Section 122 caps at 15% and expires in 150 days without Congress. So I would assume this is a "negotiating position", not a trade regime.
I'm more interested to see how the Fed reads it, since tariffs map directly into cost-push shocks that force a dual mandate tradeoff between inflation and employment. Covered this angle recently: https://philippdubach.com/posts/dual-mandate-tensions/
The wild thing is Republicans would probably keep the House if Miller et al let the illegal tariffs expire. The tax cut would probably even give the Fed room to cut rates. Not sure who in the White House is most directly pushing for these. But they're clearly hurting both America and Trump.
Peter Navarro is the tariff lover, probably told stories about tariff golden age of old to trump. Lutnick seems to like them as a tool to enrich himself.
I don't think they're going to lose the House over just one thing. The economy feels fundamentally broken in some sense that doesn't seem to show up in statistics. (Affordability plus job mobility, maybe?) Tariffs are only a part of that. But there's also the brutality and thuggishness of the ICE crackdown. There's the rule by executive order, sidelining Congress. There's the constant trampling of norms and precedent (and even the Constitution). There's the rampant egomania and attention-seeking. There's the corruption and graft. There's the rambling, disjointed speech that makes one wonder if he's all there. There's Epstein. There's the "peace president" attacking Venezuela and threatening to go to war against Iran. There's the incompetence and buffoonery of the Cabinet.
It just goes on and on and on. Cutting tariffs is not going to be anywhere near enough to save the Republicans in the midterms.
you can add in that the trip to China next month will be eventless, as whatever wildly dirty deal they want from Zi will be politely ignored, some sort of cringe thing trying to trade looking the other way on Taiwan for stabbing Russia in the back, or worse.
Who thought that putting a serial bankruptcy artist in charge of the nation's economy was a good idea?
The whole premise of tariffs leading to US manufacturing is a blatant lie. Raising the cost of raw materials (copper, aluminum, steel, wood, electroncs) while ridding ourselves of cheap labor isn't going to encourage manufacturing in the USA. It does the opposite.
Educated enough to recognize blatant and proven lies when they hear them.
For example, the oft repeated lie that foreign countries would pay his illegal tariffs.
Educated enough to know that calls from this adminstration to "punish" the NY Fed for pointing out this lie would be in direct violation of the 1st Amendment.
No. If 2016-2020 wasn't enough "education" to warn people not to re-elect Trump, it's absurd to continue to believe that's the problem. You can fix ignorance with education, but you can't fix stupidity or malice.
Section 122 caps at 15% and expires in 150 days without Congress. So I would assume this is a "negotiating position", not a trade regime.
I'm more interested to see how the Fed reads it, since tariffs map directly into cost-push shocks that force a dual mandate tradeoff between inflation and employment. Covered this angle recently: https://philippdubach.com/posts/dual-mandate-tensions/
Art of the deal is working well huh.
The wild thing is Republicans would probably keep the House if Miller et al let the illegal tariffs expire. The tax cut would probably even give the Fed room to cut rates. Not sure who in the White House is most directly pushing for these. But they're clearly hurting both America and Trump.
Peter Navarro is the tariff lover, probably told stories about tariff golden age of old to trump. Lutnick seems to like them as a tool to enrich himself.
I don't think they're going to lose the House over just one thing. The economy feels fundamentally broken in some sense that doesn't seem to show up in statistics. (Affordability plus job mobility, maybe?) Tariffs are only a part of that. But there's also the brutality and thuggishness of the ICE crackdown. There's the rule by executive order, sidelining Congress. There's the constant trampling of norms and precedent (and even the Constitution). There's the rampant egomania and attention-seeking. There's the corruption and graft. There's the rambling, disjointed speech that makes one wonder if he's all there. There's Epstein. There's the "peace president" attacking Venezuela and threatening to go to war against Iran. There's the incompetence and buffoonery of the Cabinet.
It just goes on and on and on. Cutting tariffs is not going to be anywhere near enough to save the Republicans in the midterms.
The economy feels fundamentally broken in some sense that doesn't seem to show up in statistics.
Turns out that it's amazing what you can do for the economy simply by putting your cronies in charge of the numbers.
If these people tell you that 2+2=4, you should double-check with two calculators and Wolfram Alpha.
They have fired the honest people who reported numbers they did not like.
Anything that they publish should be considered untrustworthy. Anything they say should be considered unreliable.
It used to be "trust but verify", now it is "don't trust, seek a different source". It is sad, but reality now.
you can add in that the trip to China next month will be eventless, as whatever wildly dirty deal they want from Zi will be politely ignored, some sort of cringe thing trying to trade looking the other way on Taiwan for stabbing Russia in the back, or worse.
Who thought that putting a serial bankruptcy artist in charge of the nation's economy was a good idea?
The whole premise of tariffs leading to US manufacturing is a blatant lie. Raising the cost of raw materials (copper, aluminum, steel, wood, electroncs) while ridding ourselves of cheap labor isn't going to encourage manufacturing in the USA. It does the opposite.
And the stats show this:
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2026/2...
Aside from raw materials, manufacturing in the 21st century will be about two things --- robotics and low cost energy.
Most high pay manufacturing jobs are gone like a '59 Cadillac, they ain't never coming back. Trump is pulling yet another con by claiming otherwise.
This man is not well.
The country that elected him twice is also not well.
The basic problem is failure to educate.
educated to vote for the candidate that you like better?
Educated enough to recognize blatant and proven lies when they hear them.
For example, the oft repeated lie that foreign countries would pay his illegal tariffs.
Educated enough to know that calls from this adminstration to "punish" the NY Fed for pointing out this lie would be in direct violation of the 1st Amendment.
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is...
It's not a problem, it's a strategy
If so then it is a bad one that we all will pay for.
Seems like the US is doing okay on the OECD PISA benchmark though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_for_International_St...
In mathematics, the U.S. ranks 28th out of 37 OECD countries.
In science, the U.S. ranks 12th.
Yes, hence "okay".
Excerpts from the 2022 PISA math scores:
#1: Singapore: 575
#10: Netherlands: 493
#20: Finland: 484
#22: Sweden: 482
OECD average: 472
#30: Italy: 471
#32: Norway: 468
#34: US: 465
...
#81: Cambodia: 336
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Programme_for_International_St...)
No. If 2016-2020 wasn't enough "education" to warn people not to re-elect Trump, it's absurd to continue to believe that's the problem. You can fix ignorance with education, but you can't fix stupidity or malice.