If he is successful that would provide a road map for other nations to turn away from US hegemony and make deeper connections with Europe instead. Probably makes it easier that Canada is western and a commonwealth country. Carney definitely has the experience and connections in Europe to have a good chance at success.
Go look up what the U.S. was demanding by the end of the recent trade negotiations. They wanted Canada to give up its ability to set its own cultural and trade policy independent of the U.S.. That's a huge step to becoming, not the 51st state, but a protectorate. We wouldn't even have been the Puerto Rico of the North!
Lost jobs can be created again, but signing away sovereignty is not reversible. If the democrats take over in 2028, they're not going to give back what we let Trump take. We know that from past history. We also know, from very recent history, that giving Trump everything he asks for would likely not have spared us. If we had capitulated he'd just come up with new demands.
When your largest trading partner violates its signed commitments and betrays you, there may simply be no way out that doesn't involve some pain.
I wasn't able to go look up the deal. Please explain to me - because last I checked it was being kept confidential by Carney's party while the opposition party is asking for it to be released
I don't trust either of them to be honest, which is why I want the actual deal released to the opposition party so that the parliamentary system can function as intended
It's the current CPC line of attack. A month or so ago they tried arguing that Carney, a former governor of two national banks, is worse at economics than a career politician. That didn't go well. Now they're trying to make the case that some kind of conspiracy is going on because a working agreement, which probably isn't in a neat and tidy state and which would probably embarrass and anger the Americans if released in full, wasn't immediately sent to the press.
It's the CPC's job to be critical of Carney. It's everyone else's job to decide when their arguments are grounded in reality.
The US demanded Canada to give up its sovereignty and become the equivalent of the 51st state. Clearly when a country attempts to force you to do that, it’s time to accelerate decoupling and find allies with other rational counterparties (which Carney is doing). There are other countries that can and will buy Canadian exports.
Signing away sovereignty is exactly what happens when you get in bed with the EU. That's even the prerequisite to become a member as EU laws take precedence over your own laws by default.
They make it also extremely hard to leave once you are in it.
If your concern was to keep your sovereignty you should have chosen to play the game like India and basically stay in the middle without picking a side while all sides compete for your trade dollars.
You do know that the end goal of the EU is to form some sort of super state like the US of Europe right? You may not end up being the 51st state of the US but you could very well end up as the 28th province of the EU commandeered by Brussels.
Carney is pursuing what he calls "associate membership", which has yet to be defined[1]. If the EU wants to form the backbone of a group of middle powers that can hold their own against superpowers like China, as Carney has suggested in the past, they are motivated to offer a deal that doesn't include unacceptable loss of sovereignty. If they can do that, other nations might follow Canada's lead.
One thing the EU has not done is threaten to use economic coercion to force annexation, as the U.S. has done repeatedly. If becoming an associate member of the EU involves some loss of sovereignty, it will probably be less than we'd surrender by choosing not to diversify our trade away from the U.S..
Canada also had a deal they signed with Trump. Then he changed his mind and pretended (or not) he’s to demented to remember it he and not Biden agreed to deal. Then he made other proposals then randomly changed his mind again and again.
There is nothing rational about this, he’s bullying Canada because he has much more leverage over it than he has over China and Europe. Albeit he messed up the global oil supply to fuck with both of them ( and bailed out the Russian economy from collapse while he was at it) or maybe he’s just cluelessly blundered into it, who knows)
As a fellow Canadian I think you have a misunderstanding of what’s at stake here. There is potential to lose tens of thousands of jobs by agreeing to the bad deal the american’s proposed.
Yeah 51st state governer carney. This guy is deadly serious. Deals hammered out with Trump are not worth the paper they’re written on. Besides that Trump has already violated CUSMA a deal he signed himself and has invoked ridiculous laws to punish Canada while lying through his teeth the entire time.
> Every other country, including most of Europe, has hammered out some kind of deal with America
So did Canada, and Trump wiped his ass with the deal the moment he needed a distraction from another scandal. Canada is lucky to have leadership that understands the next "deal" will be equally disposable to America.
The St. Lawrence Seaway traffic isn't at Vancouver levels, but it's far from negligible.
In the relatively long-term, I'm also interested to see what's going to happen with the expansions at Churchill. It's still certainly small right now but there's an interesting opportunity going the northern route.
It's been some years but when visiting Quebec there seemed to be a noticable push to have Quebec align with the EU. I remember the Quebec and EU flags hanging on buildings, etc.
I've never seen this out west before (I'm in Alberta), so my guess would be that it's related to the sovereignty movement [0] rather than some broader grassroots movement to join the EU. But I could be wrong here.
