Author here. Quick context on what this is and why I'm posting it now.
I fitted a saturating exponential (3 free parameters) to the BTC/Gold ratio using 10 years of monthly data (2015–2024). R² = 0.91. The basic idea: gold's supply grows ~2% annually; Bitcoin's is capped. Once you model the adoption surge as a transient that decays, you get a clean fit and specific predictions.
The model has been running out-of-sample since January 2025 — 14 months. Yes, the ratio has dropped from 35 oz to 12 oz since July. The model is being stress-tested right now. The statistical scorecard for it is still looking good (cumulative z-score +0.93), because the early months ran above prediction and the bust is pulling the sum back toward zero. If the bust continues, the test will eventually reject the model — publicly, on the dashboard. That's the point.
Paper is on SSRN, code is on GitHub (linked at top of page). Happy to discuss methodology, assumptions, or limitations.
Author here. Quick context on what this is and why I'm posting it now.
I fitted a saturating exponential (3 free parameters) to the BTC/Gold ratio using 10 years of monthly data (2015–2024). R² = 0.91. The basic idea: gold's supply grows ~2% annually; Bitcoin's is capped. Once you model the adoption surge as a transient that decays, you get a clean fit and specific predictions.
The model has been running out-of-sample since January 2025 — 14 months. Yes, the ratio has dropped from 35 oz to 12 oz since July. The model is being stress-tested right now. The statistical scorecard for it is still looking good (cumulative z-score +0.93), because the early months ran above prediction and the bust is pulling the sum back toward zero. If the bust continues, the test will eventually reject the model — publicly, on the dashboard. That's the point.
Paper is on SSRN, code is on GitHub (linked at top of page). Happy to discuss methodology, assumptions, or limitations.
*(edited for typo)