“To simplify greatly, the strategy of non-violence aims first to cause disruption (non-violently) in order both to draw attention but also in order to bait state overreaction. The state’s overreaction then becomes the ‘spectacular attack’ which broadcasts the movement’s message, while the group’s willingness to endure that overreaction without violence not only avoids alienating supporters, it heightens the contrast between the unjust state and the just movement.
That reaction maintains support for the movement, but at the same time disruption does not stop: the movements growing popularity enable new recruits to replace those arrested (just as with insurgent recruitment) rendering the state incapable of restoring order. The state’s supporters may grow to sympathize with the movement, but at the very least they grow impatient with the disruption, which as you will recall refuses to stop.
As support for state repression of the movement declines (because repression is not stopping the disruption) and the movement itself proves impossible to extinguish (because repression is recruiting for it), the only viable solution becomes giving the movement its demands.”
The book Brett uses as his main source, Waging A Good War, is an incredible book that I strongly recommend. It treats the Civil Rights movement as a military campaign and analyzes it from the perspective of a military historian.
Not in the sense that it was viewed as a war by the protestors, but in the sense that the logistics, training, and operations of the Civil Rights movement were a well oiled machine that looked like a well organized, but nonviolent, army (including counterexamples where there was no organization).
One of the most memorable details is how James Lawson trained in nonviolence under Ghandi and came over to train protestors in nonviolent tactics. They gathered in church basements to scream insults and spit on each other to prepare for the restaurant sitins and other ops.
> the only viable solution becomes giving the movement its demands.
This interpretation reeks of Western naivete. Students were not merely arrested — they were gunned down en masse in the streets and even in hospitals. They were provoked by the U.S. president, who promised support to take on the institutions, but that support never materialized. The likely endgame of this current gunboat diplomacy is similar to Venezuela: the U.S. secures resource access while leaving the existing system intact, and the student protesters are hunted down. In other words, nothing changes for the people demanding reform.
As you can see in this article the non-Western Tolstoy was influenced by many non-Western religious and philosophical figures. Tolstoy then influenced the non-Western Mahatma Gandhi to successfully implement these ideas.
While Russia is not quite a western country, the European upper classes around St. Petersburg and Moscow were no less "western" in philosophy and thought than people from nearby Latvia, Ukraine or Finland.
Tolstoy delighted in Schopenhauer, a western philosopher who he based much of his later ideas on. And yes, Tolstoy was later influenced by eastern thought, and was famously a Sinophile, but that is, again, a western tendency common among upper class europeans of the period (along with Japonisme).
Furthermore, "War and Peace" is often called one of the greatest works of "western literature". It's even included in Encyclopedia Brittanica's "Great Books of the Western World".
Just because the Russian Empire wasn't universally western doesn't mean large groups of people within were not. My own great grandparents came to America from St. Petersburg and considered themselves western.
The only thing that can make Russia "western" is if you equate white and western.
MAGA is western, because it is American. Russia is not western, because it is neither europe nor america. And they themselves consider themselves east. And did for over a hundred years.
If you have traveled a bit around the world, and first hand experienced different cultures, you will recognize that Russia of Moscow/Petersburg and other big cities is much closer to 'west' than to 'east' of China/India/Japan/Mongolia/Indonesia.
Maybe not western enough for you, it does have a distinct flavour (but then Sicilia is also distinctly different from Sweden), but still much closer to Europe than to Asia proper.
> The only thing that can make Russia "western" is if you equate white and western.
The thing that makes it western is similarity of culture, philosophy, religion, social structure, historic exchange and cross-pollination. [0] All of which exist well within the range set by countries that you would have no qualms of calling western.
It is very similar to the rest of Europe on all those axes, in a way that Indian, East Asian, Middle Eastern, Native American, African[1], Polynesian culture, philosophy, and structures are not.
Yes, there are some peculiarities about it that the anglosphere finds alien. The same can be said for any distinct culture within the western sphere.
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[0] Keep in mind that when I am speaking of Russia, my claims cannot be generalized among all of the ~100 ethnic and cultural groups that compose it. Just of the ones that make up the country's political center.
[1] I am speaking from a position of incredible ignorance when I just roll up an entire continent into 'African'. It's quite likely that people who know their ass from their elbow would be able to tell me why I'm wrong to do so.
You are responding to a short quote from the article. This quote works with some assumtions, which are also discussed in the article. It is not naivete, the article is an interpretation of facts, including those when non-violent protests didn't work. We can disagree with the interpretation, but even if I know a way to do it, we just can't do it dealing with this small quote taken out of the context.
The author is "an ancient and military historian who currently teaches as a Teaching Assistant Professor at North Carolina State University" [1].
> Students were not merely arrested — they were gunned down en masse in the streets and even in hospitals
Non-violent doesn't mean peaceful.
People died in our Civil Rights protests. People died in the Indian independence and the Phillipines' People Power Revolution. Each of their leaders were gunned down, and the last won in an autocracy. (Even if you only read the blurb, the state's violent overreaction is part of the parcel.)
> They were provoked by the U.S.
Lots of Americans think the world revolves around us. The truth is we have less influence than we think. We didn't provoke these protests, though we did give them false hope.
> the U.S. secures resource access while leaving the existing system intact, and the student protesters are hunted down
Which opposition figure is being hunted down in Venezuela under Rodriguez?
This article is on my to-read list and I am a great fan of Mr. Devereaux's work. But I also feel like promoting non-violence outside the context of western democracies is misleading and potentially dangerous. Maybe he addresses it somewhere in the article but I have yet to read it so forgive me if he does.
But how does he explain the failure of peaceful revolutions in Belarus or China?
My understanding of social dynamics is that being peaceful only works as long as it gains you more supporters than you lose by government action against the movement. Some governments give in but if not, at some point, the scale tips and violence or surrender are your only options.
In Belarus, I knew they were fucked as soon as I heard that police support the protests by putting down their guns and joining the protesters.
They gave up their ability to use violence and therefore became as irrelevant as the other protesters. They should have kept their guns. They should have tried to use their openly armed protest to incite other armed people to also join. At some point, the potential violence would materialize but hopefully at that point, enough of the armed people would be on the side of the protest.
Maybe the dictator would give up if he saw the situation spiraling out of control (and hopefully be executed as punishment anyway).
Maybe the dictator would try to flee and get caught and executed ("gunned down"). Maybe his bunker would get overrun.
Maybe someone close to him would try to get favor from the protesters and kill him.
But all of those potential outcomes were closed off if people opposing him didn't have enough guns.
> feel like promoting non-violence outside the context of western democracies is misleading and potentially dangerous
The article discusses "efforts, in a sense, directed against the state itself, both violent approaches (what we might call ‘terroristic insurgency’) and non-violent approaches (protest)" (Id.).
> Maybe he addresses it somewhere in the article but I have yet to read it
"The ‘center of gravity’ – the locus of the most important strategic objective – for most insurgencies thus often becomes the political support that sustains a government, be that a body of key supporters in non-democratic regimes or the voters in democratic ones. That body of key voters or supporters, of course, is often not even located in the theater of operations at all: the Taliban ultimately won their insurgency in Afghanistan because they persuaded American voters that the war was no longer worth the cost, leading to the election of leaders promising to pull the plug on the war" (Id.).
> how does he explain the failure of peaceful revolutions in Belarus or China?
"All that said, there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest. This isn’t really the place to talk about the broader concept of ‘coup proofing’ and how authoritarian regimes secure internal security, repression and legitimacy in detail. But a certain kind of regime operates effectively as a society-within-a-society, with an armed subset of the population as insiders who receive benefits in status and wealth from the regime in return for their willingness to do violence to maintain it. Such regimes are generally all too willing to gun down thousands or tens of thousands of protestors to maintain power.
The late Assad regime in Syria stands as a clear example of this, as evidently does the current regime in Iran. Such regimes are not immune to an ‘attack on will,’ but they have substantially insulated themselves from it and resistance to these regimes, if it continues, often metastasizes into insurgency or protracted war (as with the above example of Syria) because the pressure has nowhere else to go" (Id.).
Thanks, looking forward to reading the full article myself.
Hopefully there's more about how these regimes have failed in the past and how to make them fail in the future. Because AFAICT at that point, violence is the only possibility apart from waiting for the dictator to die from natural causes and the system to disassemble itself as potential successors fight each other.
His is a very idealistic take which weirdly omits that every major example of non-violent protest working to topple a regime involved some foreign super power spending trillions of dollars to wage very much violent wars for the purpose. The insight that he's missing in so many words is that you need to crack the door open just enough for a foreign (super)power to want to come barging in for some reason. Non-violent protests might work as good optics for this, but good optics don't launch rockets on the enemy.
> there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest.
This sounds like a cop-out to the original blanket statement, or at least this is how I interpret it from your earlier quote. Regimes copy methodologies from others wherever possible and learn from failure to coup-proof themselves faster than the population can keep up. This is why most authoritarian regimes have endured for so long despite many being otherwise failed states, and almost always need some sort of external covert or military intervention to tip the scales.
It's like saying that you can hit the target every time by just meditating. And having a professional take the shot for you.
> insight that he's missing in so many words is that you need to crack the door open just enough for a foreign (super)power to want to come barging in for some reason
No foreign superpower barged into the Civil Rights or the Indian independence movement. Not directly. (If we’re counting hypothetical foreign involvement that’s a geopolitical constant.)
> sounds like a cop-out to the original blanket statement
And no excerpt from an article will do a full reading justice. The article makes no blanket statements, its entire thesis is armed insurgency and protest are strategic twins.
> learn from failure to coup-proof themselves faster than the population can keep up
Institutional memory is longer than individual memory. What drove this point home for me was an article about how the police on London can predict whether a protest will turn violent and that they know how to corral people depending on which outcome they want.
But for now, institutions still at least rely on individuals to retain the experience/memories/skills and individuals have their own agency and can leave the organization or die.
>> They were provoked by the U.S. president, who promised support to take on the institutions, but that support never materialized
> Lots of Americans think the world revolves around us. The truth is we have less influence than we think. We didn't provoke these protests, though we did give them false hope.
Sorry, but you're just wrong in this case. The US president absolutely had a huge impact here. Meaning it wasn't just "hope": if he hadn't said and done what he did, the protests and deaths absolutely would not have occurred at the same scale. I'll post an article for reference, but you will find more on this if you look.
> if he hadn't said and done what he did, the protests and deaths absolutely would not have occurred at the same scale
The Guardian interviewing a handful of people, one of whom is a random protester in Iran, doesn’t establish this absolutely in any serious framework. The fact that the protests have recurred should give pause to your hypothesis.
Even setting aside my disagreements with the current President, the US has an atrocious track record when it comes to following through with support. Why on earth would they believe him?
They didn't. It's called a Schelling point to solve the coordination problem. You don't get the luxury of picking and choosing your Schelling points a la carte. They come rarely and when they come you have to act or the window passes.
One, we have no evidence they did. The claim that kids put themselves in front of guns forty days ago and again today because of Trump's tweets is extraordinary.
Two, if they did, it's because they're desperate. I can't imagine Iranians actually want the shah back. But they know rallying around the shah's image pisses off the regime. In that way, it's actually smart to wave his flag around if it means someone on the other side missteps.
No, The Guardian interviewing a single protestor in Iran isn’t an open-and-shut case. We have plenty of people tweeting just about everything from Iran. But we don’t yet know how these protests were formed and led, who did the organizing, et cetera. That means we don’t have the data to build a counter factual with yet, and anyone pretending they do is revealing their credibility.
> No, The Guardian interviewing a single protestor in Iran isn’t an open-and-shut case. We have plenty of people tweeting just about everything from Iran. But we don’t yet know how these protests were formed and led, who did the organizing, et cetera. That means we don’t have the data to build a counter factual with yet, and anyone pretending they do is revealing their credibility.
Have you read the news about this? Do you seriously think there's only one protester claiming this that we have any knowledge of, with one outlet reporting on it? Just because I gave one link to get you started that doesn't mean there isn't more if you look for it.
Nobody ever said "this is an open-and-shut case" either. Nor was anybody expecting a scientific proof. The sentence was "there is no evidence," and I produced one such, and you moved the goalposts.
I'll leave one more link here but you can believe whatever you want, it's a waste of time arguing here.
I saw acoup and preceded to read the 11,000 word essay in full. It gave an excellent overview of Clausewitz theory of war and how it maps to the civil rights movement and the modern non violent anti ice protests. Highly recommend to passerbys as regardless of your political affiliation it makes understanding why protests like the one these students engage in are so prevalent
And if the state is slow to overreact the puppeteers that stage the thing will make sure the overreaction happens on time: they will try to provoke backfire or they just plain kill some protesters themselves and make it look as if the state was involved.
This works against relatively liberal governments. It didn’t work for the Tiananmen Square protestors in 1989 or for the intermittent Iranian protestors of the past couple decades because those regimes were willing to suppress those protests with overwhelming force. Fortunately, the Iranian protestors are likely to have some overwhelming force on their side soon.
Fair. I think a better way of putting it is that they lacked the unity to agree to just keep firing on people until they won. A relatively liberal culture is one reason government forces won't do that; in the case of someone like Ceausescu it was more that the generals tended to think his last few years had been a disaster and the rebels had a point.
From my naive observation, the regimes of Eastern Europe had lost their will to perpetuate. (Everybody saw, including party apparatchiks, that the people in the west have better lives. Or at least better goods. :-) )
The cynical take would be that the (smarter) communists in power prepared themselves for the transition, positioning themselves to benefit after the change.
I’m glad it didn’t work in 1989 because China would not have become the technical behemoth it is now if those protests had succeeded. At the same time I don’t want China to succeed and export its brand of capitofascism purely because I don’t think most other countries can find their benevolent dictator. The cognitive dissonance is wild right now.
> because China would not have become the technical behemoth it is now if those protests had succeeded
Taiwan's GDP/capita is 2.6x China's [1]. It grew faster, for longer, in large part through high technology.
Counterfactuals are always hard in history. But we literally have the nationalist government's democratic, capitalist successor kicking in way above its weight class economically and technologically. It's fair to say that if the '89 protest hadn't been massacred, the 21st century would currently be undoubtedly China's to rule. (I'd also put even odds on Taiwan having peacefully reunified by now.)
It’s much easier to increase the GDP per capita for 20 million people compared to 1.4 billion especially when Taiwan started with a 10x higher GDP per capita. If anything they have lost a significant percentage of their lead. I don’t think what worked in Taiwan would work in China because the scale is astounding.
First, note that Taiwan was initially not democracy, the liberalization started by lifting of martial law in 1987, first parliamentary elections in 1992, first presidential elections in 1996 (this is widely considered the point at which Taiwan became a consolidated democracy)
From your link:
1987: Taiwan 5325, China 300
1996: Taiwan 13588, China 710
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2024 Taiwan 34060, China 13314
Whatever starting point you choose, China has risen faster than Taiwan.
In fact, there is non-zero chance that if China had a regime change and heeded west's economic 'advice', it would have gone through equivalent of what Russia went in the 90's.
They are doing fine, thank you, doing it their commie way, despite Zeihan and others preaching China's immminent collapse for decades.
This seems to only have a good track record in places with a democratic tradition. Some dictators have figured out you can just imprison and kill the opposition, and keep doing this until there is no more opposition.
The Khomeini government is not going to just say "oh, you're right" and change. Neither will the Kim or Putin governments. Sometimes - sadly - violence is the least worst answer.
> seems to only have a good track record in places with a democratic tradition
"All that said, there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest. This isn’t really the place to talk about the broader concept of ‘coup proofing’ and how authoritarian regimes secure internal security, repression and legitimacy in detail. But a certain kind of regime operates effectively as a society-within-a-society, with an armed subset of the population as insiders who receive benefits in status and wealth from the regime in return for their willingness to do violence to maintain it. Such regimes are generally all too willing to gun down thousands or tens of thousands of protestors to maintain power.
The late Assad regime in Syria stands as a clear example of this, as evidently does the current regime in Iran. Such regimes are not immune to an ‘attack on will,’ but they have substantially insulated themselves from it and resistance to these regimes, if it continues, often metastasizes into insurgency or protracted war (as with the above example of Syria) because the pressure has nowhere else to go" (Id.).
Don't say sadly. Don't further the indoctrination that violence is bad.
It is a tool, it cannot be good or bad. States are the most prolific users of violence (even more when you also count potential/threatened, not yet materialized). Anyone who wants to claim that violence is bad has to oppose the existence of states.
Violence is risky, dangerous, unpredictable, costly, etc. But those are practical and legal, not moral, concerns.
Violence is also necessary, as you say, against governments or other actors which cannot be deterred, stopped or punished using other means.
Violence is also most effective when it's certain and overwhelming/indefensible. If we lived in a world where dictators and their flying monkeys get regularly shot or droned to death, we wouldn't have dictators. Not because they'd all end up dead but because nobody would dare try becoming or supporting one.
This is why we have to publicly support _proportional_ punishment of dictators and their supporters, both now and after they've been removed from power. Good people have to use the same tools as bad ones (after all, they are just tools, not good or bad).
> Don't say sadly...It is a tool, it cannot be good or bad
It's not just a tool, it's also a human action. An action that exacts consequences on its victim and its wielder. Necessary and regrettable aren't exclusive.
On the contrary, target is a neutral word, justifying the violence against a target is exactly as difficult as it should be - based on the circumstances instead of emotions.
