Some speculation....I think the long term plan here is Iran launching Shadeeds from the back of a pickups into the gulf states every few days until it wears out both Gulf and American missile defense. 100's of Drones every week targeting Refineries, LNG Gas terminals, Data Centers, Hotels, etc, just like the Russians do to Kyiv every night. The only thing that can stop it will be a ground invasion.
Russia and China have the USA right where they want them unless there is a regime collapse (highly unlikely) or a ground invasion (more likely). The Gulf States will be exhausted and the USA will be ground down defending them.
There is also a supply route through the Caspian for China and Russia to bolster Iranian defense. Is the USA willing to invade Russia to stop it?
This is much bigger than most Americans can comprehend at the moment, no one has ever won a war with just an air assault. Iran is twice as big as Iraq, and Israel and the USA have thrown everything they can at it short of a Nuclear bomb and it is still standing.
> the long term plan here is Iran launching Shadeeds from the back of a pickups into the gulf states every few days
The long-term outcome is Iran’s domestic drone production gets decimated. If America, meanwhile, gets to field test its new anti-drone kit, from gun- and laser-based platforms to kamikaze drones.
> only thing that can stop it will be a ground invasion
Of course not. You blow up the factories and inventory. Ukraine was prohibited by Biden for ages from striking inside Russia, to where the drones and missiles were being made.
> There is also a supply route through the Caspian for China and Russia to bolster Iranian defense. Is the USA willing to invade Russia to stop it?
The pressure point on Putin is tasking the Coast Guard with seizing Russian shadow-fleet tankers again.
> no one has ever won a war with just an air assault
No one has ever effected regime change with just air power. America could absolutely achieve a war aim with air power alone once Hegseth gets around to defining it.
> The long-term outcome is Iran’s domestic drone production gets decimated.
That is impossible without committing to boots on the ground.
> Of course not. You blow up the factories and inventory.
Where are the factories? Where are the stockpiles? If they don't show up on satellite imagery, how do you find them? Boots on the ground. If they're hidden underground or beneath a mountain, how do you blow them up? Boots on the ground.
> No one has ever effected regime change with just air power. America could absolutely achieve a war aim with air power alone once Hegseth gets around to defining it.
The reason he hasn't gotten around to defining a war aim is that there is no legitimate war aim. Netanyahu wanted to blow shit up and the Pentagon foolishly followed along instead of telling him "you're on your own".
Calling it "Iran's war effort" just feels wrong.
> Calling it "Iran's war effort" just feels wrong
Iran’s [war effort]. Not [Iran’s war] effort.
"Iran's defense effort" would be correct. They are defending against American Department of War (former Department of Defense).
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Some speculation....I think the long term plan here is Iran launching Shadeeds from the back of a pickups into the gulf states every few days until it wears out both Gulf and American missile defense. 100's of Drones every week targeting Refineries, LNG Gas terminals, Data Centers, Hotels, etc, just like the Russians do to Kyiv every night. The only thing that can stop it will be a ground invasion.
Russia and China have the USA right where they want them unless there is a regime collapse (highly unlikely) or a ground invasion (more likely). The Gulf States will be exhausted and the USA will be ground down defending them.
There is also a supply route through the Caspian for China and Russia to bolster Iranian defense. Is the USA willing to invade Russia to stop it?
This is much bigger than most Americans can comprehend at the moment, no one has ever won a war with just an air assault. Iran is twice as big as Iraq, and Israel and the USA have thrown everything they can at it short of a Nuclear bomb and it is still standing.
Just saying...
> the long term plan here is Iran launching Shadeeds from the back of a pickups into the gulf states every few days
The long-term outcome is Iran’s domestic drone production gets decimated. If America, meanwhile, gets to field test its new anti-drone kit, from gun- and laser-based platforms to kamikaze drones.
> only thing that can stop it will be a ground invasion
Of course not. You blow up the factories and inventory. Ukraine was prohibited by Biden for ages from striking inside Russia, to where the drones and missiles were being made.
> There is also a supply route through the Caspian for China and Russia to bolster Iranian defense. Is the USA willing to invade Russia to stop it?
The pressure point on Putin is tasking the Coast Guard with seizing Russian shadow-fleet tankers again.
> no one has ever won a war with just an air assault
No one has ever effected regime change with just air power. America could absolutely achieve a war aim with air power alone once Hegseth gets around to defining it.
> The long-term outcome is Iran’s domestic drone production gets decimated.
That is impossible without committing to boots on the ground.
> Of course not. You blow up the factories and inventory.
Where are the factories? Where are the stockpiles? If they don't show up on satellite imagery, how do you find them? Boots on the ground. If they're hidden underground or beneath a mountain, how do you blow them up? Boots on the ground.
> No one has ever effected regime change with just air power. America could absolutely achieve a war aim with air power alone once Hegseth gets around to defining it.
The reason he hasn't gotten around to defining a war aim is that there is no legitimate war aim. Netanyahu wanted to blow shit up and the Pentagon foolishly followed along instead of telling him "you're on your own".