- The real, fundamental economy has been propped up by shale oil
- Shale is running out, energy needs are increasing rapidly
- Debt is coming due
- Tariffs are an effort to manage the debt situation by creating a Eurodollar vacuum
- Politicians and the public don’t really understand this, so the whole thing is going to end up framed as a geopolitical conflict rather than a debt crisis
- The framing is dangerous and may create a real kinetic conflict due to misunderstandings at home and abroad
As a systems thinker I suspect this is closer to reality than the usual narratives. Historically, most large scale conflicts reduce to resource conflicts, even if they have political or ideological involvement.
Tldr since I’m sure many won’t read it:
- The real, fundamental economy has been propped up by shale oil
- Shale is running out, energy needs are increasing rapidly
- Debt is coming due
- Tariffs are an effort to manage the debt situation by creating a Eurodollar vacuum
- Politicians and the public don’t really understand this, so the whole thing is going to end up framed as a geopolitical conflict rather than a debt crisis
- The framing is dangerous and may create a real kinetic conflict due to misunderstandings at home and abroad
As a systems thinker I suspect this is closer to reality than the usual narratives. Historically, most large scale conflicts reduce to resource conflicts, even if they have political or ideological involvement.