Victim already implies wrongdoing so it makes justifying just violence harder than it should be.
For the record, i often use target instead of victim when talking about harassment, bullying, rape, etc. because it also doesn't imply surrender to the aggressor or lack of agency.
Some tools are definitely better than others. Also some tools are not "the right tool" for the job.
Fundamentally though I'm not sure I agree with you. Violence is often an emotional reaction. When violence is used as a tool it is usually (always?) used by bad people.
If it helps you reconcile my worldview, I absolutely oppose the existence of states.
Keep in mind this needs to be judged separately in the legal, practical and moral dimension. For example a state might determine that a person _legally_ deserves to spend 10 years in prison. But the same state will attack you in turn if you abduct that person and hold them for 10 years in similar conditions to prison because _practically_, it weakens the state's monopoly on violence, even if _morally_ that action can be justified (i.e. because if a punishment is just there is no moral reason why it should matter who carries it out).
> often ... usually (always?)
I think the crux lies in how we quantify this. If you live in a western democracy, almost all of the violence you come into contact with or hear about is in fact used by bad individuals (thiefs, gang members, drunks, etc.) or the mentally ill. But even then you have the right (moral and usually legal) to defend yourself.
If you live in other places, that violence might more often be used be institutions (such as states or religions) and might not be materialized (it is potential/threatened/implied). E.g. what happens to a muslim woman who refuses to cover her face - the violence usually never happens because she knows it would and therefore doesn't break the rule. It is still violence used to achieve a goal though and she has the same (moral but usually not legal) right to defend herself - even if any practical defense is beyond her ability to do so because the aggressors are too numerous and dispersed.
I would argue that billions of people live in countries where violence is used against them every day because it is a threat which for example stops them from freely accessing information.
In that regard you're right that it is usually used by bad people. But it says nothing about its morality. The way I see it, violence being used by bad people is a stable equilibrium but it can be used by good people during a transition to a different stable state. It is usually not used by good people in a prolonged because materialized violence tends to reduce the number of people on both sides and cannot be sustained forever.
I don't believe that punishment can be just, and ergo I don't see a moral axis on which to judge violent actions for this purpose. I might concede the use of threatened violence as a means of control, but I don't see any pragmatic way to accomplish this without at least occasional actual punishment so it's a bit non sequiter.
It's likely our views are divergent enough that we wont come to a consensus on this, but I appreciate the nuanced discourse!
I've encountered such opinions before but never cared to engage with them since they seem utterly alien to me. Can you give me a summary of your opinions or links to some materials?
There are multiple goals to a punishment - e.g.:
- Deterrence
- Protection of others / prevention of re-offense
- Removal of aggressor from community to minimize further trauma for the victim by having to interact with him
- Restitution
- Retribution
- Vindication
- Removing any gains from the offense from the aggressor
- Further disadvantaging of the aggressor to make up for `expected_gains * probability_of_getting_caught`
- Further disadvantaging of the aggressor to put negative evolutionary pressure on such behavior
- Separation of the aggressor from others to prevent him from normalizing / spreading his behavior
These few are just off the top of my head, not all apply to all offenses, and not everyone will agree all of these are desired by their favorite society. But how do you achieve any, let along most, of them without punishment?
The problem is that it is routinely misused (especially by those who have overwhelming power), and the cases where it is really needed are really, really, really rare.
Even in cases when it appears that the use of violence is justified, the long term consequences (e.g. on culture and mentality, and hence ultimately on normal daily life) are usually such that it would have been better to avoid it in the first place.
At the moment you regularly shoot/drone the dictators, the one deciding who is dictator warranting such violence is the most scary dictator of all.
This talk about good/bad people is such naive childish ploy, are we adults here or what?
And that's why it's important to establish publicly known and accepted rules about this. Nobody suggests one person deciding this, usually people who imagine this situation have some issues of their own.
But the threat of absolutely any citizen having a decent chance of successfully killing a dictator would probably lead to democratization of power - individuals would not be attracted to having so much power they would likely become targets and we'd hopefully see more effort towards establishing more direct means of decision making.
> This talk about good/bad people is such naive childish ploy, are we adults here or what?
No need for insults, it's a simplification. It's obviously a spectrum. But broadly speaking, people who regularly intentionally harm others for their gain or pleasure (or see nothing wrong with doing it or support those who do) are considered bad. People who go out of their way to help others are good. The rest is neutral. Most people are neutral - don't see injustice or wrongdoing as their problem until it directly negatively affects them.
And obviously, there are people who do both a lot of good and a lot of bad. I consider those bad because more often than not, they only do the good things to gain support or compensate so they can get away with the bad things.
That's my personal opinion and experience. Other people could for example argue for simply summing up the good and the bad and the total would neatly categorize them. Intent also matters and that's even more complex but usually unprovable from the outside.
“If we lived in a world where dictators and their flying monkeys get regularly shot or droned to death, we wouldn't have dictators”
While I agree with the sentiment, the groups who support dictators (oligarchs, religious extremists) would decide to also use violence. So both dictators and the leaders on the side of the people would be murdered and society would be destabilized.
We need reliable anonymous communication as yet another source of friction (drink!) which the state needs to overcome to subjugate the people. And that's why so many states, even western democracies, are trying to oppose it now using children or terrorists as an excuse. The authoritarians and wannabe-dictators (most of whom will never achieve their goal or even publicly state it) are already in government positions, always have been.
There are two upsides:
- There are more normal (good or neutral) people than there are authoritarians (bad people - who want to exercise unjustified control over other people's lives). If the leadership attributes are evenly distributed, then they need to kill more of us than we need to kill of them.
- I don't think people should need to be led. It's a symptom of submissivity many have been taught since childhood ("do what I say and don't talk back") and to some extent is it probably natural but hopefully it can be reduced through better upbringing. Teach your children to question everything and to guess people's incentives and motives. What we need need is enough independent thinkers who are able to communicate and self-organize.
Using violence against someone is the ultimate authoritarian act, so for one side this is business as usual while for the other this is the epitome of hypocrisy.
Your mention of anonymity reminds me of assasination politics [0], which is an idea I found enticing in the past. However I've since come to the opinion that such a system is neither optimal nor necessary, though I believe a similar outcome may be inevitable as we continue along the arc of the democratization of power through technical proliferation.
Only in single-step moral systems (one which judges actions as moral or immoral solely based on those actions in the moment and not what preceded them).
I have a multi-step moral system. Basically any unjustified intentional harm to a person justified proportional retaliation. Unjustified means it is not harm which is being caused as punishment to a previous offense. And proportional means that it shouldn't be too weak, neither too strong. IMO the optimum is causing something like 1.5-3x more suffering/"disadvantagement". However, it is important to signal to both the original aggressor and any potential witnesses why this is being done so that one is not mistaken for an original aggressor himself.
I am also a fan of judging others by their own moral principles. Basically, if someone thinks it is OK to, for example, limit my freedom or harm me (for various reasons or in various circumstances), I apply the same rules to him and it is therefore OK for me to limit his freedom or harm him (for similar reasons or in similar circumstances).
Either system leads to similar outcomes. (The first allows stronger response to offense, the second allows only mirroring).
Thanks for the link, it looks very interesting but it goes into my to-read list for today.
Why would you want to, unless you live in a domain of indoctrination ("echo chamber") that pacifism is good and anything else is bad?
I always find it useful to ask "why", whenever someone tells me their beliefs. Children do it and adults sometimes tend to find it annoying because they realize they cannot justify their beliefs but being children, they are easy to dismiss. Harder to dismiss an honest question from an adult.
That's a good way to think about it but unfortunately, human language is so imprecise that IMO many people will leave with the conclusion that "sadly" means "using violence makes me sad and implicitly is therefore bad".
Ideally we'd live in a society where laws are a complete and consistent description of a valid (also complete and consistent) moral system. That's not the reality.
(If it's possible at all because morality operates on reality while legality operated on provability - a subset of reality which can be proven to a neutral third party.)
I suspect this kind of nuance is lost on the sort of people who think having qualms about the use of violence is the same thing as pretending to be saintly pacifists.
> normal Iranian people who just want to leave their life?
Like the ones who are protesting? Idk, when people put themselves in front of a gun I'm inclined to listen to what they're demanding, not folks in their armchairs a world away.
Hitler was so bad that anybody is willing to publicly talk about killing him, there are movies glorifying it, people talk about going back in time and killing baby Hitler. He was so bad that the very strong taboo against killing does not work on him.
So, when _exactly_ did it become OK to kill him? Think about it.
What cumulative sum of his actions between 1889 and 1945 tipped the balance?
Now, do those same rules apply to current dictators or people in the process of becoming dictators even if the taboo is still strong there?
Are you comparing Iran to Hitler?! That does not make sense whatsoever.
If you mean 'At some point, you have to step in and make the change by force. Like we did with Hitler'.
I will say: Yes, at some point it is justified to step in. But, there must be a realistic chance that you will make things better, and low chance that you will make things much, much worse. International consensus would be highly desirable, as well.
In case of Iran: How sure are you that you can make a positive change in Iran by bombing only? If you kill (directly or indirectly, e.g. starvation/ruined water supplies) much more Iranians than Iranians killed themselves (like we did with Saddam), are you really helping?
I don't think there is a will (and maybe not even a capability) for boots on the ground. So, you are just hoping that the new regime would be a better one. Not many positive historical examples there.
Last, but not least: There are serious escalation dangers. What if China/Russia provided Iran with targeting data and/or missiles (not that Iran does not have their own) and Iran hit/sunk a carrier and some destroyers? Are you now in war with China/Russia? At what moment do you cross that line? Will you retreat with the tail between you legs, like from Afghanistan? Or will Israel decide to toss a nuke or two?
The idealism of helping the poor protesters is a noble one, but the road to hell is paved by good intentions.
According to betting exchanges air strikes on Iran are quite unlikely in the very near term, but become more likely than not by this summer or the end of the year. So this doesn't seem to be a matter of near-term attention, more of a prediction that the Iranian government will not manage to shift their stance in a more favorable direction.
There's been a massive movement of air assets towards Iran over the last week or so. That doesn't necessarily mean a strike will happen but it's clearly a threat.
> With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention
Or Tel Aviv, Rihyadh, New Delhi or any other one of the hosts of Iran’s adversaries and enemies.
> the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people
I find it helpful to decompose states as monoliths in these cases. Besides attracting an intervention, the purpose of such a protest would also include motivating state elements to attempt a coup.
Riyadh (along with the rest of the Gulf) and New Delhi are quietly lobbying against some sort of American action, as could be seen with India very recently choosing to switch their UN vote on Israeli settlements from abstaining to against. And the KSA+UAE quickly signing mutual defense pacts with Pakistan+India (reduces their risk of being striked during a US-Iran War as well as forcibly prevents Pakistan and India from entering another war after Operation Sindoor).
TLV (already know) and Islamabad are lobbying the US in favor of striking the regime, as can be seen with the prominence Asim Munir, Muhammad Aamer, and Asim Malik in acting as a backchannel and unofficial advisers to the US on Iran under the Trump admin as well as Netanyahu's continued lobbying for a stronger response to Iran for decades.
> Nobody wants missiles flying over their homelands. At the same time, both goverments have been supportive of America's non-proliferation work in Iran.
Absolutely
> My broad point is there are plenty of folks who may be open to covertly supporting the protesters beyond America blowing blowing god knows what up.
Makes sense. And yes that's true!
Also, despite all the bots on this page and any other Iran page on HN (pro-protest accounts in Iran please, please, please follow OpSec best practices and remove any personal references of yourself on HN), the reality is a large portion of Iranians do want the regime to end.
They most likely do not want the Shah, but they are tired of the incumbent regime as well. And unlike during the Green Movement, Iran is much more isolated.
I thought the state’s supporters were actually very large in number and the dominant force in Iran. After all past protests, like about the woman who was disappeared and killed, were smaller and were suppressed quickly. What changed? Is it demographics - like are there larger numbers of young people who aren’t for a theocracy?
>What changed? Is it demographics - like are there larger numbers of young people who aren’t for a theocracy?
Some internal factor opaque to western media. Their economy's in the shitter, perhaps. Or the so-called water shortage. Though what it could be exactly, that western intelligence wouldn't be willing to trumpet from the mountaintops, I could not say.
> Though what it could be exactly, that western intelligence wouldn't be willing to trumpet from the mountaintops
Germany used to have great Middle Eastern intel, but they either lost it or got better about leaks. American HUMINT in the Middle East is notoriously awful, so I'd err on the side of us being as confused as everyone else.
I think intelligence like historiography is extremely bad at detecting processes as they are happening, as it cannot understand behaviors of humans that are not part of large bureaucracies it usually researches. Therefore, intelligence in general usually fails in anticipating revolutions
The theory is always easy. The role of agitators since the beginning of times was to preempt the premise of “non-violence”. They will infiltrate a protest and fire the first shots in the most visible way possible to justify a reaction in force. The controlled media will focus on those images, protesters throwing molotovs, firing guns, attacking law enforcement.
That recipe is the theory of the ideal case. If it were that simple authoritarian regimes would be a thing of the past. But those regimes have played the game longer than most protesters have been alive. That’s why these movements barely make a dent even with covert outside support.
> As support for state repression of the movement declines (because repression is not stopping the disruption) and the movement itself proves impossible to extinguish (because repression is recruiting for it), the only viable solution becomes giving the movement its demands.
Public support for the Iranian state has been around zero among the population for years now, the problem is that the Iranian government has probably 2-3 million of armed governmental agents (from police over regular military to IRGC/Basij) [1] and is just about as willing to compromise as the CCP was and is ever since Tiananmen.
In fact, I would say what we've seen from Iran the last weeks (credible sources say around 35k deaths) is even more deaths than in the 1989 China protests which had a death toll of (worst case estimated) 10k.
Against that level of fanatical, money- and religion-driven bloodlust, there is no chance of successful protests, not without serious external aid shifting the power balance. And in the case of Iran, that is the US and Israel wiping the mullahs out of this world, or causing them enough trouble so that the leadership accepts an offer to escape to Moscow alive.
Let me be clear: I despise both Trump and Netanyahu. But this is, IMHO, the one and only chance these two men have to assist a just and rightful cause for once.
> not without serious external aid shifting the power balance.
I second that non-violent protest alone is a moral high-ground stance that has little effectiveness without an external force amplifying the leverage. The assessment quoted above is strangely superficial taken at face value.
Armed Baloch and Kurdish groups have been boasting of firing on Iranian police. The police are firing back. Hard to call them non-violent when they openly boast about armed attacks. Who knows where they are getting their weapons, with western countries also openly declaring their intent to destabilize Iran.
But also weird to say that the tens of thousands of student protestors are actually violent because totally different people in a different part of the country are armed.
Two things that can both be true: the Iranian regime is fundamentalist and authoritarian and massively abusive to its people, and also western countries are continuing their long history of meddling and funding separatist and terrorist groups with the goal of regime change and establishing a client state (because that worked out so well with the Shah).
> Armed Baloch and Kurdish groups have been boasting of firing on Iranian police
“…it is important to note that while the overall framework of these two approaches is the same their tactics are totally different and indeed fundamentally incompatible in most cases. Someone doing violence in the context of a non-violent movement is actively harming their cause because they are reducing the clear contrast and uncomplicated message the movement is trying to send. Likewise, it is relatively easy to dismiss non-violent supporters of violent movements so long as their core movement remains violent, simply by pointing to the violence of the core movement. It is thus very important for individuals to understand what kind of movement they are in and not ‘cosplay’ the other kind” (Id.).
The core protest is strategically and factually a non-violent protest. It is ringed by armed insurgencies. They undermine each other.
> Who knows where they are getting their weapons, with western countries
Nobody has a monopoly on weapons supply to the Middle East. If you want to seriously interrogate this line of questioning, try to learn what weapons they’re using.
The key part is that there are multiple insurgencies going on simultaneously. There are separatist movements that are looking to create new nations states, while simultaneous there are non-violent protests ongoing, generally looking for regime change and a move away from extremists religious tendencies. Both can be true simultaneously.
Kurds are getting abandoned by the west on a weekly basis for the past like century. It's insane what these people have have gone through,still no resolution.
Wikipedia describes it as a “a short-lived Kurdish self-governing unrecognized state in present-day Iran” and “a puppet state of the Soviet Union”. Doesn’t really count as a free and independent state.
>The Kurds had their own state at the end of World War II - the US and UK forced them to dissolve and integrate with Iran.
The Kurds were also supposed to have their own state at the end of World War 1, but western countries abandoned them and didn't force Turkey to honour its obligations, leaving Turkey free to genocide them just like it did the Armenians, Assyrians and Pontic Greeks.
They effectively had their own state in Rojava up until a few weeks ago, and KRG (Iraq) is pretty damn close to a state, it's basically a state in everything but recognition as the immigration, defense, and law system is almost entirely separated. When I lived Rojava, Assad had zero influence, the military and police and borders were entirely separated, there was zero chance you were going to experience the force of law ofthe state of Syria anywhere you went. The state of Rojava dissolved due to tactical loss of alliance with Arab militias when the rebels retook Damascus. I would characterize their recent loss of state in Syria had more to do with being surrounded by Turkey and dependence on wish-wash arab allies than it had to do with the US or UK.
