.
Imho it is more likely that he is using it to consolidate a voting bloc. Much like how all the partisan propaganda in the US of civil war convinced right wingers to rally around Trump and left wingers to not take it seriously. If you think that they will try to overthrow your way of life, you'll simultaneously announce you are prepared to defend yourself and - more importantly - you'll vote for whatever resembles your way of life.
Elon doesn't profit from chaos, he is just using psychological manipulation to empower his allies.
Well, you also qualify your "nonsense" claim by "currently". This is the point, IMHO. No-one claims that civil war is imminent but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories.
> but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories.
I think this too is utter nonsense. Too much of the twitter brainrot.
But it does highlight the dangers that this poses, that people can easily fall into it as you have done. So, Mr Musk's incitement is a danger to you and others. Even if the "civil war" remains someone's fantasy.
HN is supposed to foster discussion and curiosity. I presented arguments to attempt to show that what Musk wrote is a least a plausible scenario (and the LSE link shows that this is taken seriously), whatever will actually happen (so "inevitable" is probably the interesting aspect to debate), whatever I think of Musk, and whatever I think of those issues in general. You keep being dangerously close to simply trolling...
You were presenting talking points from the racist "great replacement" conspiracy theory and hoping that no-one notices. They did and it was flagged out. This is not coherent argument, it is inflammatory rhetoric.
> the rise of Islam ... riots caused by this instability.
Oh, the Muslims were rioting were they? Is that what you're saying?
Funny that you don't blame the riots on the people who were actually rioting. You make it sounds like it's inevitable and they had no choice. I reject that. You are using convoluted phrasing to obscure what is what.
> Musk made his comment during
Musk was not "making comment during", he was inciting further violence.
> You keep being dangerously close to simply trolling...
This is all very disingenuous, and so you do not deserve serious response. I am not obligated to debate civilly with extremists.
Sophistry is reasoning that seems right but is actually meant to mislead or trick people
typical bullshit, framing a few examples of what the wanker Musks says, into a "black or white", "them against us", Vaxers or anti-vaxers, rich or poor, scenario with no middle ground.
Trying to manipulate and influence the outcome and keep people who are already angry, more angry, angry equals clicks.
There is not, and will not be a civil war, its just poor reporting shit.
> There is not, and will not be a civil war, its just poor reporting shit.
Agreed, but that doesn't make Mr Musk's ravings harmless. He is a powerful man, promoting deranged violent fantasies. It could cause harm. Arguably already has, see the last event where he addressed the crowds over video.
The London School of Economics is taking the risk of civil war seriously, with many observers and experts having expressed concern. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/taking-warnings-of...
”Elon Musk’s comment about the inevitability of civil war in Britain might have been flippant. But similar concerns have been raised by journalists and academics within established democracies that over the possibility of civil conflict escalating to civil war”
>On April 21 2021, in a letter also signed by a group of retired officers, a former officer in France’s Ground Force, Jean-Pierre Fabre-Bernadac, made a stark warning. Published in the magazine Valuers Actuelles it denounced the growing chaos of French life, and warned of ‘racial’ and ‘civil’ war if nothing is done to prevent it,.
Ah yes, 21st of April, date of the failed Algiers putsch against De Gaulle.
And interestingly, in France this is all a continuation of that period...
> Elon Musk’s comment about the inevitability of civil war in Britain might have been flippant.
It is IMHO a mistake to view Elon Musk’s comment as merely "flippant". We should take the risk from "Elon Musk’s comments stoking civil war", and his personal platform to amplify radicalism and propagandise hatred, very seriously.
Even if the civil war that he fantasises about is currently a nonsense.
Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others who can only see what's right in front of them.
In this case, Musk (and many others) only extrapolate the trends at play for 50+ years to their logical conclusion, and actually I'd say that denying this it's becoming more and more a case of ostrich syndrome.
> Sometimes what people predict is referred to as "nonsense" because they manage to infer things based on trends over a longer term than others
Or it's just wishful thinking. Musk's comments generally suggest he has no idea about the UK.
What do you think Musk is trying to do here? His purpose is not coolly to assess the probability of a certain outcome (nobody asked him to do that!) but rather to make that outcome more probable.
Imho it is more likely that he is using it to consolidate a voting bloc. Much like how all the partisan propaganda in the US of civil war convinced right wingers to rally around Trump and left wingers to not take it seriously. If you think that they will try to overthrow your way of life, you'll simultaneously announce you are prepared to defend yourself and - more importantly - you'll vote for whatever resembles your way of life.
Elon doesn't profit from chaos, he is just using psychological manipulation to empower his allies.
I'm not saying you're always wrong in the abstract "sometimes" that you pose. But I stand what I said about Mr Musk specifically in this case.
Well, you also qualify your "nonsense" claim by "currently". This is the point, IMHO. No-one claims that civil war is imminent but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories.
> but it does look inevitable if the trends at play keep their trajectories.
I think this too is utter nonsense. Too much of the twitter brainrot.
But it does highlight the dangers that this poses, that people can easily fall into it as you have done. So, Mr Musk's incitement is a danger to you and others. Even if the "civil war" remains someone's fantasy.
[flagged]
> cannot simply be dismissed as "utter nonsense" and "twitter brainrot".
I refer you to my earlier statement where I did just that.
> .... non-European immigration ... the rise of Islam ... you need to ask how this ends.
yep, standard-issue brainrot.
edit in case it's not clear, the burden of proof is on the person making the unsubstantiated lurid claims about "civil war".
HN is supposed to foster discussion and curiosity. I presented arguments to attempt to show that what Musk wrote is a least a plausible scenario (and the LSE link shows that this is taken seriously), whatever will actually happen (so "inevitable" is probably the interesting aspect to debate), whatever I think of Musk, and whatever I think of those issues in general. You keep being dangerously close to simply trolling...
> I presented arguments to attempt to show
You were presenting talking points from the racist "great replacement" conspiracy theory and hoping that no-one notices. They did and it was flagged out. This is not coherent argument, it is inflammatory rhetoric.
> the rise of Islam ... riots caused by this instability.
Oh, the Muslims were rioting were they? Is that what you're saying?
Funny that you don't blame the riots on the people who were actually rioting. You make it sounds like it's inevitable and they had no choice. I reject that. You are using convoluted phrasing to obscure what is what.
> Musk made his comment during
Musk was not "making comment during", he was inciting further violence.
> You keep being dangerously close to simply trolling...
This is all very disingenuous, and so you do not deserve serious response. I am not obligated to debate civilly with extremists.
Gotta stop feeding the trolls with this nonsense, Peter.
only for the terminally online
My Mrs. has no idea who Elon Musk is, let alone his political positions.
yet another example of media sophistry.
Sophistry is reasoning that seems right but is actually meant to mislead or trick people
typical bullshit, framing a few examples of what the wanker Musks says, into a "black or white", "them against us", Vaxers or anti-vaxers, rich or poor, scenario with no middle ground.
Trying to manipulate and influence the outcome and keep people who are already angry, more angry, angry equals clicks.
There is not, and will not be a civil war, its just poor reporting shit.
Its not news its an opinion
> There is not, and will not be a civil war, its just poor reporting shit.
Agreed, but that doesn't make Mr Musk's ravings harmless. He is a powerful man, promoting deranged violent fantasies. It could cause harm. Arguably already has, see the last event where he addressed the crowds over video.