I don't think it has to do with the sovereignist movement but I could be wrong too. It could be related to some relations between Quebec and the EU, especially francophone countrys?
Can’t read the article nor I can find an archive link, but all of that is just a show. People underestimate how deeply interconnected the US and Cananda in so many ways, especially the critical infrastructure, decoupling that will need at least 10y of dedicated work, choose any sector, utility grid? Most hardware and software is relying on US based products, US can literally turn off the grid in minutes if anything got serious, same goes with other sectors, and no, boycotting US alcohol isn’t one if them. Sure, using that membership as a pressure tactic and all is worth the try, but realistically, the impact is not high.
Even more reason to show that Canada is making a strategic decision. Both of them are so coupled to each other that they can't afford to hurt the other without hurting themselves. But now that the US has shown it's willingness for self harm, Canada is making a strategic decision to safeguard their survival.
That would be correct if it is within Canada, not jumping on another entity like Europe or China to substitute. Canada is decades behind when it comes to manufacturing or development of hardware or software, Canada economy is based on services, realesate, and a bit of resources export. Canada economy is a repellent to startups, and if any local startup manages to get slightly bigger, they move to the states to sustain and grow or they will declare bankruptcy within the first 5 years.
I don't follow, what would the strategy be? Canada can change it's internal policy, but still relies on free trade with the US. Until then, what they need is partnership with other countries to offload potential instabilities that will be caused by the US during its tantrum.
I don't foresee Canada completely removing trade with US anyways, more of a hedging move to reach out and diversify trade.
Agreeing with you. Trump's attitude on the global stage has been to disrespect, insult and threaten every ally. Come at everyone with a "we're better than you" attitude and show that he can't be trusted. The only rational response is to take steps to be more independent and find ways to work around the US. What's the alternative? Give in to a narcissistic bully who won't keep his word and will inevitably come asking for more later?
In the medium to long term, Trump is very old, his approval ratings are in the toilet. I hope that the democrats do well in the midterms and put up a viable candidate to beat him next election (if he's still alive). I also hope that the republicans manage to put up someone smarter and less morally reprehensible next time. Because I mean, this guy doesn't actually represent any kind of conservative ideal in any way.
The only people he appeals to are those one or two standard deviations on the left of the bell curve.
If the next US president is halfway sane, Canada and the US will likely begin to repair trade relationships, but I think that Canada and the rest of the world will be a bit more careful next time. The US may never regain the international standing they enjoyed before. Trump has made China look like the more stable and rational trading partner, and accelerated the decline of the US.
The dependency goes both ways. We could cut off potash and they'd starve. We could cut off the oil and electricity. We could cut off steel and aluminum. The response would not be pleasant, but neither can they afford to risk our response. As dire as the trade-war seems, it doesn't affect even 5% of cross-border trade. No matter what Trump claims about "not needing" anything Canada has, we are dependent on each other.
Broadening our trade is similar to building a new oil pipeline. Nobody is sure a new pipeline will ever pay for itself, but one we started a decade ago would be making us a fortune right now. Trade diversification won't help us much in the current trade war, but it could help us out considerably in the next one.
Trump is a symptom, not the root cause. He may die of old age soon and MAGA may go dormant for a few years if the midterms and/or 2028 election beat them down sufficiently, but they'll be back eventually with some other clown at the helm. Americans voted Trump in twice. They'll vote clown again, and having options will help Canada when that happens. American checks and balances no longer work. If we'd known this was going to happen ten years ago we'd be in a better position today. Now we know it's likely to happen again in another ten or twenty years, so we'd be fools not to prepare.
The most similar antecedent I can think of is Huey Long. That was 90 years ago. Whatever it is that Trump has, people that have that seem to be fairly rare.
Well they can be betting that Republicans will lose in a couple of months and the congress will have the guts to stop him from constantly imposing entirely illegal tariffs on random countries for no reason.
If he is successful that would provide a road map for other nations to turn away from US hegemony and make deeper connections with Europe instead. Probably makes it easier that Canada is western and a commonwealth country. Carney definitely has the experience and connections in Europe to have a good chance at success.
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Go look up what the U.S. was demanding by the end of the recent trade negotiations. They wanted Canada to give up its ability to set its own cultural and trade policy independent of the U.S.. That's a huge step to becoming, not the 51st state, but a protectorate. We wouldn't even have been the Puerto Rico of the North!