> with western countries also openly declaring their intent to destabilize Iran
As opposed to standing idly by when the regime 'stabilizes' the country by murdering thousands of people? It's well past the stage where non violent protest or resistance stopped being a viable option..
Dear American, kindly solve your own internal issues first and then - maybe - you can talk on how to "help" some other countries on the literal other side of the world TYM.
I'm cool with that. Let them fight their own battles...but also don't ever ask or expect the US to help.
The problem with your stance is that too many people want it both ways: They don't want the US to intervene, but then also want support in terms of money and special treatment for people emigrating from these countries (and blame the US for the deaths that occur for a terrible government).
You know, maybe it would be just enough if you do not actively work on making their life miserable (sanctions and inciting instability).
There were almost no Syrian refugees before operation Timber-Sycamore.
Thank you USA, our dear friend and freedom-sharing soulmate, for unnecessary refugee crisis in Europe (and another one from Ukraine). With friends like that, who needs enemies. Also, as the above two examples (and Biden's Inflation reduction act, and Nuland's 'f*k Europe'), it is not a Trump thing, its USA thing.
> your moral principles seem to demand an invasion and subjugation of Israel
There is absolutely no requirement for consistency in geopolitics. Advocating for a position on e.g. Gaza or Iran isn't undermined because that person isn't expending equal efforts on injustice in another theatre.
Not really. We absolutely have the option to let things play out in Iran and refuse to intervene. There are many regimes in Africa that are as bad or worse than Iran. We seem to have little interest in "regime change" there. You should think about why not.
Well it's not black and white. Sometimes doing the right thing even if you have ulterior motives is better than doing nothing.
Africa is tricky due to historical reasons, though. Any western power that would intervene there without the explicit invitation of the local government would be accused of neo-colonialism etc.
You know, doing the Syria and Libya (and Iraq and Afghanistan) thing was the 'right thing', right?
Do you really believe that after the violent regime change Iran will become the beacon of prosperity in the ME?
Yes, I believe if the things are really out of hands (like Khmer rouge in Kambodia), external intervention is warranted.
That can be done against small/weak states where the result can be achieved fast and without too much bloodshed (compared to what is already going on), and when agreed on by UN. Will most definitely need boots on the ground.
It is an entirely different matter against a 90million vast state like Iran. Note that boots on the ground is not in the cards, and most probably will never be. The approach is 'bomb and hope'. Which guarantees misery and bloodshed of Iranian blood. And if the result is fall of the ayatollah regime, and replaced by nationalists with socialistic tendencies, that would not really cooperate with USA (= sell oil rights and totally dismantle their military) then what? Bomb more? How can you honestly believe this is the best for Iranian people?
Those African regimes don't spend billions a year to promote and fund terrorism in other countries. Remember kids, you can kill millions of your own people (Stalin, Mao, etc) and nobody will care. Heck, some will even celebrate you. But don't mess with people in another country, otherwise outsiders will get involved. Iran is the main source of violence and terrorism in the most violent part of the world. Maybe, just maybe your fake moralizing isn't helping.
Iran has committed or contributed to virtually zero terrorism in America. The American people have no legitimate beef with Iran, America is just acting as Israel's rabid attack dog.
there is quite a beef going on between America and Iran if you haven't noticed, such as taking an entire embassy as hostages or killing a whole lot of US troops in Iraq and Lebanon among other things
Because those countries are not trying to become a global power, with potential nuclear weapon, ICBM and drone capabilities along with a strategic location?
And all while making "death to america" part of their national slogan.
Iran occasionally attacks Americans in the region or abroad generally, but they don't attack Americans in America despite all of their "death to America" rhetoric (which they are more than entitled to.) If you add up who's fucking with who and who's being fucked with, the imbalance between America and Iran is enormous.
Just think about would have happened if protesters in USA shot and killed 150 policemen. Protesters which foreign states (China or Russia) openly boasted they are supporting, and provided them with weapons and communication technology.
Not quite at the level, but Jan 6 is similar. 174 officers were hospitalized, protesters were coordinating over Telegram, and Russian state owned media employees actively ran influence ops to support maga, though especially after the event (not quite “openly boasted”)
The result: nothing of consequence happened because the faction they supported eventually won and was/is legitimately popular
So there are no circumstances where armed rebellion is justifiable and the only legitimate type of resistance to state violence is literally trying to drown the state forces in bodies of non-violent protestors?
At a certain point there ceases to be a middle path between violent resistance and complete surrender.
> Protesters which foreign states (China or Russia)
This type of relativism is dishonest. Of course US is speed running the path to authoritarianism but its not quite there. e.g. morally it would be perfectly acceptable to support weapons to protestors in Russia and not the other way around.
The Iranian regime is objectively evil, period. Regardless of what honest or dishonest motives foreign actors might or might not have.
Uh, sorry, no. At the moment you start arguing by 'The Iranian regime is objectively evil, period', you have totally lost the plot.
The statement 'The USA regime is objectively evil, period' is much more justifiable. Measured, e.g. by the number of people it has killed (both directly, and indirectly by sanctions and support for brutal dictators - e.g. Pinochet, but also Saddam while he was waging war with Iran).
Meddling in internal affairs of other countries has a terrible track record, the world would be so much better off without it.
Armed resistance most often leads to a damn bloody affair in which everybody is worse off, unless the state is already so rotten that it has no will to fight for itself. Supporting such resistance just means more life losses, both on the resistance and on the state side (typically, much more on the resistance side). Hence, the true aim is not to help the resistance, but to weaken the state. No consideration for the life of the local people, the show (the grand game) must go on!
> Meddling in internal affairs of other countries has a terrible track record, the world would be so much better off without it
Wishing away "meddling" is on par with wishing away war. Nice in theory. Practically impossible in practice. (Sovereignty has a Schrödinger's element to it. You really only know you have it when you test its boundaries. And the only test of sovereignty is against another sovereign. The world is littered with sovereigns meddling in each others' affairs and those who aren't sovereign.)
The US is evil because it meddles in the affairs of other countries? Uh huh. Tell me about Iran.
The US is evil because of who it supports? Tell me about Iran.
And at least the US didn't murder thousands of anti-government demonstrators so far this year.
You're right in this: The US is not the shining example of goodness and purity that we wish it to be. But when you condemn the US compared to Iran, using those metrics, it looks suspiciously like motivated reasoning.
Economic collapse, failed infrastructure, lack of human rights, ruthless religious dictatorship? All while spending 25% of their budget on military ventures.
US intelligence assessments on the question of whether Iran is building one keep publicly coming out as negative. People who keep repeating that Iran is building one are people who want to see Iran torn apart. Had Iran ACTUALLY been working on one all these decades, we wouldn't be at war with them now because they would have the ultimate deterrence and we'd be too scared. The very fact that we are bombing them every now and then, and are about to launch another massive regime change war campaign against them, is the best confirmation that they are in fact NOT close to having nuclear-armed missiles. Otherwise it would be too risky to start bombing a country that is going to have them in a week, and that is going to also then be VERY pissed that you just bombed the shit out of them, and will want to show you once and for all never to mess with it again. Iran's government is actually REALLY stupid for not having got nuclear weapons already, and they may be about to pay for that mistake with their country's devastation.
Sanctions-wise... When you sanction a society to the degree that Iran has been sanctioned, you force that society to turn to smuggling, black markets, and forces operating outside of usual law and norms, in order for the society to prevent its collapse. That naturally causes corruption to spread because you are involving outlaws in fundamental processes of your economy. This is one of intended consequences of such harsh sanctions, in order to maximize the negative sentiment of the general populace of the targeted country towards their government. It impoverishes the country and makes the populace more likely to accept when approached by foreign agents offering monetary rewards for help in bringing the government down.
Obviously the commenter I responded to is not arguing in good faith so I don't expect anything but an NPC talking point response, so I wish to note that my answer is for a curious passerby.
Pakistan did it secretly. Today I doubt that Pakistan would have been allowed to have nukes. Moreover, just because they have nukes it is huge pain in the ass and that why the US and other countries support Pakistan financially — no one wants collapsing state with nuclear weapons.
If Iran gets nuclear weapons, all big Sunni countries will get them too: Saudis, Qatar, etc. we do not want it to happen, as the next Arab spring can collapse those governments, and you can count on any Muslim radical group getting hands on one of those.
Anyway, there are countries that have nuclear weapons, and this Jinny is out of the bottle. But, it doesn’t mean we want to have more of this crap lying around. We need less.
I think it has more to do with nukes than oil. North Korea is a good example that once you have nukes, no one can touch you. No one wants more nukes, especially in the hands of IR, in this world.
My principals is that a government should do what's good for the people of their country.
Are your principals that a government should only focus on self preservation?
What would be better for the people of Iran, sinking an American aircraft carrier or just disbanding their nuclear and long range ballistic missile programs?
The US and Iran are very different countries. You can't just fix one variable to be the same in a hypothetical and expect us to nod along as if this reveals any insight. It's a shitty rhetorical tactic.
The Baloch movement is orthogonal to the students movement.
Jaish al-Adl would continue bombing Iranian police stations regardless of who's in power in Tehran as long as India maintains operational control of Chabahar Port, Chabahar-Zahedan Railway, and INSTC.
Similarly, the BLA and BNA would continue bombing Pakistani police stations regardless of who's in power in Islamabad/Pindi as long as China maintains operational control of Gwadar Port, the Western Alignment expressway, and CPEC.
Iran is de facto non-existent in much of Sistan-ve-Balochistan. Heck, Urdu/Hindi fluency remains the norm in much of Iranian Balochistan as a large portion of Iranian Baloch continue to have family ties across the border in Pakistan, work with their brethren in the Gulf as migrant workers, or travel to Karachi, Quetta, or India for medical, religious (most Iranian Baloch are Deobandi), and education services.
Heck, one of our old neighbors growing up was a Iranian Baloch-Pakistani Baloch couple and according to them Baloch marriage across the border was extremely common. And Uzair Baloch had ties to both Iranian and Indian intelligence [0].
The Iran-Pakistan and the Iran-Afghanistan border is very porous because of how isolated Sistan-ve-Balochistan and much of Khorasan is from the rest of Iran.
Haha yep, that documentary was wild - very old school Vice before they all got poached.
But anyhow, the entire thing has become a quagmire after CPEC was announced in 2015, because that forced India to confront the very real possibility of being enricled by China during a war.
This is what lead to India's quiet and now overt diplomacy with the Taliban, continued investment in Iran despite the sanctions, and building Saudi and UAE cofinanced megaprojects on the Indo-Pak border in GJ and RJ as well as in JK.
I don't think it's as simple as the Kurds starting the violence, though, except in KRG where they now have autonomous territory that's mostly left alone, the other 3 nations Kurds lived in have lived with systemic violence against them (sometimes to the extent of banning their languages, sometimes more like genocide). Like most of the ME engagements, untangling who is firing back at who ranges from difficult to impossible to untangle depending on what situation you are looking at.
> Who knows where they are getting their weapons, with western countries also openly declaring their intent to destabilize Iran.
When I fought in the YPG (Kurdish militia in Syria), almost all the weapons were Russian / USSR block type weapons, though the AK were stamped with the symbol of many soviet block countries.
I cant imagine the courage that is needed to take part in these protests. Most here, the most revolutionary act they will ever participate on in their life, is criticizing their boss choice of Azure as cloud provider...
I couldn’t do it. Much respect for them. In the 80s when Korea was under quasi military regime, there were many street protests. Molotov cocktails and tear gas being exchanged. Some killed, many beaten down by riot police. Most were led by students.
Yep. I think in America most would be scared of what ICE and DHS would do to them. Hard to imagine facing off an authoritarian militaristic government.
Is it courage or desperation? There obviously is no liberal democratic utopia waiting for them on the other side. Iran will be turned into another Libya, Syria, or Gaza, like the rest of Israel's adversaries. Enormous human suffering so that a fake biblical prophecy can be fulfilled.
Any subsequent government isn't likely to be a friend of Israel, either. They might decide to stop actively funding attacks and put the money to better use, but I wouldn't be so sure of that. It's the basis of a lot of ally relationships that they will want to maintain.
Iran had good relations with Israel prior to 1979 and never persecuted or expelled its Jews after 1948 unlike every other country in the region. In fact there’s a great degree of very old cultural affinity between Persians and Jews. A secular Iran is likely to have very close ties with Israel if for no other reason than as a backlash to the excesses of the cleracy.
Why? a non-religious Iran would have difficulty maintaining alliances with islamist organizations such as PMF and Hezbollah that were used to slaughter Iranian protestors. Also, like Syria it would probably pivot to a US-led alliance
Are Iranians supposed to believe that after Israel destroyed every hospital and university in Gaza? Insulting. The IRGC is under every brick and pebble.
Generally the IRGC has everything to do with the current state of Gaza, as it was involved in planning and training for the October 7th attack.
This was a masterstroke of Iranian strategy, while it initially looked they have yet again encouraged the Palestinians to commit national suicide on their behalf, in two years it looks like this is going to end with a national suicide of the Islamic Republic
What does Gaza has to do with what Iranians believe?
In war, when civilian infrastructure is used for military purposes, it will get destroyed. Look at all the cities in Ukraine where combat did happen, like Bahmut, or Mariupol. They got absolutely decimated.
Any country on earth engaging in ground combat would do exactly the same tactics as Israel did, and we have plenty of evidence of that from the past 20 years.
I have an ex-colleague from Tehran and he told me that people actually throw parties whenever Israel bombs Iran or assassinates one of the IRGC leaders, because they consider Bibi the only person in the world who is actually standing up to the regime. Make of that what you will.
I applaud their bravery in remaining non violent, but I'm not sure that is the best strategy as the state showed their willingness to just kill everyone.
Would organising an armed resistance be more effective? The state dissappears people. Have them organise and dissappear the leaders of the revolutionary guard or at the very least help another state (like Israel) to target them.
Non violence works only in democracies and other systems where the rulers care about what people think.
Protest of any kind only works in systems where the rulers aren’t insulated from the sentiment of their populace by a steady stream of natural resources money.
Nonviolence works where the rulers have a conscience (or at least where those who carry out the rulers' will do).
Would armed resistance be more effective? How many guns can they get their hands on? I don't know the answer to that, but my expectation is, not many. (I am open to correction.)
I mean, with dictators, that's usually what it comes down to. But it often takes years or decades of unrest and repression before someone with enough guns decides they want to be on the right side of history.
It's a fascinating if morbid process we go through every now and then... sort of, building consensus by sacrificing livelihoods and lives.
Iran is one of the most oppressive regimes remaining on this planet, so I really hope this does it. The problem is that revolutionary governments are usually not dumb and do their best to make sure that another revolution can't overthrow them too easily - hardline loyalists with benefits in the military, etc. So this probably ends with a military intervention by other countries or some other sequence of events that will spell even more misery.
The whole history of the Iranian revolution is pretty wacky. It's easy to take a knee-jerk position that "the West did it", and we definitely set some pieces in motion, but Iran wasn't really hurting prior to the revolution, which is why it caught everyone by surprise. The shah made a number of political missteps, there was some sentiment against the UK and the US, and people wanted change... but almost no one wanted a theocratic dictatorship instead. And yet...
The irony of this submission’s proximity to another titled “Attention Media ≠ Social Networks” cannot escape me.
Balance cannot be restored until a whimsy Show HN appears Monday afternoon followed by an LLM EDC by a high profile FOSS developer the following day and then rounded out by a “cozy web elegy” come Hump Day.
"Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic."
Sorry about the whataboutery but it's "funny" how chaos in non Western-allied countries gets so much coverage, even when it doesn't affect us, but shit like the people of France's New Caledonia trying to get independence doesn't:
I didn't even know about that, just that it was a beautiful place and looked it up one day to fantasize about a potential future vacation, and saw that news.
So Iran may have nukes and is beating up its own people.. If the coverage keeps ramping up, the news cycle echoes of Iraq and Libya all over again. Maybe Trump's planning to make it a trilogy
You mean France's New Caledonia who already had three! referendums, and three times voted to remain part of France and has a new one planned for 2026? That one?
I'm talking about the news coverage. We hear more about the riots and shit in "them" countries than the riots and police killing civilians in Western countries.
Saying that the actions of the Iranian regime doesn’t affect western nations is like being in a burning building, saying that the fire in the floors below doesn’t affect you.
The country that’s a pillar of the Russo-Chinese axis, which controls vast amounts of oil, which can cripple a shipping channel that moves 20% of the worlds natural gas, which supplies high end drones to Russia and North Korean, which funds terrorist faction across the entire Middle East (that closed the Red Sea shipping lane), which operates terrorist cells in Europe.
Iran is the major cause of political instability in the the ME. They are the primary funders for the 3 most active terrorist groups in the ME if not the world. Every single westerner pays more for things because of the instability Iran funds.
They are the only supporters of majority Shiite populations who live under western-supported Sunni and Wahabi dictators. They are a Shiite theocracy surrounded by hostile Western-supported Sunni theocracies.
> Every single westerner pays more for things because of the instability Iran funds.
This is simply a lie. Every single Westerner pays vastly more for things because they spend trillions propping up illegitimate middle eastern dictators in order to keep their natural resources cheap and accessible for sleazy western middlemen to mark up.
You know Venezuela, Iran, Kuba. I wonder what all these countries that western Media tells us have "oppressive regimes" have in common.
