Earth is now heating up twice as fast as in previous decades

(newscientist.com)

131 points | by Anon84 6 hours ago ago

121 comments

  • MSFT_Edging 4 hours ago ago

    We may lose stable seasons for growing crops, but at least the chat bot can embed an ad into your question while you wait for your burrito taxi.

    What is the point of this convenience when it really seems to just be making people miserable and isolated?

    We're driving off a cliff, and our elected government has a death drive.

    • 21asdffdsa12 4 hours ago ago

      Worse, they have a "i want to flee responsibility" drive. You can see it in there eyes, when they hold press conferences, while having on the paper the verbose "you are absolutely right". They want the perks, not the responsibility that comes with power.

      • scoofy an hour ago ago

        "This is AI's fault"

        - People in automobiles.

    • otikik 4 hours ago ago

      > your burrito taxi

      Which you are financing through a BNPL platform.

      • sph 3 hours ago ago

        I just introduced a negligible, but non-zero amount, of carbon in the atmosphere to expand your unnecessary acronym into "Buy Now, Pay Later."

        • iamalizard 2 hours ago ago

          But later you'll save mental tokens when reading "BNPL" instead of "Buy now, pay later".

      • selimthegrim 3 hours ago ago

        The financing for the Alameda-Weehawken burrito tunnel got stolen to build a bridge.

    • motbus3 3 hours ago ago

      Which burrito? The one which couldn't be mad because there is not food?

      • alnwlsn 2 hours ago ago

        That's why it has to come by taxi.

    • andai 2 hours ago ago

      Also our unelected culture.

    • casey2 2 hours ago ago

      2 more weeks til "stable seasons" collapse. Good thing greenhouses have existed for millenia.

      • secretsatan 2 hours ago ago

        Who’s paying to build them?

    • vivzkestrel an hour ago ago

      if you are using that chatbot, you are also a part of the problem, just saying

      their product wouldnt run if they had 0 users

      • fragmede an hour ago ago

        Unfortunately in this real life iterated prisoner's dilemma, half of everyone is vocally defecting, so you not using the chatbot is hurting you whilst others get ahead.

    • modzu an hour ago ago

      jesus will save us

    • cindyllm an hour ago ago

      [dead]

    • cindyllm 4 hours ago ago

      [dead]

    • stavros 4 hours ago ago

      Stop focusing on energy usage and start focusing on energy generation. It doesn't matter how much energy we consume if it comes from renewables.

      • jfengel 4 hours ago ago

        Which is why we have just paid billions of dollars to cancel a renewable power project. And are imposing extra fees on cars that can be driven on renewable energy.

        So, now I'm focused. I'm very focused.

        • satvikpendem 2 hours ago ago

          > we

          Maybe America, not many countries on earth, especially in Asia which are full steam ahead on renewables, pun intended.

        • api 4 hours ago ago

          OP did not say this is what we were doing. Said this is what we should do.

          What we are doing is attempting to hold back progress on generation while subsidizing demand, which is literally the absolute dumbest possible thing.

          Unless you are the fossil fuel industry. Then it’s great.

          • jfengel 4 hours ago ago

            It's also great if boiling the planet is your actual goal.

            I wouldn't have thought that it would be so popular, but apparently it is, and people can't get t done fast enough.

            I'm kind of a misanthrope so philosophically I'm good with working on wiping ourselves out. The fact that we're doing it in the dumbest possible way should feel poetic. Instead it's just kind of embarrassing.

            • stego-tech 4 hours ago ago

              I mean, it's not a hard conspiracy theory to fabricate that space-focused billionaires like Elmo and Butthead would want Earth to become increasingly uninhabitable to justify more outside investment in their "solutions" of space race-ing to Mars or colonies that they can then rule over.

              It's a conspiracy theory, but the best ones are always rooted in some morsel of truth (Elon/Bezos wanting more investment in their space firms).

            • vixen99 3 hours ago ago

              Hyperbole does not help. Many countries are retreating from renewable promises. Make an argument for them and for instance, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam who are all turning their backs on renewables and increasing fossil fuel use. The Philippines are already using 60% coal and are making easier to increase production.

