Am I supposed to take away from these plots that we are all good since it's been steadily above the prior record in 1940 since 2020? Or is everything okay since it was really going up and it did course correct to a bit more of a straight line recently?
The article seems to be communicating that this rate of spending is not sustainable.
Not to say that it's okay, and Japan's economy certainly has issues with stagnation due to the debt load, but it's also not a "we have imminent hyperinflation" kind of thing either.
The concern with the past five months isn't so much the level of debt, it's the rate of change - we're increasing it faster than in the past... and this isn't a COVID-level crisis or a 2008-style deep recession either where Keynesian logic might make more sense.
This is old information. Japan's borrowing costs have spiked and are ~2.18% as of this comment. Yields are surging due to their debt load (currently ~240% of GDP).
The real question is what percentage of GDP is directly created (or continues to exist) because of the increased debt.
When this metric was created the GDP was more authentic and not debt driven.
> Economists aren’t necessarily worried by the total level of debt (in fact, government debt is a necessary foundation of global markets). Rather it’s the debt-to-GDP ratio, which measures a nation’s borrowing against its growth
The article has more details than just the headline. For example:
> Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), said that interest payments on the debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion this year, and will surpass $2 trillion by 2036.
That’s very concerning. There’s no plan to run balanced budgets and stop deficits. And no plan to reduce debt. And no plan on economic competitiveness against China. American politics is mostly dominated by irrelevant things that won’t fix the fundamental problems that will come to affect us in the future.
When I was in finance there was a question whether US debt would crowd out other debt instruments. The answer, obviously, is "no." There seems to be an unlimited appetite for zero-risk debt, which makes no sense.
Linkbait headline. Without context, these figures mean nothing.
You can see the debt-to-GDP ratios here:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDGDPA188S
Am I supposed to take away from these plots that we are all good since it's been steadily above the prior record in 1940 since 2020? Or is everything okay since it was really going up and it did course correct to a bit more of a straight line recently?
The article seems to be communicating that this rate of spending is not sustainable.
Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's.
https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/11792/what-lev...
Not to say that it's okay, and Japan's economy certainly has issues with stagnation due to the debt load, but it's also not a "we have imminent hyperinflation" kind of thing either.
The concern with the past five months isn't so much the level of debt, it's the rate of change - we're increasing it faster than in the past... and this isn't a COVID-level crisis or a 2008-style deep recession either where Keynesian logic might make more sense.
> Japan debt/GDP is more than twice the US's.
Japan borrows on 0.75% interest rate compared to current US's 3.5%.
This is old information. Japan's borrowing costs have spiked and are ~2.18% as of this comment. Yields are surging due to their debt load (currently ~240% of GDP).
Citations:
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excite...
https://www.axios.com/2026/01/26/japan-bond-market-dollar-ye...
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026012067/japa...
https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-japan-can-escape-its...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2dz11pykwno
Is Japan still the largest creditor in the world???
The real question is what percentage of GDP is directly created (or continues to exist) because of the increased debt. When this metric was created the GDP was more authentic and not debt driven.
The article literary addresses this:
> Economists aren’t necessarily worried by the total level of debt (in fact, government debt is a necessary foundation of global markets). Rather it’s the debt-to-GDP ratio, which measures a nation’s borrowing against its growth
mirror:
https://archive.ph/N4tZ9
The article has more details than just the headline. For example:
> Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), said that interest payments on the debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion this year, and will surpass $2 trillion by 2036.
That’s very concerning. There’s no plan to run balanced budgets and stop deficits. And no plan to reduce debt. And no plan on economic competitiveness against China. American politics is mostly dominated by irrelevant things that won’t fix the fundamental problems that will come to affect us in the future.
They can always at some point pull a modern day Nixon Shock and cancel everything. Make all that debt go poof.
The plan is a smash and grab for whoever is smart enough to scam there way through it amd then probably default like every other empire
That looks pretty bad, and getting worse.
The correct question is: from whom?
When I was in finance there was a question whether US debt would crowd out other debt instruments. The answer, obviously, is "no." There seems to be an unlimited appetite for zero-risk debt, which makes no sense.
This must be false. The president wouldn't lie, and if they lied on such a grand scale people wouldnt let them get away with it.
Everyone knows they made 17 trillion dollars from the tariffs.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
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There are many interpretations of these data. This is not one of them. America will sacrifice its foreign lenders before it does its military.
As long as the military is more powerful than its creditors its fine