Funny how they all have spoken out against the genocide in Gaza. One would think that would be the link on why they are targeted. Maybe the problem is not humanitarian but that they are opposing US imperialism?
Just like all the times before. You know when Iraq was preparing weapons of mass destruction. When Libya needed to be bombed for the good of its people so that Islamist warmongers could destroy the country. When the US brought the Taliban into power to fight the Soviets and then invaded Afghanistan to get rid of the Taliban again. And then left and now the Taliban are fine again.
What is funny to me is that as long as some group is anti-west, they can commit any atrocity, and get a blank check for it. Like, they had to do it, there was not other choice. Completely stripped of any agency not to commit atrocities.
So the worst you could find is a story from 2007 where Hamas killed five collaborators?
Not to mention that it was in the context of a coup attempt against democratically elected Hamas.
Fatah decided to betray its own people. In the West Bank it is helping Israel to oppress their own people and actively fights against Palestinian resistance.
Hamas works perfectly well together with all Palestinian resistance groups from Islamic Jihad to secular ones like the PFLP.
> Fatah decided to betray its own people. In the West Bank it is helping Israel to oppress their own people and actively fights against Palestinian resistance.
The Palestinian Authority is Fatah and yes they are forced by Israel to suppress dissent.
As for Hamas
> Human Rights Watch met with the Palestinian Authority Intelligence Services in Ramallah, but was unable to accept an offer from Hamas authorities to meet in Gaza because Israel refused to grant permits for senior Human Rights Watch officials to enter the Gaza Strip for this purpose. Israeli authorities also rejected Human Rights Watch’s request for senior representatives to enter Gaza during October 2018 to present this report at a news conference.
This discussion started with you saying how bad Hamas was for executing Fatah collaborators in 2007 so not sure what point you are making other than agreeing with Hamas.
> How Israelis refusal to admit these officials to meet Hamas’s leadership makes the crimes committed by Hamas not true?
Inviting Humans Rights Watch does not seem like the behavior of an organization that has crimes to hide. Considering it was not possible to enter Gaza, the fact finding was limited and so it is not conclusive.
Also Humans Rights Watch had to criticize "both sides" because of political pressure. It is a move to seem impartial.
Hamas does not oppress its people. It couldn't survive a day without the support of its people. It kills collaborators as any resistance movement needs to do. Nothing wrong with that.
Hopefully the Iranian government doesn't take a page out of the US Epstein regime playbook and start trampling on students free speech for daring to speak against their mass Holocaust and baby bloodletting in Gaza and shooting protestors dead on the streets.
I've been hearing concerning reports that the Iranian Government in a matter of a few days "slaughtered 4 Quadrillion Cattle" according to Mossad Internal Reports. If Iran managed that in a few days imagine how many cattle children The Worldwide Epstein Regime ritually sacrificed to Satan in Gaza almost 3 years? Much to consider!
It's a very funny meme when the The Worldwide Epstein Regime sends it's Satan's Chosen Einsatzgruppen to sacrifice tens of thousands of children in Gaza? Just because you consider those children as subhuman cattle? Please clarify your position on the Holocaust of Children in Gaza.
The entity that is choosing to sacrifice children in Gaza is Hamas.
When you send kids as scouts to spy on enemy forces you assume they’re gonna get hurt.
When you set up military commands inside schools and hospitals you choose to sacrifice your population.
please clarify your position on using civilians as sacrificial cannon fodder in war.
A reminder that American economic sanctions are a primary cause of the situation that causes protests against the Iranian government. Our government is attempting to destroy Iran, an independent nation that is not our enemy.
When will American students stage a large scale anti-government protest against the regime? Oh right, the billionaires and zionist lobby cracked down on the encampments with the (violent) help of police and by firing three Ivy League Presidents to coerce the entire educational system to abandon whatever liberal principles remained.
They hate the government that is trying to destroy their entire society. Stop attacking a country half-way around the world, they will stop even thinking about us.
> They hate the government that is trying to destroy their entire society.
Given Irans track record wrt women rights, and inability of Iranians to accept violence toward their women, IR doesn’t need the US or anyone else to destroy their society.
> Stop attacking a country half-way around the world, they will stop even thinking about us.
Why would they? IR is ruled by radical Muslims who believe in spreading the rule of Islamic Revolution. Why should we not believe them?
Now apply this argument to Saudi Arabia and ask yourself why Iran is on the receiving end of this propaganda and not the former. America gives zero fucks about the oppressed minorities of this world, in fact, it is to blame for a lot of this oppression. War and starvation never improved any society.
Any society will collapse if deprived of essential goods by an external force. Cultural practices that we disagree with can be remediated through peaceful means or at least settled by Iranians. It's not like women aren't capable of resistance or their own political voice. We can support change in Iranian society without calling for the destruction of their government by any means necessary. I presume you also wish to invade U.S. ally Saudi Arabia.
> Why would they? IR is ruled by radical Muslims who believe in spreading the rule of Islamic Revolution. Why should we not believe them?
I also presume you also spend all day thinking about how you wish to destroy random African countries you barely know the name of. You believe in spreading "democracy" like a French revolutionary from the early 1800s.
> Any society will collapse if deprived of essential goods by an external force.
IR is not deprived of essential goods. They are trading with all the neighbors and many international partners.
> Cultural practices that we disagree with can be remediated through peaceful means or at least settled by Iranians. It's not like women aren't capable of resistance or their own political voice.
Do you mean cultural practice of beating women to death for refusal to wear hijab? What is exactly the voice these women have?
> I presume you also wish to invade U.S. ally Saudi Arabia.
No, I am not. FWIW saudis seem to be totally fine with their ruling family. Iranians, on the other hand, are not. There is a huge difference between what we see in Iran, and what we see in SA. Moreover, saudis do no chant “death to america”, do not believe in the spread of Islamic revolution, and are not working on nuclear weapons.
> I also presume you also spend all day thinking about how you wish to destroy random African countries you barely know the name of.
Can you explain to me how did you get from me pointing out that IR is a regime governed by the idea of spreading Islamic revolution and random African countries?
> You believe in spreading "democracy" like a French revolutionary from the early 1800s.
lol no. You can’t spread democracy if locals don’t believe in democracy. Iranians believe in democracy, and they do have a chance once the regime is gone, or, at least they give up their nukes, and stop enrichment.
If Iran has nukes, Saudis and others in the region would want nukes. I think we need to have fewer nukes in the world and not more.
Liberal doesn't mean Democrat. And those Ivies largely purged anyone who was actually Liberal years ago. But sure, keep blaming the Jews, it doesn't at all make you look conspiratorial. I will never understand why extremist groups all have that in common.
I'm Jewish and anti-zionist. I meant liberalism as in the commitment to enlightenment principles. At one point, the Republican party also shared that base commitment even if it wanted the 1890s version of that.
Many are protesting because of the sanctions, considered war crimes, imposed by the west onto them.
The US and its allies have attacked the currency and the availability of goods for the common Iranian. This is how regime change works. This is what is happening in Cuba as well. You starve and disenfranchise the average person to make regime change by internal bad-actors more successful.
Therefore many citizens protest against their conditions, not against their government. The misconstruing of this reality is intentional and an essential part of war mongering.
We understand this and we are smarter than the BBC thinks we are. Now ask yourself why must young Americans in the armed forces put their lives on the line for this?
While the sanctions may have triggered the current round of protests, what about the previous rounds? [1]
Why are you ignoring those?
Many Iranians hate their regime because it’s an oppressive theocratic one.
Just as an example of why Iranians would hate their regime, the mismanagement and corruption in the area of water management has led to severe water shortages in Tehran and other areas [2].
I think it's right and honest to admit that this is one of the methods that sanctions are supposed to work. But it's also not the only method - and framing the intent as inducing "regime change by internal bad-actors" is also a very slanted way to articulate intent, as well as what is happening on the ground.
On the other hand, without being on the ground, we cannot really say what the real balance of grievances are.
"Sanctions" are just a sanitized way of saying "forced starvation" and "denying basic medical care" because that's what happens. For Cuba, this has been going on so long that the CIA documents about the effect of sanctions and a blockade itself has been declassified (in 2005) [1]. When faced with a UN report that estimated 500,000 children had been killed by US sanctions in 1996, then UN Ambassador and later US Secretary of State Madeline Albright famously said "the price was worth it" [2].
And sanctions don't actually work. Not against enemies anyway. Just like Cuba has endured 60+ years of sanctions and Russia has endured Ukraine-related sanctions, enemies have or build an economy to be resilient to the sanctions to the point that the regime survives, even thrives in the face of perceived exteranl threats.
Probably the only successful use of sanctions was South Africa. Why? Because apartheid South Africa was an ally so the BDS movement crippled the economy.
And most of the time sanctions have no other reason than the affected country dared to not be exploited by the West and Western companies.
Funny that this is downvoted. I guess its not fitting the mainstream 'feel good about ourselved, bad, bad, Iran' narrative. Just have a look at Besson's Davos interview.
You only think that because your political partisanship overwhelms your geopolitical knowledge. But sure, a country that is the primary funder of terrorism in the ME is doing nothing wrong.
They didn't, for instance, mess up the building of water infrastructure which is causing the taps to run dry in their capitol. Oh wait, they did. But since that has nothing to do with sanctions, you didn't hear about it because it doesn't fit a specific political narrative.
Also, apparently everyone in the world has the right to trade with the west, even if they are doing everything in their power to destroy the west.
You really can't trust any western news about Iran. For whatever reason, western powers want to start a war with Iran so badly and the media is always ready to help start a war.
If Iran bent the knee to the State Dept like Saudi etc we wouldn’t give a shit who they cracked down on. When they don’t play ball with our policy goals we’re super duper interested in how free they are. Nevermind that pesky 2014 Princeton study that proves our democracy to be a sham.
I see the war propaganda slop is in full swing. Does anyone buy this nonsense anymore?
It is going to be quite interesting when the midterms put the Democrats into power. I don't expect it to change anything, because the whole system is just a fake democratic ruse, a facade, but it will surely introduce even more volatility when the blue team starts also realizing that it's just lies and the agenda of the parasitic Epstein Class continues unabated regardless of "our democracy".
I'm sure they're both helping a best they can, but they are not ginning up opposition from whole cloth. Iranians have a very long list of grievances against a brutal regime.
Israel wants Iran destroyed so badly, interesting it suddenly loves Iranians now after it bombed them indiscriminately killing many civilians just last year.
HN'ers hopefully arent stupid to fall for obvious propaganda?
The ones killing Iranians indiscriminately are the Iranian police.
Let's see your sources about Israel killing all these Iranians in the last conflict. Israel was too busy hunting ICBMs and had no interest in killing Iranians on the street.
We have no policy or pattern of boosting or downweighting protests in any particular country, and neither of us are from the U.S. I think this one was only on the front page for a few hours over night when we were both asleep and had already been downweighted by the flamewar detector by the time we were online in the morning. Most protests in any country are probably off topic on HN due to being related to mainstream news.
99% of the moderation at HN is just the accumulated actions of your fellow readers who upvote, downvote, flag and vouch for stories and comments. If you don't like their choices or their politics, maybe try Bluesky?
> So the mods at HN allow us too read about other countries protests, but not in the U.S.? I guess if all those illegal immigrants had oil, it'd be okay?
> Despite how dark and sinister you've made everything sound, you've mostly just rephrased what I wrote, with a lot of pejoratives. In that sense, you're right—there isn't much disagreement here. You just think we're wrong and bad to run HN the way we do, and that's fine.
There’s nothing wrong with someone not liking how HN is run. It’s just weird to complain about it, on HN no less, when there so many other sites already run by people who share your politics, sites where you would feel welcome and you wouldn’t have to invent scary stories about the ulterior motives of moderators.
HN’s attempt to focus makes it special, unique and valuable. Turning it into a general political free for fall like every other site would destroy that.
95% of the moderation at HN is just the accumulated actions of your fellow readers who upvote, downvote, flag and vouch for stories and comments. If you don't like their choices or their politics, maybe try Bluesky?
“To simplify greatly, the strategy of non-violence aims first to cause disruption (non-violently) in order both to draw attention but also in order to bait state overreaction. The state’s overreaction then becomes the ‘spectacular attack’ which broadcasts the movement’s message, while the group’s willingness to endure that overreaction without violence not only avoids alienating supporters, it heightens the contrast between the unjust state and the just movement.
That reaction maintains support for the movement, but at the same time disruption does not stop: the movements growing popularity enable new recruits to replace those arrested (just as with insurgent recruitment) rendering the state incapable of restoring order. The state’s supporters may grow to sympathize with the movement, but at the very least they grow impatient with the disruption, which as you will recall refuses to stop.
As support for state repression of the movement declines (because repression is not stopping the disruption) and the movement itself proves impossible to extinguish (because repression is recruiting for it), the only viable solution becomes giving the movement its demands.”
https://acoup.blog/2026/02/13/collections-against-the-state-...
The book Brett uses as his main source, Waging A Good War, is an incredible book that I strongly recommend. It treats the Civil Rights movement as a military campaign and analyzes it from the perspective of a military historian.
Not in the sense that it was viewed as a war by the protestors, but in the sense that the logistics, training, and operations of the Civil Rights movement were a well oiled machine that looked like a well organized, but nonviolent, army (including counterexamples where there was no organization).
One of the most memorable details is how James Lawson trained in nonviolence under Ghandi and came over to train protestors in nonviolent tactics. They gathered in church basements to scream insults and spit on each other to prepare for the restaurant sitins and other ops.
> the only viable solution becomes giving the movement its demands.
This interpretation reeks of Western naivete. Students were not merely arrested — they were gunned down en masse in the streets and even in hospitals. They were provoked by the U.S. president, who promised support to take on the institutions, but that support never materialized. The likely endgame of this current gunboat diplomacy is similar to Venezuela: the U.S. secures resource access while leaving the existing system intact, and the student protesters are hunted down. In other words, nothing changes for the people demanding reform.
”This interpretation reeks of Western naivete.”
The essay you are responding to was written by a historian.
The ideas actually described in the essay were not developed by a Western person. They were first implemented successfully by a non-Western person.
Mahatma Gandhi.
And Gandhi developed these ideas from reading the writings of another non-Western person. Leo Tolstoy.
More information can be found here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Letter_to_a_Hindu
As you can see in this article the non-Western Tolstoy was influenced by many non-Western religious and philosophical figures. Tolstoy then influenced the non-Western Mahatma Gandhi to successfully implement these ideas.
I'm sure European aristocrat Leo Tolstoy would be astonished to find himself lumped in with an Indian as being non-western.
Tolstoy was Russian. Russia is not a Western country. And Tolstoy was influenced by non-Western philosophical and religious figures.
While Russia is not quite a western country, the European upper classes around St. Petersburg and Moscow were no less "western" in philosophy and thought than people from nearby Latvia, Ukraine or Finland.
Tolstoy delighted in Schopenhauer, a western philosopher who he based much of his later ideas on. And yes, Tolstoy was later influenced by eastern thought, and was famously a Sinophile, but that is, again, a western tendency common among upper class europeans of the period (along with Japonisme).
Furthermore, "War and Peace" is often called one of the greatest works of "western literature". It's even included in Encyclopedia Brittanica's "Great Books of the Western World".
Just because the Russian Empire wasn't universally western doesn't mean large groups of people within were not. My own great grandparents came to America from St. Petersburg and considered themselves western.
That’s very interesting! Thank you for the thoughtful reply.
> Russia is not a Western country.
Russian culture, as it is practiced in the country's power centers, both historically and today is absolutely Western.
It may not be liberal western culture, but guess what, there's no shortage of Western countries that have been, or are, quite illiberal.
For a simple example, MAGA is western culture. United Russia isn't at all different from it, it just has a different coat of paint and supreme leader.
The only thing that can make Russia "western" is if you equate white and western.
MAGA is western, because it is American. Russia is not western, because it is neither europe nor america. And they themselves consider themselves east. And did for over a hundred years.
If you have traveled a bit around the world, and first hand experienced different cultures, you will recognize that Russia of Moscow/Petersburg and other big cities is much closer to 'west' than to 'east' of China/India/Japan/Mongolia/Indonesia.
Maybe not western enough for you, it does have a distinct flavour (but then Sicilia is also distinctly different from Sweden), but still much closer to Europe than to Asia proper.
> The only thing that can make Russia "western" is if you equate white and western.
The thing that makes it western is similarity of culture, philosophy, religion, social structure, historic exchange and cross-pollination. [0] All of which exist well within the range set by countries that you would have no qualms of calling western.
It is very similar to the rest of Europe on all those axes, in a way that Indian, East Asian, Middle Eastern, Native American, African[1], Polynesian culture, philosophy, and structures are not.
Yes, there are some peculiarities about it that the anglosphere finds alien. The same can be said for any distinct culture within the western sphere.
---
[0] Keep in mind that when I am speaking of Russia, my claims cannot be generalized among all of the ~100 ethnic and cultural groups that compose it. Just of the ones that make up the country's political center.
[1] I am speaking from a position of incredible ignorance when I just roll up an entire continent into 'African'. It's quite likely that people who know their ass from their elbow would be able to tell me why I'm wrong to do so.
…against a western government.
Gandhi also suggested, “But the Jews should have offered themselves to the butcher’s knife.”
> Mahatma Gandhi.
I daresay the Brits were not as willing to gun down peaceful protesters as today's regimes are.
You should look up the Jallianwala Bagh massacre.