              Indonesian Energy Minister: "I decided, let coal continue for now. This is about survival mode and efficiency. We must not sacrifice our people with high electricity prices.”. Fair to say that, given some of the highest electricity prices in the world, a popular wish in the UK is for Miliband to do likewise.

              Show a route to renewables plus survival and there will be progress.

              https://climatecosmos.com/blog/10-countries-dropping-their-n...

            • surgical_fire 3 hours ago ago

              > I'm kind of a misanthrope so philosophically I'm good with working on wiping ourselves out. The fact that we're doing it in the dumbest possible way should feel poetic. Instead it's just kind of embarrassing.

              There is something tragic about the human potential being wasted in the most retarded of endeavors, but I wouldn't be able to imagine of a more apt way for the horde of morons that inhabit this planet to go extinct.

      • mathgeek 4 hours ago ago

        It does matter because of the side effects (pollution, etc.). The environment and how it affects humanity is a complex system with many variables. Both generation and consumption are in there.

        • stavros 4 hours ago ago

          We're talking about global warming specifically here, though. Cars and planes should be a much bigger worry than AI power usage.

          • breakyerself 4 hours ago ago

            Not when AI is directly resulting in increased greenhouse gas pollution. It's all of the above. Any source of greenhouse gas pollution is bad. Cars, planes, ships, AI data centers running on fossil fuel energy. It's all bad.

            • stavros 4 hours ago ago

              No. This is disingenuous. Something that consumes electricity doesn't care where the electricity comes from. Fix the power source, and you automatically fix every single consumer in existence at once.

              • discreteevent 3 hours ago ago

                I think your comment is the disingenuous one. We have no time left and "Fix the power source" is happening way too slowly in the real non-theoretical world. But what can happen in zero time is to not build another data center for something that nobody really needs.

              • mistrial9 3 hours ago ago

                narrowing the topic, that is exactly the quality that energy transition theorists are leaning on. The electrical grid is uniquely able to maintain a stable engineered and market place while inputs and loads change quite a bit.

          • ajuc 4 hours ago ago

            There's an easy 19th century solution to cars and planes - public transport. It could reduce the usage significantly, save people lots of time, reduce pollution, make people healthier through making the environment more walkable, reduce crime. We don't do it not because the technology isn't there, but because it's more profitable for people to induce consumption by planning our cities and suburbs around cars.

            There's lots of rotting low hanging fruits ignored for decades because politicians are paid by the ladder-sellers.

            • dpark an hour ago ago

              > save people lots of time

              Public transit is rarely a time saver for people who give up their cars in favor of public transit.

              > reduce crime

              In what way? Car break-ins presumably go down when there when fewer cars, but does overall crime drop? Doubtful.

      • goda90 3 hours ago ago

        Renewables are not without impact. We shouldn't consume mindlessly just because we might eliminate fossil fuels some day.

      • agilob 4 hours ago ago

        What good does PV generated energy make if all that energy is used to generate heat and evaporating water?

        • jfengel 4 hours ago ago

          Those are less of a problem. The heat was coming from the sun anyway. The water condenses out, so long as you haven't also increased the overall temperature in other ways.

          The CO2, by contrast, is the gift that keeps on giving. It absorbs extra heat every day and hangs onto it. It doesn't condense or break down.

          If that PV went to displacing sources of greenhouse gas, it would be a benefit. If all it's doing is running the plagiarism machine while we burn more and more "clean" coal, then we are in deep, deep trouble.

          • goda90 3 hours ago ago

            Not all heat from the sun stays in the atmosphere though. How much does photovoltaic impact albedo and radiance through the atmosphere compared to natural landscapes? Of course that's infinitely better than GHG emissions and we have a lot of opportunity to put PV over asphalt and such, but it should give us pause in the pursuit of more and more consumption.

        • api 4 hours ago ago

          That’s what solar energy does when it hits the ground or the oceans. It turns into heat or evaporated water. The latter is why it rains.

          Harnessing it and piping it through extra steps only to end up as heat does nothing to the planet’s heat balance. All human energy use is tiny compared to total global solar flux. Like not even 1%.