Lost jobs can be created again, but signing away sovereignty is not reversible. If the democrats take over in 2028, they're not going to give back what we let Trump take. We know that from past history. We also know, from very recent history, that giving Trump everything he asks for would likely not have spared us. If we had capitulated he'd just come up with new demands.
When your largest trading partner violates its signed commitments and betrays you, there may simply be no way out that doesn't involve some pain.
I wasn't able to go look up the deal. Please explain to me - because last I checked it was being kept confidential by Carney's party while the opposition party is asking for it to be released
They came for the frenchies and that was truly a bridge too far
Carney made it pretty clear what was in the deal. I don’t understand why you believe Trump who lies every time he opens his mouth?
I don't trust either of them to be honest, which is why I want the actual deal released to the opposition party so that the parliamentary system can function as intended
It's the current CPC line of attack. A month or so ago they tried arguing that Carney, a former governor of two national banks, is worse at economics than a career politician. That didn't go well. Now they're trying to make the case that some kind of conspiracy is going on because a working agreement, which probably isn't in a neat and tidy state and which would probably embarrass and anger the Americans if released in full, wasn't immediately sent to the press.
It's the CPC's job to be critical of Carney. It's everyone else's job to decide when their arguments are grounded in reality.
https://www.ft.com/content/c806d2ce-efed-47a0-9abb-508e218b6...
The US demanded Canada to give up its sovereignty and become the equivalent of the 51st state. Clearly when a country attempts to force you to do that, it’s time to accelerate decoupling and find allies with other rational counterparties (which Carney is doing). There are other countries that can and will buy Canadian exports.
The US overplayed its hand, as is tradition.
> signing away sovereignty is not reversible
Signing away sovereignty is exactly what happens when you get in bed with the EU. That's even the prerequisite to become a member as EU laws take precedence over your own laws by default.
They make it also extremely hard to leave once you are in it.
If your concern was to keep your sovereignty you should have chosen to play the game like India and basically stay in the middle without picking a side while all sides compete for your trade dollars.
You do know that the end goal of the EU is to form some sort of super state like the US of Europe right? You may not end up being the 51st state of the US but you could very well end up as the 28th province of the EU commandeered by Brussels.
Carney is pursuing what he calls "associate membership", which has yet to be defined[1]. If the EU wants to form the backbone of a group of middle powers that can hold their own against superpowers like China, as Carney has suggested in the past, they are motivated to offer a deal that doesn't include unacceptable loss of sovereignty. If they can do that, other nations might follow Canada's lead.
One thing the EU has not done is threaten to use economic coercion to force annexation, as the U.S. has done repeatedly. If becoming an associate member of the EU involves some loss of sovereignty, it will probably be less than we'd surrender by choosing not to diversify our trade away from the U.S..
___________________
[1]https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/carney-pushes-idea-ma...
Canada also had a deal they signed with Trump. Then he changed his mind and pretended (or not) he’s to demented to remember it he and not Biden agreed to deal. Then he made other proposals then randomly changed his mind again and again.
There is nothing rational about this, he’s bullying Canada because he has much more leverage over it than he has over China and Europe. Albeit he messed up the global oil supply to fuck with both of them ( and bailed out the Russian economy from collapse while he was at it) or maybe he’s just cluelessly blundered into it, who knows)
As a fellow Canadian I think you have a misunderstanding of what’s at stake here. There is potential to lose tens of thousands of jobs by agreeing to the bad deal the american’s proposed.
You seem to forget that Canada was one of the first countries to strike a deal with Trump.
The he unilaterally scrapped the deal because of “fentanyl”.
Yeah 51st state governer carney. This guy is deadly serious. Deals hammered out with Trump are not worth the paper they’re written on. Besides that Trump has already violated CUSMA a deal he signed himself and has invoked ridiculous laws to punish Canada while lying through his teeth the entire time.
What do you expect Carney to do what that!?
> Every other country, including most of Europe, has hammered out some kind of deal with America
So did Canada, and Trump wiped his ass with the deal the moment he needed a distraction from another scandal. Canada is lucky to have leadership that understands the next "deal" will be equally disposable to America.
> look I'm no fan of Trump, but…
Stopped reading
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Maybe Carney needs to post the kind of macho memes that Trump does for you to take him seriously.
Shame that the Canadians don't have any significant ports open towards the Atlantic. Vancouver dwarfs everything.
The St. Lawrence Seaway traffic isn't at Vancouver levels, but it's far from negligible.
In the relatively long-term, I'm also interested to see what's going to happen with the expansions at Churchill. It's still certainly small right now but there's an interesting opportunity going the northern route.
It's been some years but when visiting Quebec there seemed to be a noticable push to have Quebec align with the EU. I remember the Quebec and EU flags hanging on buildings, etc.