(Full disclosure - I had to look up the name after remembering it portrayed in the movie Gandhi)
You are responding to a short quote from the article. This quote works with some assumtions, which are also discussed in the article. It is not naivete, the article is an interpretation of facts, including those when non-violent protests didn't work. We can disagree with the interpretation, but even if I know a way to do it, we just can't do it dealing with this small quote taken out of the context.
> interpretation reeks of Western naivete
The author is "an ancient and military historian who currently teaches as a Teaching Assistant Professor at North Carolina State University" [1].
> Students were not merely arrested — they were gunned down en masse in the streets and even in hospitals
Non-violent doesn't mean peaceful.
People died in our Civil Rights protests. People died in the Indian independence and the Phillipines' People Power Revolution. Each of their leaders were gunned down, and the last won in an autocracy. (Even if you only read the blurb, the state's violent overreaction is part of the parcel.)
> They were provoked by the U.S.
Lots of Americans think the world revolves around us. The truth is we have less influence than we think. We didn't provoke these protests, though we did give them false hope.
> the U.S. secures resource access while leaving the existing system intact, and the student protesters are hunted down
Which opposition figure is being hunted down in Venezuela under Rodriguez?
[1] https://acoup.blog/about-the-pedant/
This article is on my to-read list and I am a great fan of Mr. Devereaux's work. But I also feel like promoting non-violence outside the context of western democracies is misleading and potentially dangerous. Maybe he addresses it somewhere in the article but I have yet to read it so forgive me if he does.
But how does he explain the failure of peaceful revolutions in Belarus or China?
My understanding of social dynamics is that being peaceful only works as long as it gains you more supporters than you lose by government action against the movement. Some governments give in but if not, at some point, the scale tips and violence or surrender are your only options.
In Belarus, I knew they were fucked as soon as I heard that police support the protests by putting down their guns and joining the protesters.
They gave up their ability to use violence and therefore became as irrelevant as the other protesters. They should have kept their guns. They should have tried to use their openly armed protest to incite other armed people to also join. At some point, the potential violence would materialize but hopefully at that point, enough of the armed people would be on the side of the protest.
Maybe the dictator would give up if he saw the situation spiraling out of control (and hopefully be executed as punishment anyway).
Maybe the dictator would try to flee and get caught and executed ("gunned down"). Maybe his bunker would get overrun.
Maybe someone close to him would try to get favor from the protesters and kill him.
But all of those potential outcomes were closed off if people opposing him didn't have enough guns.
> feel like promoting non-violence outside the context of western democracies is misleading and potentially dangerous
The article discusses "efforts, in a sense, directed against the state itself, both violent approaches (what we might call ‘terroristic insurgency’) and non-violent approaches (protest)" (Id.).
> Maybe he addresses it somewhere in the article but I have yet to read it
"The ‘center of gravity’ – the locus of the most important strategic objective – for most insurgencies thus often becomes the political support that sustains a government, be that a body of key supporters in non-democratic regimes or the voters in democratic ones. That body of key voters or supporters, of course, is often not even located in the theater of operations at all: the Taliban ultimately won their insurgency in Afghanistan because they persuaded American voters that the war was no longer worth the cost, leading to the election of leaders promising to pull the plug on the war" (Id.).
> how does he explain the failure of peaceful revolutions in Belarus or China?
"All that said, there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest. This isn’t really the place to talk about the broader concept of ‘coup proofing’ and how authoritarian regimes secure internal security, repression and legitimacy in detail. But a certain kind of regime operates effectively as a society-within-a-society, with an armed subset of the population as insiders who receive benefits in status and wealth from the regime in return for their willingness to do violence to maintain it. Such regimes are generally all too willing to gun down thousands or tens of thousands of protestors to maintain power.
The late Assad regime in Syria stands as a clear example of this, as evidently does the current regime in Iran. Such regimes are not immune to an ‘attack on will,’ but they have substantially insulated themselves from it and resistance to these regimes, if it continues, often metastasizes into insurgency or protracted war (as with the above example of Syria) because the pressure has nowhere else to go" (Id.).
Thanks, looking forward to reading the full article myself.
Hopefully there's more about how these regimes have failed in the past and how to make them fail in the future. Because AFAICT at that point, violence is the only possibility apart from waiting for the dictator to die from natural causes and the system to disassemble itself as potential successors fight each other.
His is a very idealistic take which weirdly omits that every major example of non-violent protest working to topple a regime involved some foreign super power spending trillions of dollars to wage very much violent wars for the purpose. The insight that he's missing in so many words is that you need to crack the door open just enough for a foreign (super)power to want to come barging in for some reason. Non-violent protests might work as good optics for this, but good optics don't launch rockets on the enemy.
> there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest.
This sounds like a cop-out to the original blanket statement, or at least this is how I interpret it from your earlier quote. Regimes copy methodologies from others wherever possible and learn from failure to coup-proof themselves faster than the population can keep up. This is why most authoritarian regimes have endured for so long despite many being otherwise failed states, and almost always need some sort of external covert or military intervention to tip the scales.
It's like saying that you can hit the target every time by just meditating. And having a professional take the shot for you.
> insight that he's missing in so many words is that you need to crack the door open just enough for a foreign (super)power to want to come barging in for some reason
No foreign superpower barged into the Civil Rights or the Indian independence movement. Not directly. (If we’re counting hypothetical foreign involvement that’s a geopolitical constant.)
> sounds like a cop-out to the original blanket statement
And no excerpt from an article will do a full reading justice. The article makes no blanket statements, its entire thesis is armed insurgency and protest are strategic twins.
> learn from failure to coup-proof themselves faster than the population can keep up
Institutional memory is longer than individual memory. What drove this point home for me was an article about how the police on London can predict whether a protest will turn violent and that they know how to corral people depending on which outcome they want.
But for now, institutions still at least rely on individuals to retain the experience/memories/skills and individuals have their own agency and can leave the organization or die.
Do you recall the article? Was it this https://netpol.org/2025/03/01/this-is-repression-annual-stat...?
Unfortunately I don't. Your link doesn't load for me but I think I read it earlier than 2025 and possibly even 2024.
> But how does he explain the failure of peaceful revolutions in Belarus or China?
Does that need special explanation? Violent revolutions fail too ... revolution does not guarantee a success.
You mean how Russia shipped in Wagner thugs to protect Lukashenko in Belarus ?
>> They were provoked by the U.S. president, who promised support to take on the institutions, but that support never materialized
> Lots of Americans think the world revolves around us. The truth is we have less influence than we think. We didn't provoke these protests, though we did give them false hope.
Sorry, but you're just wrong in this case. The US president absolutely had a huge impact here. Meaning it wasn't just "hope": if he hadn't said and done what he did, the protests and deaths absolutely would not have occurred at the same scale. I'll post an article for reference, but you will find more on this if you look.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/18/why-protesters...
> if he hadn't said and done what he did, the protests and deaths absolutely would not have occurred at the same scale
The Guardian interviewing a handful of people, one of whom is a random protester in Iran, doesn’t establish this absolutely in any serious framework. The fact that the protests have recurred should give pause to your hypothesis.
> The fact that the protests have recurred should give pause to your hypothesis.
First, the fact that they have recurred while the US has been building up military forces there should give you pause on your hypothesis.
Second, just because a fire grows and shrinks after being started, that doesn't mean there was no initial fuel.
Third, nobody said they wouldn't have recurred. The sentence was "they wouldn't have occurred at the same scale."
Finally, I replied to your other comment to avoid duplicating the discussion, and this is going to be my last comment on the matter: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47117884
Even setting aside my disagreements with the current President, the US has an atrocious track record when it comes to following through with support. Why on earth would they believe him?
They didn't. It's called a Schelling point to solve the coordination problem. You don't get the luxury of picking and choosing your Schelling points a la carte. They come rarely and when they come you have to act or the window passes.
> Why on earth would they believe him?
One, we have no evidence they did. The claim that kids put themselves in front of guns forty days ago and again today because of Trump's tweets is extraordinary.
Two, if they did, it's because they're desperate. I can't imagine Iranians actually want the shah back. But they know rallying around the shah's image pisses off the regime. In that way, it's actually smart to wave his flag around if it means someone on the other side missteps.
> One, we have no evidence they did.
What? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/18/why-protesters...
No, The Guardian interviewing a single protestor in Iran isn’t an open-and-shut case. We have plenty of people tweeting just about everything from Iran. But we don’t yet know how these protests were formed and led, who did the organizing, et cetera. That means we don’t have the data to build a counter factual with yet, and anyone pretending they do is revealing their credibility.
> No, The Guardian interviewing a single protestor in Iran isn’t an open-and-shut case. We have plenty of people tweeting just about everything from Iran. But we don’t yet know how these protests were formed and led, who did the organizing, et cetera. That means we don’t have the data to build a counter factual with yet, and anyone pretending they do is revealing their credibility.
Have you read the news about this? Do you seriously think there's only one protester claiming this that we have any knowledge of, with one outlet reporting on it? Just because I gave one link to get you started that doesn't mean there isn't more if you look for it.
Nobody ever said "this is an open-and-shut case" either. Nor was anybody expecting a scientific proof. The sentence was "there is no evidence," and I produced one such, and you moved the goalposts.
I'll leave one more link here but you can believe whatever you want, it's a waste of time arguing here.
https://time.com/7347090/iran-protesters-trump-help/
If anything, they'd want something like Mossadegh back, which is not to please Trump at all
I saw acoup and preceded to read the 11,000 word essay in full. It gave an excellent overview of Clausewitz theory of war and how it maps to the civil rights movement and the modern non violent anti ice protests. Highly recommend to passerbys as regardless of your political affiliation it makes understanding why protests like the one these students engage in are so prevalent
And if the state is slow to overreact the puppeteers that stage the thing will make sure the overreaction happens on time: they will try to provoke backfire or they just plain kill some protesters themselves and make it look as if the state was involved.
This works against relatively liberal governments. It didn’t work for the Tiananmen Square protestors in 1989 or for the intermittent Iranian protestors of the past couple decades because those regimes were willing to suppress those protests with overwhelming force. Fortunately, the Iranian protestors are likely to have some overwhelming force on their side soon.
I don't think the other governments that collapsed in 1989 in the face of public protest could be honestly described as "relatively liberal".
Fair. I think a better way of putting it is that they lacked the unity to agree to just keep firing on people until they won. A relatively liberal culture is one reason government forces won't do that; in the case of someone like Ceausescu it was more that the generals tended to think his last few years had been a disaster and the rebels had a point.
"relatively" can cover a lot of ground :-)
From my naive observation, the regimes of Eastern Europe had lost their will to perpetuate. (Everybody saw, including party apparatchiks, that the people in the west have better lives. Or at least better goods. :-) )
The cynical take would be that the (smarter) communists in power prepared themselves for the transition, positioning themselves to benefit after the change.
I’m glad it didn’t work in 1989 because China would not have become the technical behemoth it is now if those protests had succeeded. At the same time I don’t want China to succeed and export its brand of capitofascism purely because I don’t think most other countries can find their benevolent dictator. The cognitive dissonance is wild right now.
> because China would not have become the technical behemoth it is now if those protests had succeeded
Taiwan's GDP/capita is 2.6x China's [1]. It grew faster, for longer, in large part through high technology.
Counterfactuals are always hard in history. But we literally have the nationalist government's democratic, capitalist successor kicking in way above its weight class economically and technologically. It's fair to say that if the '89 protest hadn't been massacred, the 21st century would currently be undoubtedly China's to rule. (I'd also put even odds on Taiwan having peacefully reunified by now.)
[1] https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/taiwan/china?sc...
> Taiwan's GDP/capita is 2.6x China's [1]. It grew faster, for longer, in large part through high technology.
Also worth mentioning, all the while being under a military dictatorship (see White Terror) until the late 80's.
It’s much easier to increase the GDP per capita for 20 million people compared to 1.4 billion especially when Taiwan started with a 10x higher GDP per capita. If anything they have lost a significant percentage of their lead. I don’t think what worked in Taiwan would work in China because the scale is astounding.
First, note that Taiwan was initially not democracy, the liberalization started by lifting of martial law in 1987, first parliamentary elections in 1992, first presidential elections in 1996 (this is widely considered the point at which Taiwan became a consolidated democracy)
From your link: 1987: Taiwan 5325, China 300 1996: Taiwan 13588, China 710 --- 2024 Taiwan 34060, China 13314
Whatever starting point you choose, China has risen faster than Taiwan.
In fact, there is non-zero chance that if China had a regime change and heeded west's economic 'advice', it would have gone through equivalent of what Russia went in the 90's.
They are doing fine, thank you, doing it their commie way, despite Zeihan and others preaching China's immminent collapse for decades.
This seems to only have a good track record in places with a democratic tradition. Some dictators have figured out you can just imprison and kill the opposition, and keep doing this until there is no more opposition.
The Khomeini government is not going to just say "oh, you're right" and change. Neither will the Kim or Putin governments. Sometimes - sadly - violence is the least worst answer.
> seems to only have a good track record in places with a democratic tradition
"All that said, there are very obviously regimes in the world that have rendered themselves more-or-less immune to non-violent protest. This isn’t really the place to talk about the broader concept of ‘coup proofing’ and how authoritarian regimes secure internal security, repression and legitimacy in detail. But a certain kind of regime operates effectively as a society-within-a-society, with an armed subset of the population as insiders who receive benefits in status and wealth from the regime in return for their willingness to do violence to maintain it. Such regimes are generally all too willing to gun down thousands or tens of thousands of protestors to maintain power.
The late Assad regime in Syria stands as a clear example of this, as evidently does the current regime in Iran. Such regimes are not immune to an ‘attack on will,’ but they have substantially insulated themselves from it and resistance to these regimes, if it continues, often metastasizes into insurgency or protracted war (as with the above example of Syria) because the pressure has nowhere else to go" (Id.).
Don't say sadly. Don't further the indoctrination that violence is bad.
It is a tool, it cannot be good or bad. States are the most prolific users of violence (even more when you also count potential/threatened, not yet materialized). Anyone who wants to claim that violence is bad has to oppose the existence of states.
Violence is risky, dangerous, unpredictable, costly, etc. But those are practical and legal, not moral, concerns.
Violence is also necessary, as you say, against governments or other actors which cannot be deterred, stopped or punished using other means.
Violence is also most effective when it's certain and overwhelming/indefensible. If we lived in a world where dictators and their flying monkeys get regularly shot or droned to death, we wouldn't have dictators. Not because they'd all end up dead but because nobody would dare try becoming or supporting one.
This is why we have to publicly support _proportional_ punishment of dictators and their supporters, both now and after they've been removed from power. Good people have to use the same tools as bad ones (after all, they are just tools, not good or bad).
> Don't say sadly...It is a tool, it cannot be good or bad
It's not just a tool, it's also a human action. An action that exacts consequences on its victim and its wielder. Necessary and regrettable aren't exclusive.
Why "victim" and not "target"?
What are the input variables which dictate the morality of an action (generally or in this particular case)?
Because 'target' dehumanizes the victim and makes the violence easier to justify?
On the contrary, target is a neutral word, justifying the violence against a target is exactly as difficult as it should be - based on the circumstances instead of emotions.
Victim already implies wrongdoing so it makes justifying just violence harder than it should be.
For the record, i often use target instead of victim when talking about harassment, bullying, rape, etc. because it also doesn't imply surrender to the aggressor or lack of agency.
Some tools are definitely better than others. Also some tools are not "the right tool" for the job.
Fundamentally though I'm not sure I agree with you. Violence is often an emotional reaction. When violence is used as a tool it is usually (always?) used by bad people.
If it helps you reconcile my worldview, I absolutely oppose the existence of states.
> the right tool
Keep in mind this needs to be judged separately in the legal, practical and moral dimension. For example a state might determine that a person _legally_ deserves to spend 10 years in prison. But the same state will attack you in turn if you abduct that person and hold them for 10 years in similar conditions to prison because _practically_, it weakens the state's monopoly on violence, even if _morally_ that action can be justified (i.e. because if a punishment is just there is no moral reason why it should matter who carries it out).
> often ... usually (always?)
I think the crux lies in how we quantify this. If you live in a western democracy, almost all of the violence you come into contact with or hear about is in fact used by bad individuals (thiefs, gang members, drunks, etc.) or the mentally ill. But even then you have the right (moral and usually legal) to defend yourself.
If you live in other places, that violence might more often be used be institutions (such as states or religions) and might not be materialized (it is potential/threatened/implied). E.g. what happens to a muslim woman who refuses to cover her face - the violence usually never happens because she knows it would and therefore doesn't break the rule. It is still violence used to achieve a goal though and she has the same (moral but usually not legal) right to defend herself - even if any practical defense is beyond her ability to do so because the aggressors are too numerous and dispersed.
I would argue that billions of people live in countries where violence is used against them every day because it is a threat which for example stops them from freely accessing information.
In that regard you're right that it is usually used by bad people. But it says nothing about its morality. The way I see it, violence being used by bad people is a stable equilibrium but it can be used by good people during a transition to a different stable state. It is usually not used by good people in a prolonged because materialized violence tends to reduce the number of people on both sides and cannot be sustained forever.
I don't believe that punishment can be just, and ergo I don't see a moral axis on which to judge violent actions for this purpose. I might concede the use of threatened violence as a means of control, but I don't see any pragmatic way to accomplish this without at least occasional actual punishment so it's a bit non sequiter.