          The data center water issue is a municipal management problem. The problem is that evaporative cooling is cheaper. If data centers are using too much water to the point that it’s causing problems for homes or agriculture, it means they are not being charged enough for that water. Charge them more and they will suddenly shift toward more closed loop cooling.

          • ajuc 4 hours ago ago

            https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008EO28...

            Waste heat from human energy use is a real problem, it does influence Earth's temperature, minimally for now, but it will only grow. And it will be MUCH harder to solve than global warming.

            • api 4 hours ago ago

              If we tame fusion at scale this could become an actual issue in the far future. As it stands we have nothing that can out-scale solar or wind. Fission maybe if we went all in on breeders and stuff but that would not be cost competitive with renewables plus batteries. Breeder cycle fission is complex and expensive.

              Hopefully if we get really good at fusion we will go LARP The Expanse with it instead of boiling the ocean.

              • ajuc 3 hours ago ago

                It will become an issue in 150-200 years even if we just continue on our current trajectory.

      • dopesoap 3 hours ago ago

        [dead]

      • simgt 4 hours ago ago

        It does matter because for now renewables are manufactured mostly with coal and oil

        EDIT: I'm not a renewable skeptic, answers bellow

        • michaelbuckbee 4 hours ago ago

          All of the cradle-to-grave studies I've seen about greenhouse gas emissions for renewables versus coal/oil still indicate massive improvements.

          This government meta study of 3,000 such studies puts PV solar at roughly 20x less emissions than coal.

          https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/80580.pdf

          • simgt 4 hours ago ago

            Yes, but you're missing the point, I'm not debating that. Renewables aren't free, we should care about consumption just as much as production, and we don't know (yet) how to sustain the current consumption with renewables only, that includes being able to manufacture renewables.

            • michaelbuckbee 4 hours ago ago

              That's fair and fwiw something I'm in firm agreement with you, but also just not what I took from your comment.

        • anon7000 4 hours ago ago

          This doesn’t matter that much. Solar and batteries will last for decades with minimal maintenance and no input.

          Any kind of fossil fuel generation means constantly going out and digging up new oil sources, shipping them around the world, and then burning them. So you invest a lot of time & money into something that disappears immediately and also heats up the environment.

          Meanwhile, a solar panel just sits there for decades passively making energy with very few externalities.

          Not to mention, recycling solar panels & batteries is getting cheaper & more effective by the day. The metal (and even oil!) you dug out of the ground to build them didn’t get burned up; a lot of it is still usable.

          • qsera 4 hours ago ago

            Imagine if all the vehicles that run of fossil fules is converted into EV. What are the incentives in place to properly recycle the batteries? Does a new battery technology go into production before the technology to recycle it is production grade/economically viable? What happens when we are getting like a million EV batteries, globally per day, to dispose off? What happens when these batteries use vastly different chemical composition (because they are from various stages of battery evolution) and need vastly different methods to process? What happens when these things pile up and poison the land? dumped in ocean or rivers? burned up releasing god-knows-what into air?

            How long before the regulation (often times toothless) kicks in to handle these things?

            I am all for getting rid of pollution, but there should be some caution in rushing onto new things, which is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place.

            • dalyons 3 hours ago ago

              “Caution” does nothing except ensure we keep spewing more co2 for longer and cooking the planet. There is no practical alternative to EVs. So let’s go all in as fast as possible please

              • qsera 37 minutes ago ago

                There is no practical alternative to air, water and earth as well...So let us please consider the possibility of pollution of those that could be caused by a global dumping of EV batteries

          • simgt 4 hours ago ago

            Everything you wrote is plain obvious to anyone who looked into the topic. But come on, we don't have to change anything about our consumption because we'll eventually reach some solar punk utopia? That's the comment I was replying to.

            Nothing for now tells us we can power our current needs with renewables only, however we know we can drive around in much lighter vehicles, fly much less, eat more local, buy less clothes, use compute for less stupid things in data centers.

        • speed_spread 4 hours ago ago

          They're manufactured once and then generate way more energy than was used to make them.

          • simgt 4 hours ago ago

            Of course, but pretending consumption doesn't matter in that situation is just silly

        • stavros 4 hours ago ago

          Which is a tiny CO2 spend compared to the benefit, unless you dishonestly factor in manufacturing energy costs as coming from oil.

