With those test parameters for how long it would take a human to complete the same work, it fits a similar pattern to METR; i.e. at "humans would take 11.5 hours" (Figure 4, median) you're pushing your luck for any success with all but the most recent models*, and METR is testing software where AI has the possibility of fully automating a lot of its own tests.
Even more recent models than they tested, like Opus 4.5, are only 50% successful for tasks that take humans 5h20m: https://metr.org/time-horizons/
Assuming the bubble doesn't pop/WW3 doesn't start first (IDK, 25% and 5% respectively?), and if trends continue (???), I expect a similar paper this time next year to show something like 50% success at automation of similar tasks.
* which they didn't test, I don't blame them for that because this field moves too fast
Actual paper: https://www.remotelabor.ai/paper.pdf
Sounds about right.
With those test parameters for how long it would take a human to complete the same work, it fits a similar pattern to METR; i.e. at "humans would take 11.5 hours" (Figure 4, median) you're pushing your luck for any success with all but the most recent models*, and METR is testing software where AI has the possibility of fully automating a lot of its own tests.
Even more recent models than they tested, like Opus 4.5, are only 50% successful for tasks that take humans 5h20m: https://metr.org/time-horizons/
Assuming the bubble doesn't pop/WW3 doesn't start first (IDK, 25% and 5% respectively?), and if trends continue (???), I expect a similar paper this time next year to show something like 50% success at automation of similar tasks.
* which they didn't test, I don't blame them for that because this field moves too fast
translation: "96% of people trying to replace workers with AI don't know how to prompt it effectively or supervise its output."
The 4% is using it to write posts about ai on linkedin.
So what you're saying is the interface fails the common case?
96% are "holding it wrong".
There's a saying that if everywhere you go it smells like shit, you might just have some shit smeared on your own nose.
96% is not "holding it wrong".