It's likely our views are divergent enough that we wont come to a consensus on this, but I appreciate the nuanced discourse!
> I don't believe that punishment can be just
I've encountered such opinions before but never cared to engage with them since they seem utterly alien to me. Can you give me a summary of your opinions or links to some materials?
There are multiple goals to a punishment - e.g.:
- Deterrence - Protection of others / prevention of re-offense - Removal of aggressor from community to minimize further trauma for the victim by having to interact with him - Restitution - Retribution - Vindication - Removing any gains from the offense from the aggressor - Further disadvantaging of the aggressor to make up for `expected_gains * probability_of_getting_caught` - Further disadvantaging of the aggressor to put negative evolutionary pressure on such behavior - Separation of the aggressor from others to prevent him from normalizing / spreading his behavior
These few are just off the top of my head, not all apply to all offenses, and not everyone will agree all of these are desired by their favorite society. But how do you achieve any, let along most, of them without punishment?
Violence is a sometimes necessary tool.
The problem is that it is routinely misused (especially by those who have overwhelming power), and the cases where it is really needed are really, really, really rare.
Even in cases when it appears that the use of violence is justified, the long term consequences (e.g. on culture and mentality, and hence ultimately on normal daily life) are usually such that it would have been better to avoid it in the first place.
At the moment you regularly shoot/drone the dictators, the one deciding who is dictator warranting such violence is the most scary dictator of all.
This talk about good/bad people is such naive childish ploy, are we adults here or what?
> the one deciding
And that's why it's important to establish publicly known and accepted rules about this. Nobody suggests one person deciding this, usually people who imagine this situation have some issues of their own.
But the threat of absolutely any citizen having a decent chance of successfully killing a dictator would probably lead to democratization of power - individuals would not be attracted to having so much power they would likely become targets and we'd hopefully see more effort towards establishing more direct means of decision making.
> This talk about good/bad people is such naive childish ploy, are we adults here or what?
No need for insults, it's a simplification. It's obviously a spectrum. But broadly speaking, people who regularly intentionally harm others for their gain or pleasure (or see nothing wrong with doing it or support those who do) are considered bad. People who go out of their way to help others are good. The rest is neutral. Most people are neutral - don't see injustice or wrongdoing as their problem until it directly negatively affects them.
And obviously, there are people who do both a lot of good and a lot of bad. I consider those bad because more often than not, they only do the good things to gain support or compensate so they can get away with the bad things.
That's my personal opinion and experience. Other people could for example argue for simply summing up the good and the bad and the total would neatly categorize them. Intent also matters and that's even more complex but usually unprovable from the outside.
Violence absolutely is a moral concern.
“If we lived in a world where dictators and their flying monkeys get regularly shot or droned to death, we wouldn't have dictators”
While I agree with the sentiment, the groups who support dictators (oligarchs, religious extremists) would decide to also use violence. So both dictators and the leaders on the side of the people would be murdered and society would be destabilized.
That's why anonymity is important.
We need reliable anonymous communication as yet another source of friction (drink!) which the state needs to overcome to subjugate the people. And that's why so many states, even western democracies, are trying to oppose it now using children or terrorists as an excuse. The authoritarians and wannabe-dictators (most of whom will never achieve their goal or even publicly state it) are already in government positions, always have been.
There are two upsides:
- There are more normal (good or neutral) people than there are authoritarians (bad people - who want to exercise unjustified control over other people's lives). If the leadership attributes are evenly distributed, then they need to kill more of us than we need to kill of them.
- I don't think people should need to be led. It's a symptom of submissivity many have been taught since childhood ("do what I say and don't talk back") and to some extent is it probably natural but hopefully it can be reduced through better upbringing. Teach your children to question everything and to guess people's incentives and motives. What we need need is enough independent thinkers who are able to communicate and self-organize.
Using violence against someone is the ultimate authoritarian act, so for one side this is business as usual while for the other this is the epitome of hypocrisy.
Your mention of anonymity reminds me of assasination politics [0], which is an idea I found enticing in the past. However I've since come to the opinion that such a system is neither optimal nor necessary, though I believe a similar outcome may be inevitable as we continue along the arc of the democratization of power through technical proliferation.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell
> epitome of hypocrisy
Only in single-step moral systems (one which judges actions as moral or immoral solely based on those actions in the moment and not what preceded them).
I have a multi-step moral system. Basically any unjustified intentional harm to a person justified proportional retaliation. Unjustified means it is not harm which is being caused as punishment to a previous offense. And proportional means that it shouldn't be too weak, neither too strong. IMO the optimum is causing something like 1.5-3x more suffering/"disadvantagement". However, it is important to signal to both the original aggressor and any potential witnesses why this is being done so that one is not mistaken for an original aggressor himself.
I am also a fan of judging others by their own moral principles. Basically, if someone thinks it is OK to, for example, limit my freedom or harm me (for various reasons or in various circumstances), I apply the same rules to him and it is therefore OK for me to limit his freedom or harm him (for similar reasons or in similar circumstances).
Either system leads to similar outcomes. (The first allows stronger response to offense, the second allows only mirroring).
Thanks for the link, it looks very interesting but it goes into my to-read list for today.
But if violence is useful or even necessary, how can we pretend to be saintly pacifists?
Why would you want to, unless you live in a domain of indoctrination ("echo chamber") that pacifism is good and anything else is bad?
I always find it useful to ask "why", whenever someone tells me their beliefs. Children do it and adults sometimes tend to find it annoying because they realize they cannot justify their beliefs but being children, they are easy to dismiss. Harder to dismiss an honest question from an adult.
"Sadly" means "it's unfortunate that it got to the state where violence is necessary".
That's a good way to think about it but unfortunately, human language is so imprecise that IMO many people will leave with the conclusion that "sadly" means "using violence makes me sad and implicitly is therefore bad".
Ideally we'd live in a society where laws are a complete and consistent description of a valid (also complete and consistent) moral system. That's not the reality.
(If it's possible at all because morality operates on reality while legality operated on provability - a subset of reality which can be proven to a neutral third party.)
I suspect this kind of nuance is lost on the sort of people who think having qualms about the use of violence is the same thing as pretending to be saintly pacifists.
Re: Sometimes - sadly - violence is the least worst answer.
The least worst for whom?! For normal Iranian people who just want to leave their life?
I hate my current government. Do I think an armed uprising or a USA bombing campaign would would improve things? Heck NO!
> normal Iranian people who just want to leave their life?
Like the ones who are protesting? Idk, when people put themselves in front of a gun I'm inclined to listen to what they're demanding, not folks in their armchairs a world away.
Differentiate legal, practical and moral reasons.
Hitler was so bad that anybody is willing to publicly talk about killing him, there are movies glorifying it, people talk about going back in time and killing baby Hitler. He was so bad that the very strong taboo against killing does not work on him.
So, when _exactly_ did it become OK to kill him? Think about it.
What cumulative sum of his actions between 1889 and 1945 tipped the balance?
Now, do those same rules apply to current dictators or people in the process of becoming dictators even if the taboo is still strong there?
I do not understand what point are you making.
Are you comparing Iran to Hitler?! That does not make sense whatsoever.
If you mean 'At some point, you have to step in and make the change by force. Like we did with Hitler'.
I will say: Yes, at some point it is justified to step in. But, there must be a realistic chance that you will make things better, and low chance that you will make things much, much worse. International consensus would be highly desirable, as well.
In case of Iran: How sure are you that you can make a positive change in Iran by bombing only? If you kill (directly or indirectly, e.g. starvation/ruined water supplies) much more Iranians than Iranians killed themselves (like we did with Saddam), are you really helping?
I don't think there is a will (and maybe not even a capability) for boots on the ground. So, you are just hoping that the new regime would be a better one. Not many positive historical examples there.
Last, but not least: There are serious escalation dangers. What if China/Russia provided Iran with targeting data and/or missiles (not that Iran does not have their own) and Iran hit/sunk a carrier and some destroyers? Are you now in war with China/Russia? At what moment do you cross that line? Will you retreat with the tail between you legs, like from Afghanistan? Or will Israel decide to toss a nuke or two?
The idealism of helping the poor protesters is a noble one, but the road to hell is paved by good intentions.
Good article.
It seems like a consequence is that publicity outside Iran is only going to be effective to the extent that it mobilizes people inside Iran?
(With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention, but I don't think air strikes are going to do it?)
And the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people.
I don't see this ending well.
According to betting exchanges air strikes on Iran are quite unlikely in the very near term, but become more likely than not by this summer or the end of the year. So this doesn't seem to be a matter of near-term attention, more of a prediction that the Iranian government will not manage to shift their stance in a more favorable direction.
There's been a massive movement of air assets towards Iran over the last week or so. That doesn't necessarily mean a strike will happen but it's clearly a threat.
> With the possible exception of getting Trump's attention
Or Tel Aviv, Rihyadh, New Delhi or any other one of the hosts of Iran’s adversaries and enemies.
> the government of Iran seems very willing to kill people
I find it helpful to decompose states as monoliths in these cases. Besides attracting an intervention, the purpose of such a protest would also include motivating state elements to attempt a coup.
Riyadh (along with the rest of the Gulf) and New Delhi are quietly lobbying against some sort of American action, as could be seen with India very recently choosing to switch their UN vote on Israeli settlements from abstaining to against. And the KSA+UAE quickly signing mutual defense pacts with Pakistan+India (reduces their risk of being striked during a US-Iran War as well as forcibly prevents Pakistan and India from entering another war after Operation Sindoor).
TLV (already know) and Islamabad are lobbying the US in favor of striking the regime, as can be seen with the prominence Asim Munir, Muhammad Aamer, and Asim Malik in acting as a backchannel and unofficial advisers to the US on Iran under the Trump admin as well as Netanyahu's continued lobbying for a stronger response to Iran for decades.
> Riyadh (along with the rest of the Gulf) and New Delhi are quietly lobbying against some sort of American action
Nobody wants missiles flying over their homelands. At the same time, both goverments have been supportive of America's non-proliferation work in Iran.
My broad point is there are plenty of folks who may be open to covertly supporting the protesters beyond America blowing blowing god knows what up.
> Nobody wants missiles flying over their homelands. At the same time, both goverments have been supportive of America's non-proliferation work in Iran.
Absolutely
> My broad point is there are plenty of folks who may be open to covertly supporting the protesters beyond America blowing blowing god knows what up.
Makes sense. And yes that's true!
Also, despite all the bots on this page and any other Iran page on HN (pro-protest accounts in Iran please, please, please follow OpSec best practices and remove any personal references of yourself on HN), the reality is a large portion of Iranians do want the regime to end.
They most likely do not want the Shah, but they are tired of the incumbent regime as well. And unlike during the Green Movement, Iran is much more isolated.
I thought the state’s supporters were actually very large in number and the dominant force in Iran. After all past protests, like about the woman who was disappeared and killed, were smaller and were suppressed quickly. What changed? Is it demographics - like are there larger numbers of young people who aren’t for a theocracy?
>What changed? Is it demographics - like are there larger numbers of young people who aren’t for a theocracy?
Some internal factor opaque to western media. Their economy's in the shitter, perhaps. Or the so-called water shortage. Though what it could be exactly, that western intelligence wouldn't be willing to trumpet from the mountaintops, I could not say.
> Though what it could be exactly, that western intelligence wouldn't be willing to trumpet from the mountaintops
Germany used to have great Middle Eastern intel, but they either lost it or got better about leaks. American HUMINT in the Middle East is notoriously awful, so I'd err on the side of us being as confused as everyone else.
I think intelligence like historiography is extremely bad at detecting processes as they are happening, as it cannot understand behaviors of humans that are not part of large bureaucracies it usually researches. Therefore, intelligence in general usually fails in anticipating revolutions
The theory is always easy. The role of agitators since the beginning of times was to preempt the premise of “non-violence”. They will infiltrate a protest and fire the first shots in the most visible way possible to justify a reaction in force. The controlled media will focus on those images, protesters throwing molotovs, firing guns, attacking law enforcement.
That recipe is the theory of the ideal case. If it were that simple authoritarian regimes would be a thing of the past. But those regimes have played the game longer than most protesters have been alive. That’s why these movements barely make a dent even with covert outside support.
> As support for state repression of the movement declines (because repression is not stopping the disruption) and the movement itself proves impossible to extinguish (because repression is recruiting for it), the only viable solution becomes giving the movement its demands.
Public support for the Iranian state has been around zero among the population for years now, the problem is that the Iranian government has probably 2-3 million of armed governmental agents (from police over regular military to IRGC/Basij) [1] and is just about as willing to compromise as the CCP was and is ever since Tiananmen.
In fact, I would say what we've seen from Iran the last weeks (credible sources say around 35k deaths) is even more deaths than in the 1989 China protests which had a death toll of (worst case estimated) 10k.
Against that level of fanatical, money- and religion-driven bloodlust, there is no chance of successful protests, not without serious external aid shifting the power balance. And in the case of Iran, that is the US and Israel wiping the mullahs out of this world, or causing them enough trouble so that the leadership accepts an offer to escape to Moscow alive.
Let me be clear: I despise both Trump and Netanyahu. But this is, IMHO, the one and only chance these two men have to assist a just and rightful cause for once.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46884956
> not without serious external aid shifting the power balance.
I second that non-violent protest alone is a moral high-ground stance that has little effectiveness without an external force amplifying the leverage. The assessment quoted above is strangely superficial taken at face value.
> non-violence
Armed Baloch and Kurdish groups have been boasting of firing on Iranian police. The police are firing back. Hard to call them non-violent when they openly boast about armed attacks. Who knows where they are getting their weapons, with western countries also openly declaring their intent to destabilize Iran.
But also weird to say that the tens of thousands of student protestors are actually violent because totally different people in a different part of the country are armed.
Two things that can both be true: the Iranian regime is fundamentalist and authoritarian and massively abusive to its people, and also western countries are continuing their long history of meddling and funding separatist and terrorist groups with the goal of regime change and establishing a client state (because that worked out so well with the Shah).
> Armed Baloch and Kurdish groups have been boasting of firing on Iranian police
“…it is important to note that while the overall framework of these two approaches is the same their tactics are totally different and indeed fundamentally incompatible in most cases. Someone doing violence in the context of a non-violent movement is actively harming their cause because they are reducing the clear contrast and uncomplicated message the movement is trying to send. Likewise, it is relatively easy to dismiss non-violent supporters of violent movements so long as their core movement remains violent, simply by pointing to the violence of the core movement. It is thus very important for individuals to understand what kind of movement they are in and not ‘cosplay’ the other kind” (Id.).
The core protest is strategically and factually a non-violent protest. It is ringed by armed insurgencies. They undermine each other.
> Who knows where they are getting their weapons, with western countries
Nobody has a monopoly on weapons supply to the Middle East. If you want to seriously interrogate this line of questioning, try to learn what weapons they’re using.
The key part is that there are multiple insurgencies going on simultaneously. There are separatist movements that are looking to create new nations states, while simultaneous there are non-violent protests ongoing, generally looking for regime change and a move away from extremists religious tendencies. Both can be true simultaneously.
> separatist movements
The Kurds had their own state at the end of World War II - the US and UK forced them to dissolve and integrate with Iran.
Actually the US just abandoned the Kurds in Syria two weeks ago as it signed deals with Syria's former al Qaeda leader.
Kurds are people the West foments to armed rebellion, and then quashes, for decades, depending on western material needs at the minute.
Kurds are getting abandoned by the west on a weekly basis for the past like century. It's insane what these people have have gone through,still no resolution.
Wikipedia describes it as a “a short-lived Kurdish self-governing unrecognized state in present-day Iran” and “a puppet state of the Soviet Union”. Doesn’t really count as a free and independent state.
>The Kurds had their own state at the end of World War II - the US and UK forced them to dissolve and integrate with Iran.
The Kurds were also supposed to have their own state at the end of World War 1, but western countries abandoned them and didn't force Turkey to honour its obligations, leaving Turkey free to genocide them just like it did the Armenians, Assyrians and Pontic Greeks.
They effectively had their own state in Rojava up until a few weeks ago, and KRG (Iraq) is pretty damn close to a state, it's basically a state in everything but recognition as the immigration, defense, and law system is almost entirely separated. When I lived Rojava, Assad had zero influence, the military and police and borders were entirely separated, there was zero chance you were going to experience the force of law ofthe state of Syria anywhere you went. The state of Rojava dissolved due to tactical loss of alliance with Arab militias when the rebels retook Damascus. I would characterize their recent loss of state in Syria had more to do with being surrounded by Turkey and dependence on wish-wash arab allies than it had to do with the US or UK.
> with western countries also openly declaring their intent to destabilize Iran
As opposed to standing idly by when the regime 'stabilizes' the country by murdering thousands of people? It's well past the stage where non violent protest or resistance stopped being a viable option..
Dear American, kindly solve your own internal issues first and then - maybe - you can talk on how to "help" some other countries on the literal other side of the world TYM.
I'm cool with that. Let them fight their own battles...but also don't ever ask or expect the US to help.
The problem with your stance is that too many people want it both ways: They don't want the US to intervene, but then also want support in terms of money and special treatment for people emigrating from these countries (and blame the US for the deaths that occur for a terrible government).
Like USA literally abandomed allies and those who helped it in countries like Afghanistan and Iran. Literally betreyed them and put them in danger.