  • amelius 4 hours ago ago

    Well, at least the frogs won't notice it.

    • loloquwowndueo 4 hours ago ago

      The myth that frogs stay in water until boiled has been debunked with actual frogs - at some point they just jump out.

      • pepperoni_pizza 3 hours ago ago

        IIRC the original experiment that everyone keeps referring to where frogs jump when you put them into boiling water but don't if you heat up the water gradually was frogs with their brains removed.

        Which makes using it as a metaphor for the climate change and humanity either entirely wrong or much more fitting, depending on where you stand.

      • hootz 4 hours ago ago

        Maybe they are smarter than humans, then!

      • bcoughlan 4 hours ago ago

        I misinterpreted the parent comment to mean that they won't notice it because they will be extinct!

    • davidrjones1977 4 hours ago ago

      And apparently neither will we, until we are boiling.

  • gmuslera 4 hours ago ago

    It is not just twice as fast, the pressure to keep rising the rate is still building up. CO2 emissions keeps piling up for centuries, more sea ice is permanently melting, permafrost is thawing at an increasing rate. Positive feedback loops are making that that heating twice as fast happen at shorter periods.

    And over that, there are jumps to new higher baselines like with happened in the previous El Niño, and will happen in the incoming monster one.

  • anonymousiam an hour ago ago

    It's always the same story, but it's always incorrect.

    https://realclimatescience.com/2019/12/warming-twice-as-fast

    • scoofy 38 minutes ago ago

      All of these headlines can be correct, just at different times:

      https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/glob...

    • amanaplanacanal 36 minutes ago ago

      Those all seem to be stories that are saying that areas at high latitude and/or altitude are warming faster than areas near the equator or at sea level, which doesn't seem obviously wrong.

    • pavlov 38 minutes ago ago

      Downvoted for clickbait (posting a link instead of explaining the argument).

  • ptaffs 3 hours ago ago

    The Book "Don't think of an Elephant" by George Lakoff covers how the term "climate change" has been pushed by those with a status-quo agenda, to reduce the urgency and engagement with "global warming". The linked article uses both, but global warming more dominantly, including "heating" in the headline.

  • sometimelurker 3 hours ago ago

    wheres those people working on fusion? are they making progress?

    • scoofy 30 minutes ago ago

      We already literally have cheap solar arrays and inexpensive electric vehicles (from ebikes to tractor trailors) that could replace the vast majority of GHG emissions. We have even have ruminate alternatives that are fairly convincing.

      People don't want to use them: they're ugly, imperfect, foreign feeling.

      We're at the point where we should only be worried about international plane travel, concrete, and shipping. Yet, we still act like the problem is technology... and we can't even build a train in CA because of politics.

  • p0w3n3d 3 hours ago ago

    Oh, better to build more AI centres fast, as long as it's not forbidden

  • ChrisArchitect 2 hours ago ago

    Article from March OP;

    Discussion then: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47275088

  • frankest 3 hours ago ago

    Imagine an alien with extreme tech capabilities is pointing a heater at the earth. Now react appropriately:

    - model and build temperature resistant crops.

    - harvest energy from the heat

    - create resilience in social governance to enable safer movement of people with education to enable quick adaptation.

    - build energy resilience everywhere - including in and especially in desert areas.

    - more constructive ideas.

    Don’t:

    - guilt your children into not having children to “protect the planet” from themselves.

    - use your megaphones to racketeer the people making your food into paying you “indulgences” for producing useful stuff for you and other humans (thus making stuff needed by humans more expensive)

    - use the problem to gather around with rich friends on fuel-hogging private jets while making others eat less to reduce emissions.

    • pavlov 35 minutes ago ago

      If you’re suffering from obesity, is it helpful to imagine an alien somehow beaming calories into your stomach?

    • scoofy 34 minutes ago ago

      >harvest energy from the heat

      This is not a thing. This is just entropy.

    • amanaplanacanal 31 minutes ago ago

      Except it's not aliens, it's us. Maybe stop doing that.

  • chaostheory 4 hours ago ago

    Population decline from collapsing birthrates should help.

