They are attempting MAD but without nukes. The problem is that while the US seems to have obliterated Iran, they have no endgame plan on actually accomplishing a regime change. They thought about arming Kurdish Iranians but wen't against the idea, now we seem to be in a perpetual state of "it is over / it is not over".
Iran does not seem obliterated to me at all. Also, Israel does not want regime change. They want failed state, either civil war or otherwise incapabke to govern. USA does not know what the fuck it wants.
If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz, this price target is reasonable. No insurance will cover vessels attempting to transit the strait if mined. Sal Mercogliano Of "What's Going on With Shipping?" covers this in his latest videos [1]. Bloomberg has been covering this in great detail also [2].
Which is kind of difficult to execute when prevented party has shores all the way around the prohibited area and antiship missiles and artillery on these shores.
Shore anti-ship missiles are a thing. Also you can use regular artillery to shell ships this close to your shores - Ukrainians are able to hit a tank-sized target on 10+ kilometers with regular 155mm artillery. There is no reason why Iran should not be able to achieve the same thing with ship-sized targets.
Additionally Iran has navy drones like Ukraine does. And Russians effectively run away from them and hid in Novorossiysk harbor.
They already hit 3 ships. They don't need to mine the strait, just making it impassable due to insurance cost because you can end up with a hole in a tanker is enough.
That would be a foolish move for Iran, but they seem to be making a lot of foolish moves. Isn’t there a saying about never throwing away the moral high ground? As though they are trying to out-stupid Netanyahu’s man in the whitehouse.
Kindof stupid to attack them the way we did, no planning, rash, cruel (school children killed) etc. Now we're all going to have to suffer through the consequences regardless of whether the Iranian regime survives or not.
Its way more painful for rest of the world except Russia, and not US. They will make little pain on US, and make world and neighbors extremely angry on them.
They are attempting MAD but without nukes. The problem is that while the US seems to have obliterated Iran, they have no endgame plan on actually accomplishing a regime change. They thought about arming Kurdish Iranians but wen't against the idea, now we seem to be in a perpetual state of "it is over / it is not over".
Iran does not seem obliterated to me at all. Also, Israel does not want regime change. They want failed state, either civil war or otherwise incapabke to govern. USA does not know what the fuck it wants.
The USA wants whatever Bibi wants.
ATH was <$148 and we're not even breaching COVID highs and we're down ~30% from three days ago.
It is dropping because countries released strategic oil reserves. That's temporary band aid.
...and a very bad idea IMHO and will fire back soon?
If Iran will close the strait and USA will fail to open it, then yeah very likely will shoot up.
If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz, this price target is reasonable. No insurance will cover vessels attempting to transit the strait if mined. Sal Mercogliano Of "What's Going on With Shipping?" covers this in his latest videos [1]. Bloomberg has been covering this in great detail also [2].
[1] https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/industries/energy
> If they successfully mine the Strait of Hormuz
allies can just prohibit any ships to enter that area from Iranian shore or be attacked, not sure how Iran can plant those mines then.
Iran has an MLRS mining system.
https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/breaking...
It won't take out a military ship but its more than enough for tankers to not cross the straight.
Ok, then the only hope is that they are very few and maybe already destroyed.
US says it destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels as Iran threatens to block Gulf oil exports
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/iran-fires-drones-towa...
You can also kick out a mine out of a speed boat or USV, so that sounds like a non issue.
"allies can just prohibit any (vessels) to enter that area "
Which is kind of difficult to execute when prevented party has shores all the way around the prohibited area and antiship missiles and artillery on these shores.
Shore anti-ship missiles are a thing. Also you can use regular artillery to shell ships this close to your shores - Ukrainians are able to hit a tank-sized target on 10+ kilometers with regular 155mm artillery. There is no reason why Iran should not be able to achieve the same thing with ship-sized targets.
Additionally Iran has navy drones like Ukraine does. And Russians effectively run away from them and hid in Novorossiysk harbor.
Ignoring the prohibition, for one.
maybe they did already?
After what you did to them, I hope this will be the biggest problem.
Yesterday I posted the following link to an interview with David Woo (he's a finance guy). It's on this topic, and quite good:
David Woo: The Market Is Wrong About Iran, Oil and What Comes Next
https://youtube.com/watch?v=W2Z6UVv_wl4
Iran has perfected the "full of shit" playbook. The press repeat it because clickbait.
They already hit 3 ships. They don't need to mine the strait, just making it impassable due to insurance cost because you can end up with a hole in a tanker is enough.
Meanwhile on the other side of the conflict we have "war is complete" and "Iran better remove their mines or we will bomb them".
It's shit all the way down.
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That would be a foolish move for Iran, but they seem to be making a lot of foolish moves. Isn’t there a saying about never throwing away the moral high ground? As though they are trying to out-stupid Netanyahu’s man in the whitehouse.
Kindof stupid to attack them the way we did, no planning, rash, cruel (school children killed) etc. Now we're all going to have to suffer through the consequences regardless of whether the Iranian regime survives or not.
I think the reasoning is that if you don't make an adventure like this painful, the US will not think twice about returning again.
Its way more painful for rest of the world except Russia, and not US. They will make little pain on US, and make world and neighbors extremely angry on them.
Yeah, I think they concluded that measured responses before just made Trump think escalating is safe.
And like, Trump always escalates if he thinks he can.