I've never seen this out west before (I'm in Alberta), so my guess would be that it's related to the sovereignty movement [0] rather than some broader grassroots movement to join the EU. But I could be wrong here.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_sovereignty_movement
I don't think it has to do with the sovereignist movement but I could be wrong too. It could be related to some relations between Quebec and the EU, especially francophone countrys?
Can’t read the article nor I can find an archive link, but all of that is just a show. People underestimate how deeply interconnected the US and Cananda in so many ways, especially the critical infrastructure, decoupling that will need at least 10y of dedicated work, choose any sector, utility grid? Most hardware and software is relying on US based products, US can literally turn off the grid in minutes if anything got serious, same goes with other sectors, and no, boycotting US alcohol isn’t one if them. Sure, using that membership as a pressure tactic and all is worth the try, but realistically, the impact is not high.
Even more reason to show that Canada is making a strategic decision. Both of them are so coupled to each other that they can't afford to hurt the other without hurting themselves. But now that the US has shown it's willingness for self harm, Canada is making a strategic decision to safeguard their survival.
> making a strategic decision.
That would be correct if it is within Canada, not jumping on another entity like Europe or China to substitute. Canada is decades behind when it comes to manufacturing or development of hardware or software, Canada economy is based on services, realesate, and a bit of resources export. Canada economy is a repellent to startups, and if any local startup manages to get slightly bigger, they move to the states to sustain and grow or they will declare bankruptcy within the first 5 years.
I don't follow, what would the strategy be? Canada can change it's internal policy, but still relies on free trade with the US. Until then, what they need is partnership with other countries to offload potential instabilities that will be caused by the US during its tantrum.
I don't foresee Canada completely removing trade with US anyways, more of a hedging move to reach out and diversify trade.
Agreeing with you. Trump's attitude on the global stage has been to disrespect, insult and threaten every ally. Come at everyone with a "we're better than you" attitude and show that he can't be trusted. The only rational response is to take steps to be more independent and find ways to work around the US. What's the alternative? Give in to a narcissistic bully who won't keep his word and will inevitably come asking for more later?
In the medium to long term, Trump is very old, his approval ratings are in the toilet. I hope that the democrats do well in the midterms and put up a viable candidate to beat him next election (if he's still alive). I also hope that the republicans manage to put up someone smarter and less morally reprehensible next time. Because I mean, this guy doesn't actually represent any kind of conservative ideal in any way. The only people he appeals to are those one or two standard deviations on the left of the bell curve.
If the next US president is halfway sane, Canada and the US will likely begin to repair trade relationships, but I think that Canada and the rest of the world will be a bit more careful next time. The US may never regain the international standing they enjoyed before. Trump has made China look like the more stable and rational trading partner, and accelerated the decline of the US.
> The US may never regain the international standing they enjoyed before.
The US has been in decline for decades. Trump is just the latest leader while it's happening, and seems to be accelerating the process.
Like you say, I can't really see it ever regaining the (positive?) "international standing" it used to have, even after new leadership is in place.
The dependency goes both ways. We could cut off potash and they'd starve. We could cut off the oil and electricity. We could cut off steel and aluminum. The response would not be pleasant, but neither can they afford to risk our response. As dire as the trade-war seems, it doesn't affect even 5% of cross-border trade. No matter what Trump claims about "not needing" anything Canada has, we are dependent on each other.
Broadening our trade is similar to building a new oil pipeline. Nobody is sure a new pipeline will ever pay for itself, but one we started a decade ago would be making us a fortune right now. Trade diversification won't help us much in the current trade war, but it could help us out considerably in the next one.
Trump is a symptom, not the root cause. He may die of old age soon and MAGA may go dormant for a few years if the midterms and/or 2028 election beat them down sufficiently, but they'll be back eventually with some other clown at the helm. Americans voted Trump in twice. They'll vote clown again, and having options will help Canada when that happens. American checks and balances no longer work. If we'd known this was going to happen ten years ago we'd be in a better position today. Now we know it's likely to happen again in another ten or twenty years, so we'd be fools not to prepare.
Trump, or Krasnov is a bit of an aberration. Once he goes I don't think we'll see his like for a while.
The most similar antecedent I can think of is Huey Long. That was 90 years ago. Whatever it is that Trump has, people that have that seem to be fairly rare.
Well they can be betting that Republicans will lose in a couple of months and the congress will have the guts to stop him from constantly imposing entirely illegal tariffs on random countries for no reason.
Re reading the article, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bypass_Paywalls_Clean works
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