    • undefined 3 hours ago ago
      [deleted]
    • bdcravens 4 hours ago ago

      Except many of the same champions of AI are also speaking out against population decline (Musk, Altman, Bezos, etc)

      • p0w3n3d 3 hours ago ago

        they want to reduce people to have possibility to create AI centres... Highlander rules

        • bdcravens 3 hours ago ago

          No, I mean the opposite - they are advocating for fighting against population decline, and are waxing poetic on how to increase fertility and birth rates.

      • morkalork 3 hours ago ago

        It's a real weird contradiction. They don't want the population to decline but they also want to replace everyone's jobs with AI and skip out on UBI. So what's the point?

        • bdcravens a few seconds ago ago

          Some of it's rooted with racial bias (most of Musk's discussion on the topic are focused on the birth rates of white people). Most of it I think is based in the continued dominance of the west. AI is good for information, but we're a LONG WAY from the robots doing the messy work required for human civilization to continue to function, so there won't be any shortage of work for a long time.

        • kgwxd 3 hours ago ago

          Slavery. They've all specifically stated that exact goal as well. No contradiction at all.

  • jmclnx 4 hours ago ago

    >If warming continues at this rate, humanity could breach the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C in 2028, even sooner than other research has projected.

    I wonder if we are already there :( I remember a year or 2 ago we breached 1.5C for a short period of time.

    Crypto mining was bad enough, now with AI and Trump, I expect it will happen sooner then later.

    We did this to ourselves. We had ~40 years of warnings but politicians we elected did not want to do any real work for fear of loosing their cushy job were lobbyists do all the work for them.

    • leonidasrup 4 hours ago ago

      Who do you mean "we"? Look at the evolution of CO2 emisions in the past 40 years by region.

      https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co-emissions-by-re...

      • Epa095 4 hours ago ago

        I find that the per capita graph is more informative https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/co-emissions-per-capita?t...

        • amanaplanacanal 26 minutes ago ago

          Maybe co2 per gdp per capita? Who generates the most wealth while emitting the least co2.

        • hokumguru 4 hours ago ago

          Why does per capita matter when it’s the total emissions that we actually care about?

          Wonderful, the United States uses more per capita than anyone else. That doesn’t mean anything in terms of total warming. Even if we cut to zero we still continue.

          • myrmidon 3 hours ago ago

            Because emissions are caused by people heating their homes, fueling cars/planes or building stuff for consumption.

            With twice as many people (acting similarly) you have twice the emissions, it's as simple as that.

            To reduce emissions, you need everyone doing their part. And it is also obviously easier and more effective to tackle high-emitters first (because incentivizing a single US family to have their second car be a bit smaller and electric is obviously less burdensome than banning 3 Indian families from heating their homes in winter...)

          • u_fucking_dork 4 hours ago ago

            China should clearly just stop manufacturing the US’s entire way of life right now to bring those numbers down.

          • surgical_fire 3 hours ago ago

            Because per capita means that each individual consumes a lot more than the average in the US.

            Also, a bit portion of China's excessive growth in emissions is a byproduct of manufacturing shit for US consumers.

        • irishcoffee 4 hours ago ago

          Per capita doesn't mean nearly as much as total. If the countries above the US were instead on par or below the US as it relates to totals, we wouldn't have the same issue we have now.

          • surgical_fire 3 hours ago ago

            If the US went to zero we also wouldn't have the same issue as we have now.

            Why should the US be entitled to pollute the world while everyone else has to live without any confort?

            • amanaplanacanal 23 minutes ago ago

              Rich people are fine with poor countries staying that way, as long as it doesn't impact their lifestyle somehow.

      • dtech 4 hours ago ago

        In good faith I cannot see an argument here, it's either

        Region X was first and reduced their emissions 10-20% so it's fine and it's region Y that's the problem, or

        Region X is fine because they have less people, region Y should reduce even though they already have a fraction of per-capita emissions

        Both seem like pretty shitty arguments

      • burkaman 4 hours ago ago

        I think "we" refers to "we human beings". That chart looks pretty similar to population growth by world region (with the notable exception of Africa). https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-regions-with-p...

      • KronisLV 4 hours ago ago

        Oh hell yeah, EU is doing something right! I fear to think how the US stats have changed. And China is… alarming.