What special treatment are you talking about, really.
You know, maybe it would be just enough if you do not actively work on making their life miserable (sanctions and inciting instability).
There were almost no Syrian refugees before operation Timber-Sycamore. Thank you USA, our dear friend and freedom-sharing soulmate, for unnecessary refugee crisis in Europe (and another one from Ukraine). With friends like that, who needs enemies. Also, as the above two examples (and Biden's Inflation reduction act, and Nuland's 'f*k Europe'), it is not a Trump thing, its USA thing.
>As opposed to standing idly by when the regime 'stabilizes' the country by murdering thousands of people?
Do you demand an invasion of Israel? Because your moral principles seem to demand an invasion and subjugation of Israel.
> your moral principles seem to demand an invasion and subjugation of Israel
There is absolutely no requirement for consistency in geopolitics. Advocating for a position on e.g. Gaza or Iran isn't undermined because that person isn't expending equal efforts on injustice in another theatre.
> There is absolutely no requirement for consistency in geopolitics.
There is in morality, though. The US is a state, but you are a person.
If your modus operandi is simply that of a thug then no, there is not.
Not really. We absolutely have the option to let things play out in Iran and refuse to intervene. There are many regimes in Africa that are as bad or worse than Iran. We seem to have little interest in "regime change" there. You should think about why not.
Well it's not black and white. Sometimes doing the right thing even if you have ulterior motives is better than doing nothing.
Africa is tricky due to historical reasons, though. Any western power that would intervene there without the explicit invitation of the local government would be accused of neo-colonialism etc.
You know, doing the Syria and Libya (and Iraq and Afghanistan) thing was the 'right thing', right?
Do you really believe that after the violent regime change Iran will become the beacon of prosperity in the ME?
Yes, I believe if the things are really out of hands (like Khmer rouge in Kambodia), external intervention is warranted.
That can be done against small/weak states where the result can be achieved fast and without too much bloodshed (compared to what is already going on), and when agreed on by UN. Will most definitely need boots on the ground.
It is an entirely different matter against a 90million vast state like Iran. Note that boots on the ground is not in the cards, and most probably will never be. The approach is 'bomb and hope'. Which guarantees misery and bloodshed of Iranian blood. And if the result is fall of the ayatollah regime, and replaced by nationalists with socialistic tendencies, that would not really cooperate with USA (= sell oil rights and totally dismantle their military) then what? Bomb more? How can you honestly believe this is the best for Iranian people?
Those African regimes don't spend billions a year to promote and fund terrorism in other countries. Remember kids, you can kill millions of your own people (Stalin, Mao, etc) and nobody will care. Heck, some will even celebrate you. But don't mess with people in another country, otherwise outsiders will get involved. Iran is the main source of violence and terrorism in the most violent part of the world. Maybe, just maybe your fake moralizing isn't helping.
Iran has committed or contributed to virtually zero terrorism in America. The American people have no legitimate beef with Iran, America is just acting as Israel's rabid attack dog.
there is quite a beef going on between America and Iran if you haven't noticed, such as taking an entire embassy as hostages or killing a whole lot of US troops in Iraq and Lebanon among other things
Because those countries are not trying to become a global power, with potential nuclear weapon, ICBM and drone capabilities along with a strategic location?
And all while making "death to america" part of their national slogan.
How many of those African regimes sponsor terrorism and piracy against Americans, or adopt “death to America” as a motto?
Iran occasionally attacks Americans in the region or abroad generally, but they don't attack Americans in America despite all of their "death to America" rhetoric (which they are more than entitled to.) If you add up who's fucking with who and who's being fucked with, the imbalance between America and Iran is enormous.
recent examples
https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/manssor-arbabsiar-se...
https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/member-irans-islamic...
Just think about would have happened if protesters in USA shot and killed 150 policemen. Protesters which foreign states (China or Russia) openly boasted they are supporting, and provided them with weapons and communication technology.
Not quite at the level, but Jan 6 is similar. 174 officers were hospitalized, protesters were coordinating over Telegram, and Russian state owned media employees actively ran influence ops to support maga, though especially after the event (not quite “openly boasted”)
The result: nothing of consequence happened because the faction they supported eventually won and was/is legitimately popular
So there are no circumstances where armed rebellion is justifiable and the only legitimate type of resistance to state violence is literally trying to drown the state forces in bodies of non-violent protestors?
At a certain point there ceases to be a middle path between violent resistance and complete surrender.
> Protesters which foreign states (China or Russia)
This type of relativism is dishonest. Of course US is speed running the path to authoritarianism but its not quite there. e.g. morally it would be perfectly acceptable to support weapons to protestors in Russia and not the other way around.
The Iranian regime is objectively evil, period. Regardless of what honest or dishonest motives foreign actors might or might not have.
Uh, sorry, no. At the moment you start arguing by 'The Iranian regime is objectively evil, period', you have totally lost the plot.
The statement 'The USA regime is objectively evil, period' is much more justifiable. Measured, e.g. by the number of people it has killed (both directly, and indirectly by sanctions and support for brutal dictators - e.g. Pinochet, but also Saddam while he was waging war with Iran).
Meddling in internal affairs of other countries has a terrible track record, the world would be so much better off without it.
Armed resistance most often leads to a damn bloody affair in which everybody is worse off, unless the state is already so rotten that it has no will to fight for itself. Supporting such resistance just means more life losses, both on the resistance and on the state side (typically, much more on the resistance side). Hence, the true aim is not to help the resistance, but to weaken the state. No consideration for the life of the local people, the show (the grand game) must go on!
> Meddling in internal affairs of other countries has a terrible track record, the world would be so much better off without it
Wishing away "meddling" is on par with wishing away war. Nice in theory. Practically impossible in practice. (Sovereignty has a Schrödinger's element to it. You really only know you have it when you test its boundaries. And the only test of sovereignty is against another sovereign. The world is littered with sovereigns meddling in each others' affairs and those who aren't sovereign.)
The US is evil because it meddles in the affairs of other countries? Uh huh. Tell me about Iran.
The US is evil because of who it supports? Tell me about Iran.
And at least the US didn't murder thousands of anti-government demonstrators so far this year.
You're right in this: The US is not the shining example of goodness and purity that we wish it to be. But when you condemn the US compared to Iran, using those metrics, it looks suspiciously like motivated reasoning.
>So there are no circumstances where armed rebellion is justifiable
What circumstances has Iran created that demand armed rebellion?
How about killing 30k people (vast majority unarmed as far as I can tell) in a week or two?
The US lies through their teeth in the run up to launching military action. What else is new?
Yeah. right. The Iranian regime is the truth teller sure.
I think beating women on the streets for refusal to wear hijab contributes to dissatisfaction of the populace with the government.
Economic collapse, failed infrastructure, lack of human rights, ruthless religious dictatorship? All while spending 25% of their budget on military ventures.
Just to name a few.
The economic suffering has largely been inflicted deliberately by US sanctions.
This would seem to suggest that sinking an aircraft carrier and frigate or two would actually be justified according to your principles?
> The economic suffering has largely been inflicted deliberately by US sanctions.
Which were imposed for work on atomic bomb. These sanctions didn’t come out of the blue.
US intelligence assessments on the question of whether Iran is building one keep publicly coming out as negative. People who keep repeating that Iran is building one are people who want to see Iran torn apart. Had Iran ACTUALLY been working on one all these decades, we wouldn't be at war with them now because they would have the ultimate deterrence and we'd be too scared. The very fact that we are bombing them every now and then, and are about to launch another massive regime change war campaign against them, is the best confirmation that they are in fact NOT close to having nuclear-armed missiles. Otherwise it would be too risky to start bombing a country that is going to have them in a week, and that is going to also then be VERY pissed that you just bombed the shit out of them, and will want to show you once and for all never to mess with it again. Iran's government is actually REALLY stupid for not having got nuclear weapons already, and they may be about to pay for that mistake with their country's devastation.
Sanctions-wise... When you sanction a society to the degree that Iran has been sanctioned, you force that society to turn to smuggling, black markets, and forces operating outside of usual law and norms, in order for the society to prevent its collapse. That naturally causes corruption to spread because you are involving outlaws in fundamental processes of your economy. This is one of intended consequences of such harsh sanctions, in order to maximize the negative sentiment of the general populace of the targeted country towards their government. It impoverishes the country and makes the populace more likely to accept when approached by foreign agents offering monetary rewards for help in bringing the government down.
Obviously the commenter I responded to is not arguing in good faith so I don't expect anything but an NPC talking point response, so I wish to note that my answer is for a curious passerby.
US intelligence flip flopped on this issue every Friday. Given the high stakes situation, I personally believe that Iran did work on nuclear weapons.
There is no reason whatsoever to enrich uranium beyond like 20% if its not for military purposes in such quantities.
Saying that others are NPCs is interesting. How do you know that you are not an NPC?
I don't understand. If US, Israel, Pakistan, etc can all have nuclear weapons, why can't Iran?
Pakistan did it secretly. Today I doubt that Pakistan would have been allowed to have nukes. Moreover, just because they have nukes it is huge pain in the ass and that why the US and other countries support Pakistan financially — no one wants collapsing state with nuclear weapons.
If Iran gets nuclear weapons, all big Sunni countries will get them too: Saudis, Qatar, etc. we do not want it to happen, as the next Arab spring can collapse those governments, and you can count on any Muslim radical group getting hands on one of those.
Anyway, there are countries that have nuclear weapons, and this Jinny is out of the bottle. But, it doesn’t mean we want to have more of this crap lying around. We need less.
Because Iran has oil.
I think it has more to do with nukes than oil. North Korea is a good example that once you have nukes, no one can touch you. No one wants more nukes, especially in the hands of IR, in this world.
I have no sympathy for the Iranian regime but the US' unilateral actions are worse. At least the Iranians mind their own business.
At this point, every country which has natural resources which the US might want to steal should have nukes.
> At least the Iranians mind their own business
Except they don’t.
North Korea minds their own business.
My principals is that a government should do what's good for the people of their country.
Are your principals that a government should only focus on self preservation?
What would be better for the people of Iran, sinking an American aircraft carrier or just disbanding their nuclear and long range ballistic missile programs?
>The economic suffering has largely been inflicted deliberately by US sanctions.
I dunno. Is the United States required to bake them a cake if it offends our religious principles?
Do you mean Maga?
The US and Iran are very different countries. You can't just fix one variable to be the same in a hypothetical and expect us to nod along as if this reveals any insight. It's a shitty rhetorical tactic.
The Baloch movement is orthogonal to the students movement.
Jaish al-Adl would continue bombing Iranian police stations regardless of who's in power in Tehran as long as India maintains operational control of Chabahar Port, Chabahar-Zahedan Railway, and INSTC.
Similarly, the BLA and BNA would continue bombing Pakistani police stations regardless of who's in power in Islamabad/Pindi as long as China maintains operational control of Gwadar Port, the Western Alignment expressway, and CPEC.
Iran is de facto non-existent in much of Sistan-ve-Balochistan. Heck, Urdu/Hindi fluency remains the norm in much of Iranian Balochistan as a large portion of Iranian Baloch continue to have family ties across the border in Pakistan, work with their brethren in the Gulf as migrant workers, or travel to Karachi, Quetta, or India for medical, religious (most Iranian Baloch are Deobandi), and education services.
There is some crossover otherwise agencies wouldn’t have killed Sabeen Mahmud.
There is a lot of crossover.
Heck, one of our old neighbors growing up was a Iranian Baloch-Pakistani Baloch couple and according to them Baloch marriage across the border was extremely common. And Uzair Baloch had ties to both Iranian and Indian intelligence [0].
The Iran-Pakistan and the Iran-Afghanistan border is very porous because of how isolated Sistan-ve-Balochistan and much of Khorasan is from the rest of Iran.
[0] - https://herald.dawn.com/news/1153754
Oh man I haven’t heard that name in a while. I still remember the Vice documentary going inside his house.
Haha yep, that documentary was wild - very old school Vice before they all got poached.
But anyhow, the entire thing has become a quagmire after CPEC was announced in 2015, because that forced India to confront the very real possibility of being enricled by China during a war.
This is what lead to India's quiet and now overt diplomacy with the Taliban, continued investment in Iran despite the sanctions, and building Saudi and UAE cofinanced megaprojects on the Indo-Pak border in GJ and RJ as well as in JK.
This is a bit confusing, isn't Iran actively trying to destabilize Western countries?
Like for example supporting Russia genocide in Ukraine? As far as I know Ukraine had no qualms with Iran, why is Iran helping it's destruction?
I don't think it's as simple as the Kurds starting the violence, though, except in KRG where they now have autonomous territory that's mostly left alone, the other 3 nations Kurds lived in have lived with systemic violence against them (sometimes to the extent of banning their languages, sometimes more like genocide). Like most of the ME engagements, untangling who is firing back at who ranges from difficult to impossible to untangle depending on what situation you are looking at.
> Who knows where they are getting their weapons, with western countries also openly declaring their intent to destabilize Iran.
When I fought in the YPG (Kurdish militia in Syria), almost all the weapons were Russian / USSR block type weapons, though the AK were stamped with the symbol of many soviet block countries.
I cant imagine the courage that is needed to take part in these protests. Most here, the most revolutionary act they will ever participate on in their life, is criticizing their boss choice of Azure as cloud provider...
I couldn’t do it. Much respect for them. In the 80s when Korea was under quasi military regime, there were many street protests. Molotov cocktails and tear gas being exchanged. Some killed, many beaten down by riot police. Most were led by students.
Yep. I think in America most would be scared of what ICE and DHS would do to them. Hard to imagine facing off an authoritarian militaristic government.
Is it courage or desperation? There obviously is no liberal democratic utopia waiting for them on the other side. Iran will be turned into another Libya, Syria, or Gaza, like the rest of Israel's adversaries. Enormous human suffering so that a fake biblical prophecy can be fulfilled.
Iran is not an adversary of Israel, as much as the IRGC is.
Any subsequent government isn't likely to be a friend of Israel, either. They might decide to stop actively funding attacks and put the money to better use, but I wouldn't be so sure of that. It's the basis of a lot of ally relationships that they will want to maintain.
Iran had good relations with Israel prior to 1979 and never persecuted or expelled its Jews after 1948 unlike every other country in the region. In fact there’s a great degree of very old cultural affinity between Persians and Jews. A secular Iran is likely to have very close ties with Israel if for no other reason than as a backlash to the excesses of the cleracy.
Why? a non-religious Iran would have difficulty maintaining alliances with islamist organizations such as PMF and Hezbollah that were used to slaughter Iranian protestors. Also, like Syria it would probably pivot to a US-led alliance
Are Iranians supposed to believe that after Israel destroyed every hospital and university in Gaza? Insulting. The IRGC is under every brick and pebble.
Generally the IRGC has everything to do with the current state of Gaza, as it was involved in planning and training for the October 7th attack.
This was a masterstroke of Iranian strategy, while it initially looked they have yet again encouraged the Palestinians to commit national suicide on their behalf, in two years it looks like this is going to end with a national suicide of the Islamic Republic
What does Gaza has to do with what Iranians believe?
In war, when civilian infrastructure is used for military purposes, it will get destroyed. Look at all the cities in Ukraine where combat did happen, like Bahmut, or Mariupol. They got absolutely decimated.
Any country on earth engaging in ground combat would do exactly the same tactics as Israel did, and we have plenty of evidence of that from the past 20 years.
I have an ex-colleague from Tehran and he told me that people actually throw parties whenever Israel bombs Iran or assassinates one of the IRGC leaders, because they consider Bibi the only person in the world who is actually standing up to the regime. Make of that what you will.
I applaud their bravery in remaining non violent, but I'm not sure that is the best strategy as the state showed their willingness to just kill everyone.
Would organising an armed resistance be more effective? The state dissappears people. Have them organise and dissappear the leaders of the revolutionary guard or at the very least help another state (like Israel) to target them.
Non violence works only in democracies and other systems where the rulers care about what people think.
Protest of any kind only works in systems where the rulers aren’t insulated from the sentiment of their populace by a steady stream of natural resources money.
Nonviolence works where the rulers have a conscience (or at least where those who carry out the rulers' will do).
Would armed resistance be more effective? How many guns can they get their hands on? I don't know the answer to that, but my expectation is, not many. (I am open to correction.)
> Would armed resistance be more effective?
I mean, with dictators, that's usually what it comes down to. But it often takes years or decades of unrest and repression before someone with enough guns decides they want to be on the right side of history.
It's a fascinating if morbid process we go through every now and then... sort of, building consensus by sacrificing livelihoods and lives.
Iran is one of the most oppressive regimes remaining on this planet, so I really hope this does it. The problem is that revolutionary governments are usually not dumb and do their best to make sure that another revolution can't overthrow them too easily - hardline loyalists with benefits in the military, etc. So this probably ends with a military intervention by other countries or some other sequence of events that will spell even more misery.
The whole history of the Iranian revolution is pretty wacky. It's easy to take a knee-jerk position that "the West did it", and we definitely set some pieces in motion, but Iran wasn't really hurting prior to the revolution, which is why it caught everyone by surprise. The shah made a number of political missteps, there was some sentiment against the UK and the US, and people wanted change... but almost no one wanted a theocratic dictatorship instead. And yet...
Should airdrop uzis to the people
The irony of this submission’s proximity to another titled “Attention Media ≠ Social Networks” cannot escape me.
Balance cannot be restored until a whimsy Show HN appears Monday afternoon followed by an LLM EDC by a high profile FOSS developer the following day and then rounded out by a “cozy web elegy” come Hump Day.
https://archive.ph/2026.02.22-094654/https://www.bbc.com/new...
24th of February is the 4 year anniversary of Russia’s three day special military operation so it would be an interesting time
Earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47108256
"Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic."
Sorry about the whataboutery but it's "funny" how chaos in non Western-allied countries gets so much coverage, even when it doesn't affect us, but shit like the people of France's New Caledonia trying to get independence doesn't:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6S1AFh88PE
I didn't even know about that, just that it was a beautiful place and looked it up one day to fantasize about a potential future vacation, and saw that news.
So Iran may have nukes and is beating up its own people.. If the coverage keeps ramping up, the news cycle echoes of Iraq and Libya all over again. Maybe Trump's planning to make it a trilogy
You mean France's New Caledonia who already had three! referendums, and three times voted to remain part of France and has a new one planned for 2026? That one?
Or is it something else going on there?
When China knocks at the door of New Caledonia - https://www.aspi.org.au/report/when-china-knocks-door-new-ca...
I'm talking about the news coverage. We hear more about the riots and shit in "them" countries than the riots and police killing civilians in Western countries.
Saying that the actions of the Iranian regime doesn’t affect western nations is like being in a burning building, saying that the fire in the floors below doesn’t affect you.
Iran is totally and completely irrelevant to the lives of the vast majority of people in the West.
The country that’s a pillar of the Russo-Chinese axis, which controls vast amounts of oil, which can cripple a shipping channel that moves 20% of the worlds natural gas, which supplies high end drones to Russia and North Korean, which funds terrorist faction across the entire Middle East (that closed the Red Sea shipping lane), which operates terrorist cells in Europe.
That Iran is irrelevant?
Oh please are we back in the 2000s all over again
What a substantial comment!
Just as substantial as the boogeymaning
What?
Iran is the major cause of political instability in the the ME. They are the primary funders for the 3 most active terrorist groups in the ME if not the world. Every single westerner pays more for things because of the instability Iran funds.
Which things?
Houthi attacks on trading ships, for example
They are the only supporters of majority Shiite populations who live under western-supported Sunni and Wahabi dictators. They are a Shiite theocracy surrounded by hostile Western-supported Sunni theocracies.
> Every single westerner pays more for things because of the instability Iran funds.
This is simply a lie. Every single Westerner pays vastly more for things because they spend trillions propping up illegitimate middle eastern dictators in order to keep their natural resources cheap and accessible for sleazy western middlemen to mark up.
What are you trying to say? That you rather have a non western aligned theocracy than an aligned one?
> They are the only supporters of majority Shiite populations who live under western-supported Sunni and Wahabi dictators.
This is categorically false. Iraq is a shiite country.
You know Venezuela, Iran, Kuba. I wonder what all these countries that western Media tells us have "oppressive regimes" have in common.
Funny how they all have spoken out against the genocide in Gaza. One would think that would be the link on why they are targeted. Maybe the problem is not humanitarian but that they are opposing US imperialism?
Just like all the times before. You know when Iraq was preparing weapons of mass destruction. When Libya needed to be bombed for the good of its people so that Islamist warmongers could destroy the country. When the US brought the Taliban into power to fight the Soviets and then invaded Afghanistan to get rid of the Taliban again. And then left and now the Taliban are fine again.
War. War never changes. It is the same old lies.
Now they want to destroy Iran.
Don’t worry, Gaza also has an oppressive regime.
Yes, the oppressive regime is called Israel.
Yeah, the one that forced Hamas to do that: https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna21742496
What is funny to me is that as long as some group is anti-west, they can commit any atrocity, and get a blank check for it. Like, they had to do it, there was not other choice. Completely stripped of any agency not to commit atrocities.
So the worst you could find is a story from 2007 where Hamas killed five collaborators?
Not to mention that it was in the context of a coup attempt against democratically elected Hamas.
Fatah decided to betray its own people. In the West Bank it is helping Israel to oppress their own people and actively fights against Palestinian resistance.
Hamas works perfectly well together with all Palestinian resistance groups from Islamic Jihad to secular ones like the PFLP.
> Fatah decided to betray its own people. In the West Bank it is helping Israel to oppress their own people and actively fights against Palestinian resistance.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/10/23/palestine-authorities-cr...
Does Israel also force Hamas and PA to violently suppress dissent too?
The Palestinian Authority is Fatah and yes they are forced by Israel to suppress dissent.
As for Hamas
> Human Rights Watch met with the Palestinian Authority Intelligence Services in Ramallah, but was unable to accept an offer from Hamas authorities to meet in Gaza because Israel refused to grant permits for senior Human Rights Watch officials to enter the Gaza Strip for this purpose. Israeli authorities also rejected Human Rights Watch’s request for senior representatives to enter Gaza during October 2018 to present this report at a news conference.
> The Palestinian Authority is Fatah and yes they are forced by Israel to suppress dissent.
So, they still choose to do it, right?
> As for Hamas
How Israelis refusal to admit these officials to meet Hamas’s leadership makes the crimes committed by Hamas not true?
> So, they still choose to do it, right?
This discussion started with you saying how bad Hamas was for executing Fatah collaborators in 2007 so not sure what point you are making other than agreeing with Hamas.
> How Israelis refusal to admit these officials to meet Hamas’s leadership makes the crimes committed by Hamas not true?
Inviting Humans Rights Watch does not seem like the behavior of an organization that has crimes to hide. Considering it was not possible to enter Gaza, the fact finding was limited and so it is not conclusive.
Also Humans Rights Watch had to criticize "both sides" because of political pressure. It is a move to seem impartial.
Hamas does not oppress its people. It couldn't survive a day without the support of its people. It kills collaborators as any resistance movement needs to do. Nothing wrong with that.
Holy hell, an actual bonafide unashamed Hamas apologizer in the wild.
Here you go, they have their own category of atrocities in Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Hamas_attacks
> Hamas does not oppress its people.
Of course not, and the report is made up.
> but shit like the people of France's New Caledonia trying to get independence doesn't
They had 3 referendums since 2018. So it seems nobody is stopping them from leaving if they wanted to...
Like, there is a lot of killing going on over there, so an article about it here and there is not "funny" nor "weird". It is not just "chaos".
Hopefully the Iranian government doesn't take a page out of the US Epstein regime playbook and start trampling on students free speech for daring to speak against their mass Holocaust and baby bloodletting in Gaza and shooting protestors dead on the streets.
> dead on the streets.
Iran regime already does that, they gunned-down thousands just last month, including 100's of public hangings.
smashah and others in this thread will deny that happened or downplay the numbers.
I've been hearing concerning reports that the Iranian Government in a matter of a few days "slaughtered 4 Quadrillion Cattle" according to Mossad Internal Reports. If Iran managed that in a few days imagine how many cattle children The Worldwide Epstein Regime ritually sacrificed to Satan in Gaza almost 3 years? Much to consider!
This is incredibly unfortunate that the Iranian government is following the worldwide Epstein regime in the West
Epstein regime? Sure enough, the rest of your comment maintains the same line of incoherent meme fueled rant.
It's a very funny meme when the The Worldwide Epstein Regime sends it's Satan's Chosen Einsatzgruppen to sacrifice tens of thousands of children in Gaza? Just because you consider those children as subhuman cattle? Please clarify your position on the Holocaust of Children in Gaza.
The entity that is choosing to sacrifice children in Gaza is Hamas. When you send kids as scouts to spy on enemy forces you assume they’re gonna get hurt. When you set up military commands inside schools and hospitals you choose to sacrifice your population.
please clarify your position on using civilians as sacrificial cannon fodder in war.
A reminder that American economic sanctions are a primary cause of the situation that causes protests against the Iranian government. Our government is attempting to destroy Iran, an independent nation that is not our enemy.
When will American students stage a large scale anti-government protest against the regime? Oh right, the billionaires and zionist lobby cracked down on the encampments with the (violent) help of police and by firing three Ivy League Presidents to coerce the entire educational system to abandon whatever liberal principles remained.
No war on Iran.
> independent nation that is not our enemy.
That is why when they chant "Death to America" they mean that they love us?
They hate the government that is trying to destroy their entire society. Stop attacking a country half-way around the world, they will stop even thinking about us.
> They hate the government that is trying to destroy their entire society.
Given Irans track record wrt women rights, and inability of Iranians to accept violence toward their women, IR doesn’t need the US or anyone else to destroy their society.
> Stop attacking a country half-way around the world, they will stop even thinking about us.
Why would they? IR is ruled by radical Muslims who believe in spreading the rule of Islamic Revolution. Why should we not believe them?
Now apply this argument to Saudi Arabia and ask yourself why Iran is on the receiving end of this propaganda and not the former. America gives zero fucks about the oppressed minorities of this world, in fact, it is to blame for a lot of this oppression. War and starvation never improved any society.
Any society will collapse if deprived of essential goods by an external force. Cultural practices that we disagree with can be remediated through peaceful means or at least settled by Iranians. It's not like women aren't capable of resistance or their own political voice. We can support change in Iranian society without calling for the destruction of their government by any means necessary. I presume you also wish to invade U.S. ally Saudi Arabia.
> Why would they? IR is ruled by radical Muslims who believe in spreading the rule of Islamic Revolution. Why should we not believe them?
I also presume you also spend all day thinking about how you wish to destroy random African countries you barely know the name of. You believe in spreading "democracy" like a French revolutionary from the early 1800s.
> Any society will collapse if deprived of essential goods by an external force.
IR is not deprived of essential goods. They are trading with all the neighbors and many international partners.
> Cultural practices that we disagree with can be remediated through peaceful means or at least settled by Iranians. It's not like women aren't capable of resistance or their own political voice.
Do you mean cultural practice of beating women to death for refusal to wear hijab? What is exactly the voice these women have?
> I presume you also wish to invade U.S. ally Saudi Arabia.
No, I am not. FWIW saudis seem to be totally fine with their ruling family. Iranians, on the other hand, are not. There is a huge difference between what we see in Iran, and what we see in SA. Moreover, saudis do no chant “death to america”, do not believe in the spread of Islamic revolution, and are not working on nuclear weapons.
> I also presume you also spend all day thinking about how you wish to destroy random African countries you barely know the name of.
Can you explain to me how did you get from me pointing out that IR is a regime governed by the idea of spreading Islamic revolution and random African countries?
> You believe in spreading "democracy" like a French revolutionary from the early 1800s.
lol no. You can’t spread democracy if locals don’t believe in democracy. Iranians believe in democracy, and they do have a chance once the regime is gone, or, at least they give up their nukes, and stop enrichment.
If Iran has nukes, Saudis and others in the region would want nukes. I think we need to have fewer nukes in the world and not more.
What’s all that burning of American flag, chanting “death to america”, and calling the USA “the great devil” all about then? Playful banter?
Liberal doesn't mean Democrat. And those Ivies largely purged anyone who was actually Liberal years ago. But sure, keep blaming the Jews, it doesn't at all make you look conspiratorial. I will never understand why extremist groups all have that in common.
I'm Jewish and anti-zionist. I meant liberalism as in the commitment to enlightenment principles. At one point, the Republican party also shared that base commitment even if it wanted the 1890s version of that.
Many are protesting because of the sanctions, considered war crimes, imposed by the west onto them.
The US and its allies have attacked the currency and the availability of goods for the common Iranian. This is how regime change works. This is what is happening in Cuba as well. You starve and disenfranchise the average person to make regime change by internal bad-actors more successful.
Therefore many citizens protest against their conditions, not against their government. The misconstruing of this reality is intentional and an essential part of war mongering.
We understand this and we are smarter than the BBC thinks we are. Now ask yourself why must young Americans in the armed forces put their lives on the line for this?
While the sanctions may have triggered the current round of protests, what about the previous rounds? [1] Why are you ignoring those? Many Iranians hate their regime because it’s an oppressive theocratic one.
Just as an example of why Iranians would hate their regime, the mismanagement and corruption in the area of water management has led to severe water shortages in Tehran and other areas [2].
[1] https://www.dw.com/en/iran-a-timeline-of-mass-protests-since...
[2] https://e360.yale.edu/features/iran-water-drought-dams-qanat...
I think it's right and honest to admit that this is one of the methods that sanctions are supposed to work. But it's also not the only method - and framing the intent as inducing "regime change by internal bad-actors" is also a very slanted way to articulate intent, as well as what is happening on the ground.
On the other hand, without being on the ground, we cannot really say what the real balance of grievances are.
"Sanctions" are just a sanitized way of saying "forced starvation" and "denying basic medical care" because that's what happens. For Cuba, this has been going on so long that the CIA documents about the effect of sanctions and a blockade itself has been declassified (in 2005) [1]. When faced with a UN report that estimated 500,000 children had been killed by US sanctions in 1996, then UN Ambassador and later US Secretary of State Madeline Albright famously said "the price was worth it" [2].
And sanctions don't actually work. Not against enemies anyway. Just like Cuba has endured 60+ years of sanctions and Russia has endured Ukraine-related sanctions, enemies have or build an economy to be resilient to the sanctions to the point that the regime survives, even thrives in the face of perceived exteranl threats.
Probably the only successful use of sanctions was South Africa. Why? Because apartheid South Africa was an ally so the BDS movement crippled the economy.
And most of the time sanctions have no other reason than the affected country dared to not be exploited by the West and Western companies.
[1]: https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP79R00904A0008000...
[2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iFYaeoE3n4
Funny that this is downvoted. I guess its not fitting the mainstream 'feel good about ourselved, bad, bad, Iran' narrative. Just have a look at Besson's Davos interview.
You only think that because your political partisanship overwhelms your geopolitical knowledge. But sure, a country that is the primary funder of terrorism in the ME is doing nothing wrong.
They didn't, for instance, mess up the building of water infrastructure which is causing the taps to run dry in their capitol. Oh wait, they did. But since that has nothing to do with sanctions, you didn't hear about it because it doesn't fit a specific political narrative.
Also, apparently everyone in the world has the right to trade with the west, even if they are doing everything in their power to destroy the west.
PS Iran funds the Russian war in Ukraine.
You really can't trust any western news about Iran. For whatever reason, western powers want to start a war with Iran so badly and the media is always ready to help start a war.
> For whatever reason…
Seems like you acknowledge your own lack of understanding of the subject (admirable!). Why then do you make such bold claims?
If Iran bent the knee to the State Dept like Saudi etc we wouldn’t give a shit who they cracked down on. When they don’t play ball with our policy goals we’re super duper interested in how free they are. Nevermind that pesky 2014 Princeton study that proves our democracy to be a sham.
I see the war propaganda slop is in full swing. Does anyone buy this nonsense anymore?
It is going to be quite interesting when the midterms put the Democrats into power. I don't expect it to change anything, because the whole system is just a fake democratic ruse, a facade, but it will surely introduce even more volatility when the blue team starts also realizing that it's just lies and the agenda of the parasitic Epstein Class continues unabated regardless of "our democracy".
CIA and Mossad with their usual hobby.
I'm sure they're both helping a best they can, but they are not ginning up opposition from whole cloth. Iranians have a very long list of grievances against a brutal regime.
Israel wants Iran destroyed so badly, interesting it suddenly loves Iranians now after it bombed them indiscriminately killing many civilians just last year.
HN'ers hopefully arent stupid to fall for obvious propaganda?
The ones killing Iranians indiscriminately are the Iranian police.
Let's see your sources about Israel killing all these Iranians in the last conflict. Israel was too busy hunting ICBMs and had no interest in killing Iranians on the street.
Yeah, waiting for those sources to show up.
BBC is propaganda outlet. Don't fall for war drums, worry about your own oppressive rulling class.
[flagged]
We have no policy or pattern of boosting or downweighting protests in any particular country, and neither of us are from the U.S. I think this one was only on the front page for a few hours over night when we were both asleep and had already been downweighted by the flamewar detector by the time we were online in the morning. Most protests in any country are probably off topic on HN due to being related to mainstream news.
99% of the moderation at HN is just the accumulated actions of your fellow readers who upvote, downvote, flag and vouch for stories and comments. If you don't like their choices or their politics, maybe try Bluesky?
>> 99% of the moderation at HN is just the accumulated actions of your fellow readers who upvote
This is false, and even the moderators admit it
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46396613
> So the mods at HN allow us too read about other countries protests, but not in the U.S.? I guess if all those illegal immigrants had oil, it'd be okay?
> Despite how dark and sinister you've made everything sound, you've mostly just rephrased what I wrote, with a lot of pejoratives. In that sense, you're right—there isn't much disagreement here. You just think we're wrong and bad to run HN the way we do, and that's fine.
There’s nothing wrong with someone not liking how HN is run. It’s just weird to complain about it, on HN no less, when there so many other sites already run by people who share your politics, sites where you would feel welcome and you wouldn’t have to invent scary stories about the ulterior motives of moderators.
HN’s attempt to focus makes it special, unique and valuable. Turning it into a general political free for fall like every other site would destroy that.
That is a totally different argument, than the one you were making.
Ok, how about….
95% of the moderation at HN is just the accumulated actions of your fellow readers who upvote, downvote, flag and vouch for stories and comments. If you don't like their choices or their politics, maybe try Bluesky?