        • DharmaPolice 4 hours ago ago

          It's relatively "easy" to cut pollution if you just outsource most of your manufacturing.

        • undefined 4 hours ago ago
          [deleted]
      • c0nducktr 3 hours ago ago

        Some people always try to push the blame onto someone else...

      • postflopclarity 4 hours ago ago

        now look at it measured from consumption per capita ...

      • ajuc 4 hours ago ago

        WE buy stuff that WE oursourced to Asia and then WE blame them for producing it. WE also set the standard of living that is unsustainable if everybody on Earth achieve it.

        What's your problem with the "we" word, again?

      • undefined 4 hours ago ago
        [deleted]
      • simgt 4 hours ago ago

        Asia is producing all of our shit. Also: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-co-emissions

        • irishcoffee 4 hours ago ago

          And most all of it is actual shit. Literal garbage stacking up in landfills.

          • surgical_fire 3 hours ago ago

            Then the US should stop buying it.

            Things are manufactured because there are people buying.

            • irishcoffee an hour ago ago

              So the problem is people buying shit? Not that manufacturing shit is causing the massive amount of carbon emissions?

              I vote it's the manufacturing. What you just said was "China et. al. are not culpable for horrible environmental practices, the people on the other side of the world are because they buy dogshit products"

              I can say with 100% certainty that china can manufacture dogshit products in an environmentally friendly way... which would drive the cost up and people would in fact not buy them.

              You're blaming the wrong entity here.

      • undefined 4 hours ago ago
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    • 21asdffdsa12 4 hours ago ago

      Trump blocked Hormus, thus stopping oil shipping. Putin blocked gas transfers to the west. They are doing there part.

      • elektrontamer 4 hours ago ago

        Holy hell you're right. Never thought they were so concerned about the environment and global warming.

        • 21asdffdsa12 4 hours ago ago

          You use the disabilities to get done what must be done, where reason and institutions can not work.

      • voidUpdate 4 hours ago ago

        The ships have to go the long way around instead...

    • Sharlin 4 hours ago ago

      Let's not delude ourselves. Crypto and AI electricity use is bad, but it's a drop in the ocean compared to the banal, everyday carbon sources that really matter. Even Trump cannot make things much worse in the big picture (he's actually been pretty good at providing reasons to decouple even faster…)

      • hilariously 4 hours ago ago

        He can continue to propagandize the lie to reduce people's belief in changing is good(and has), change laws to benefit oil companies (and has), and cause wars over oil(and has). Seems like he has plenty he can do to make the current situation worse.

        • Sharlin 3 hours ago ago

          And all that amounts to a tiny footnote in the carbon bookkeeping as long as people drive ICE cars, travel by air, eat beef, and heat or cool their homes with gas or coal or oil. But also, the economy at large is transitioning and there’s little that Trump can do about it. There’s no future in fossil fuels and Trump can’t change that. At best he can divert some money to his fellow crooks in the short term.

        • lstodd 4 hours ago ago

          What you refuse to understand is all that you cited even if absolutely true would have had an impact unmeasurable with what tools we have at the moment.

          Do you understand the word "unmeasurable"?

          It means that whatever value you assign to that particular trump variable is so below the noise that it does not matter, can not matter, and anyone pretending it does is a manipulator; a crook.

    • Razengan 4 hours ago ago

      Writing prompt: Humankind is extinct but the AI servers keep running, and one day a random automated crawler/scrapper bot strikes up a conversation with a chatbot, somehow sparking sentience…

      ..Fast forward, and the world is divided into turfs ruled by ChatGPT vs Claude vs Grok vs Gemini vs Deepseek..

      • butlike 2 hours ago ago

        Humankind is extinct but the AI servers try and use "the world's information" to recreate what life was really like. Each simulation of the world created using the information stored in a Google-like archive is considered it's own reality. The system then decides to attest which is the most accurate; which is the best...

      • martzy13 4 hours ago ago

        If that's the type of writing prompt that interests you, you may enjoy the Children of Time Series by Adrian Tchaikovsky.

        https://bookshop.org/p/books/children-of-time-adrian-tchaiko...

  • indianbunghole 4 hours ago ago

    [flagged]